jsong727 (16 posts)  10/27/2012 9:50 PM

Harden traded for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and future picks

So looks like his value just got a huge bump, now who else benefits

cbrook824 (10 posts)  10/27/2012 10:11 PM

I think you have to bump up Westbrook and Ibaka.

castorius (78 posts)  10/27/2012 10:13 PM

I'm thinking this trade gives Harden a nice boost, since he'll likely be starting at SG now and will probably be the Rockets' primary scorer.  But, his percentages may take a slight hit, since he, along with Lin will be the primary focus of the opposing defense.

This probably drops Kevin Martin's production a little bit, since he'll be 3rd fiddle or worse on the Thunder.  Perhaps he'll have better percentages (FG% and 3PT%) with Durant and Westbrook getting all the attention, he should see a lot of open jumpers.

Jeremy Lamb didn't have much stock, but any hope that he might eventually crack the starting lineup or fight for minutes is all but gone.  He'll likely be buried on the Thunders' bench this season and only get development minutes.

I'm not quite sure if this affects Jeremy Lin in a positive or negative way.  On one end, I could see him getting less points than he was originally projected.  However, I could see him being a bit more efficient and maybe get a slight bump in his assists.

What do you guys think?

amsid (33 posts)  10/27/2012 10:20 PM

I too cannot decide if Lin will benefit or not. He'll definitely have less of the ball, but that could also mean his %'s and TOs improve.

Quest28412 (16 posts)  10/27/2012 10:26 PM

I started my draft at 8:30 tonight and took Harden with the 32nd pick.  Hopefully he'll end up being an even bigger bargain than I thought he was when I grabbed him three hours ago. Given the other players around him in Houston, he's got to get a ton of minutes, right?

ferris (307 posts)  10/27/2012 10:34 PM

harden at 32 is insane

i thought harden was overrated at 15 or so but, with 20% more mpg, we might really see something

doublea71 (16 posts)  10/27/2012 10:46 PM

Wow, Quest - that's some serious luck you just ingested! I think he'll be borderline 1st/2nd round value this year and perhaps give you what a healthy Eric Gordon produces. The Thunder made out pretty well in this trade despite giving up the best player involved - they also got 2 future first-rounders besides Lamb and Martin. Lamb gives them insurance if Martin is banged up and is probably a better defender than Martin already.

homer35h (12 posts)  10/27/2012 10:48 PM

It will be hes team I would have no problem taking him in the last 1st or early 2nd.

jsong727 (16 posts)  10/27/2012 10:49 PM

@cbrook824 - I agree with Westbrook getting a bump in assists and points now that he'll get more ball handling duties, but he's to's are probably going to shoot through the roof. I'm not so sure about ibaka since harden was really great at running the pick and roll with him.

@amsid - I think Lin will benefit with him sharing ball handling duties with james harden. I'd expect lower TO's but a slight dip in assists with a few more spot up opportunities with Harden on the floor. But i think its Asik who will win the most since he now has a two guards who are good at running the pick and roll (Harden being the better).

kslight (999 posts)  10/27/2012 10:52 PM

I'll update the rosters, and Matt will be along to perform the analysis and projection updates.

Da Ruhl (173 posts)  10/27/2012 11:24 PM

Anybody have a read on how much Martin drops?

-DR

circatbs (29 posts)  10/28/2012 12:11 AM

I don't think Martin drops much, he should be able to match last year's production with maybe a slight drop in PPG and a slight raise in FG%. 

Harden, however, is probably a top ten player now. 

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/28/2012 12:24 AM

I think this does hurt Martin.  Harden was the leader and facilitator of the 2nd team.  He wasn't a starter - Sefalosha was.  I doubt Martin is going to start ahead of Sefalosha when Harden wasn't.  So Martin goes to the 2nd team, Eric Maynor who's the backup PG is now the facilitator on the 2nd team, and Martin is relegated to backup duty. 

I think Martin's minutes drop to 28-30.  I also see the Thunder attempting to develop Lamb as Martin is in the last year of his contract at 13 mil a year, and not likely to be kept by Okc.  If they weren't willing to pay Harden 15/year, why pay Martin 13/year?

odin426 (393 posts)  10/28/2012 12:33 AM

Seems like hardens offensive role could really increase, I see him shooting close to 13 shots attempted per game and have good percentages. And he really distributes the ball well I think 

Peter Porker (19 posts)  10/28/2012 12:34 AM

bruin99--Good point about Martin maybe droppping in minutes.  I do think it'll help Lin, as the defense won't be able to key in on him as much.  He should put up a more efficient stat line.

Westbrook seems poised for an uptick. Ibaka has had a great preseason, and I don't know how much he'll benefit from this move. 

patentboy23 (57 posts)  10/28/2012 12:52 AM

I got very lucky and took him at the 20th pick and found out near the end of the draft he was drafted.  Definitely think he returns 1st round value now with 5-6 mins more court time.  If he maintains the efficiency or close to it, he's def. in the top 10 this year.

mbuser (4328 posts)  10/28/2012 1:36 AM

So I go to a dinner party with my gf for a change and this goes down Getting into the projections now, will work on some blurbs afterward.

sfield001 (16 posts)  10/28/2012 1:52 AM

Didn't Aldrich and Lazar get traded too in the deal??

ferris (307 posts)  10/28/2012 3:05 AM

harden has some unreal stats when playing without westbrook and durant on the floor -- you should check out a post in the harden thread at rotoworld by rico381 -- it might make matt think twice about only giving harden a gentle upward nudge -- didn't want to copy the post here as i am not sure what the rules are

mbuser (4328 posts)  10/28/2012 4:04 AM

Okay, OKC/HOU depth and projections are updated. New projections put Harden at 13th overall. Obviously volume is up but I don't see how the efficiency doesn't take a pretty good hit. I won't argue if you have him ahead of some typical late-Rd1 selections just on upsideyness. Lin does a bit less and should be a bit more efficient, so no real up/down movement for him. The offense is certainly more dynamic now, and Asik does get a mention because of a few more easy looks at the rim with Harden replacing Martin. This deal gives the Rockets 19 players on the roster - they'll need to cut at least four by Monday.

OKC I docked Westbrook's FG% enough to push him down to 9th in per-game ranks, but gave a few more AST and note that 6-10 is a very tightly-clustered group. I shaved a bit off Durant's FG%, as well, but not enough to drop him off the No.1 perch. Kev Martin will shoot less than he's used to, and his per-game numbers have tumbled a bit. Not too much notable for the Thunder otherwise except that this team's bandwagon just lost a lot of people.

And ferris, I've been aware of the +/- stats for some time - as a matter of fact, I tweeted about them on Sept 19 link

rico381 (279 posts)  10/28/2012 4:49 AM

Since Ferris mentioned it, here's what I posted in the RW thread:

Wow, this is a terrible trade for OKC. James Harden is an absolutely amazing player, and his ability to get layups, free throws, and threes makes him one of the best offensive players in the league. For those wondering whether he can be a #1 option, you haven't been paying attention. For a lot of the time when he was on the floor, he was the #1 option already, and he was an absolute stud.

Here are his numbers with Westbrook on/off the floor. Nearly 40% of Harden's minutes were without Westbrook, and in that time he averaged 29.0 points per 36 minutes, with 52% FGs, 2.6 threes made per 36, and 11.1 FTA per 36.

Here are the numbers without Durant (and just about all of that time was without Westbrook too.) That made up a little more than 25% of his minutes, and in that time he averaged 31.2 points per 36 minutes on 53% shooting, with 2.7 threes made per 36, and 12.5 FTA per 36.

Basically, when Harden gets to be the #1 option, and doesn't have to deal with Westbrook making bad decisions, he puts up offensive production that blows Durant's averages out of the water, and is quite possibly the best in the league. He turns it into a situation where he just controls the ball (with quite a bit of help from Nick Collison's great screens), and nearly every possession ends with a layup, free throws, or a three-pointer. That's basically the entire goal of a team's offense, to get efficient shots, and all Harden does is create those shots, over and over again. Daryl Morey finally got his superstar.

tonika_zr (991 posts)  10/28/2012 4:54 AM

Got him for 8 months rental

dasein (615 posts)  10/28/2012 5:21 AM

Got him for 8 months rental

No way. Houston wouldn't do this deal unless he was going to sign the extention, which will happen within a couple of days so you won't have to wait long to see. 

A pretty nice trade for both sides. OKC wasn't going to get another superstar back because they would then have to pay them superstar money too, when the whole reason for doing the trade was...well, not wanting to pay superstar money. It shows the owners don't have the dollars to hang with the big boys, but they did pretty well out of this anyway. They get a nice veteran for this year that should slide right in, a very nice rookie prospect at the same position, and another couple of 1st rounders- both of which may be in the lottery. Again, this is more or less what Orlando could have had for Dwight but they prefered Arron Freaking Afflalo. 

You could argue the zombies might have been better off keeping Harden and trading Westbrook, but that's kinda moot now. 

The rockets were going to be a fun team anyway, but they just got a lot more fun with the beard. I've taken Harden in the mid 2nd round of my last 2 drafts, and I'd be pretty confident taking him late in the 1st now. 

tonika_zr (991 posts)  10/28/2012 6:03 AM

Just wait and you will see Das, OKC offer was 53-55 mil. (4yrs) range and now he will accept max to play in Houston??? 

Daryl has gambled and he will lost that bet.

During the summer more than once he stated that would love to come back in Phoenix if contract extension with OKC doesnt work out.

I have no doubt he will not sign max one for Houston.

# 22686 (64 posts)  10/28/2012 6:28 AM

@rico381 : the one caveat with those numbers is quite a lot of time spent without Durant or Westbrook is spent playing against the second unit of the opposition. I think he'll do very well, however I don't think he ones anywhere close to the per 36 numbers that you've quoted.

i had him the last two years and his growth was phenominal. I think it will take quite some time for him to be able to adjust defense by the first unit and game plans designed to stop him.  The one X-factor here is Lin who's a better passer than Westbrook

Melo (21 posts)  10/28/2012 8:10 AM

Should I play Harden this week? I'm not sure if he'll be playing the season opener.

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  10/28/2012 10:55 AM

Harden turned down 54 mill over 4 years from OKC. Houston will sign him to a 60 mill 4 year deal. Why did OKC let him walk for 6 million dollars? it is the luxury tax that is coming. With Durant, Rusty, Ibaka getting big deals they could not afford a max Harden. Soon the luxury tax will be dollar for dollar. So Hardens extra six million would cost OKC 12 million. Houston has used this 3 times already. Asik went to Houston when Chicago didn't want to get doubled in 3 years. Lin went to Houston when the Knicks did not want to get get doubled in 3 years. The funny thing is Houston is in great shape. Harden is the lone superstar build around player, Asik and Lin have reasonable 3 year contracts so Houston is prolly not done. Houston gets to average Lin and Asik out over the length of their contracts, so the third year poison pill Chicago and New York faced doesn't affect Houston. Houston's GM is easily GM of the year.

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/28/2012 11:06 AM

Harden is a restricted free agent (unless this trade changes that).  So after this season anyone can offer Harden what they want, but as long as Houston matches it, he stays in Houston.  And since Houston is willing to match it, no risk in him going elsewhere.

jphanned (90 posts)  10/28/2012 11:09 AM

Expect an extension for Harden in the range of 5/80M in the next day or two, before that Wednesday midnight deadline. There's an understanding in place between Pelinka/Harden and Morey that it will happen. Could be 4/60M, but I doubt Morey would be opposed to maxing him out fully and giving him that fifth year.

tonika_zr (991 posts)  10/28/2012 11:43 AM

"anyone can offer Harden what they want, but as long as Houston matches it, he stays in Houston", well if he is RFA then I cant be right, Houston would match any #s thats for sure.

mgustafson (24 posts)  10/28/2012 12:08 PM

Do you guys see any big effect on Durant? D will be able to focus on him a little more throughout the game (particularly at the end) but I suppose he's already used to that. 

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/28/2012 12:30 PM

Buser - only comment on your updated projections for Harden is the number of times he makes it to the FT line.  Last year, he had 6 FT attempts and 10 FG attempts, so he went to the line every 0.6 times he took a FG.  You currently have his projection at 7 FT attempts and 14 FG attempts, so he's going to the line every 0.5 times he takes a FG.  Was there a thought process behind this drop?

If it's increased to 0.6 FTA per FGA, then he gets to the line 8.4 times which helps his value since he is an excellent FT shooter.  Not sure he gets there 8.4 times, maybe there is a decrease in the rate people foul him, but I could still see between 7.5-8.0 FTA/game.

mbuser (4328 posts)  10/28/2012 12:48 PM

I anticipate more of his FGA being spot-up and jumpshots than we saw last season.

rico381 (279 posts)  10/28/2012 3:46 PM

@ 22686 That doesn't mean I'm projecting 30+ ppg for Harden on .690 TS% like he was putting up before.  If he did, we'd have a new best player in the world. 

Playing against bench players helped a little bit, although that factor is probably overblown.  A lot of the time, the bench player is better than the starter defensively (think Ronnie Brewer vs. Rip Hamilton, Francisco Garcia vs. Marcus Thornton, Branon Rush vs. Klay Thompson for a few examples), and while I'm sure the reverse is true just as often, the disparity isn't nearly as clearcut as people make it out to be.  After all, if any other team could take their starting SG and put him off the bench and suddenly he'd give them 30 points per 36 on near- .700 TS%, they would.  Nobody else comes close, though. 

I also think Harden is going to miss Nick Collison way more than people expect.  Collison is one of the league's elite offensive players by plus-minus every year, and he's great at getting his teammates easy buckets.  Having him as the screener on pick and rolls helps more than you would think.

Those two caveats added, Harden could drop off a long way from those numbers and still be an absolutely amazing player.  Just take his averages from last year, dragged down by a ton of minutes with Westbrook and Durant just ignoring him on the floor, and multiply them out for 36 minutes per game and he's already in the top 10.  His usage is going to go up significantly, which means a drop in FG% and an increase in turnovers, sure, but it also means more points, a higher FT% value, and more threes, with more assists.  His steals were also anomalously low last year, so when you add it all up, I've got Harden projected as a top-5 player this year.

dasein (615 posts)  10/28/2012 7:11 PM

@ toni_k (via rotoworld)

By using their one-time allowance, the Rockets could extend Harden for five years at the maximum salary, or roughly $78 million. Daryl Morey's single-minded pursuit of an All-Star finally paid off with a 23-year-old rising star, whose offensive potential is through the roof. The Rockets should also have enough cap space to remain a serious player in free agency next summer, despite the contracts of Harden, Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik.

Cap. (519 posts)  10/29/2012 12:37 AM

Small sidenote, does Kendrick Perkins' value go up at all considering his only real backup was included in the deal?  I know he's a bit of a chump, but someone has to play center for the Thunder don't they?  Maybe we see a bit more of Thabeet's potential?  Or do they play Nick Collison a bit more?  I think besides Ibaka, one of Perkins, Thabeet, and Collison will have to end up having value this year by default.  Also, does Aldrich hurt Asik's upward trend at all, I think Aldrich was a nice addition for Houston and he's being somewhat ignored in the discussion, he had a pretty good preseason when Perkins was out, could eat into Asik's minutes a bit, not to mention Motiejunas.

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/29/2012 12:56 AM

Yeah, I've been wondering about that to. Asik was the only real big in Houston, that was part of his value.  Now they have Aldrich, even if he steals a couple minutes away from Asik that's got to hurt.

tonika_zr (991 posts)  10/29/2012 1:16 AM

Yes Das, after buin post realized he is staying in Houston. Tought that he have a choice not to sign and then he will be UFA in 2013 but that is not the case.

# 22686 (64 posts)  10/29/2012 3:38 AM

Doubt Aldrich will play much, he was really only part of the deal to make the numbers work out

Barely averaged 7 mins per game last year. They paid a ton of money for Asik, I doubt they will take major minutes away from him. It'll stunt his development.

DaCommish (62 posts)  10/29/2012 1:47 PM

Something to keep in mind regarding Harden's numbers with/without Durant and Westbrook- he was the leader of the second unit and faced inferior competition a majority of the time. When he was with Durant/Westbrook that was in the forth quarter with them trying to balance the ball.

Not saying that he is not talented, obviously a guy with his skillset would dominate vs secondary units.

Cap. (519 posts)  10/29/2012 2:06 PM

I don't know 22686, I think Aldrich will be a good player in this league, and that he was more than just a throw-in for the Rockets.  He was the 11th overall pick in 2010 so I think they should consider him part of their core now.  Asik and Aldrich is a good, young combo, and if their smart they'll give Aldrich some minutes to develop this year.