JDommu (4 posts)  10/31/2012 11:17 AM

I adjusted Rondo's preseason projects in my pre-season custom projections to give him a couple more FGA per 36 (I figure he will be more assertive this season especially with Allen gone), and improved his FT%.  Rondo had shot nearly 70% during last season's playoffs and 78% in the preseason, so I bumped him to 67.5% in my projections from BBM's projection of 62%.  Based on those 2 changes, he jumped into the Top 10 of available players in my 8 cat H2H league (keeper league with Harden, Cousins, Lawson, Dragic, and several other top 30 players unavailable).  So, I ended up drafting him at 14th overall. 

Anyway, I just noticed that BBM recently made similar changes to his remaining season projections, and he got a similar bump in rankings.  The 5% increase in FT% really makes a huge difference.  I think it's reasonable to project the increased ft% despite the 2 of 4 line last night.

Also, I resumed one of my favorite activities last night of watching NBA and tracking the live boxscore.  There was an assist that Rondo had to KG with about 8 minutes left in the game that got mistakenly credited to Barbosa.  Barbosa wasn't in the game at that time, and it was clearly Rondo's pass.  So, I am expecting Rondo's assists to jump up to 14 from 13 once stat corrections come out.   Also, there was a first quarter steal where Rondo deflected the ball (I think from Wade) and Pierce ending up picking up the ball and getting credit for the steal.  I thought in those situations that the deflector gets credit for the steal.  Steals can sometimes be tricky but that was another possibility where Rondo should have gotten credit and its possible that is corrected. 

Questions (and these are more site related than Rondo related)

1. Is there a place to review all the projection changes that BBM makes?  Last year, Ken always made a comment when he adjusted a projection, but it would be useful to see the old projection and the new projection when a change is made.

2. Are stat corrections made within BBM once Stats Inc makes them?  Will there be a place to review them?

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/31/2012 12:50 PM

Rondo's FT% was not recently adjusted. Any substantial changes to notable players are posted somewhere on the board, either in a stand-alone post or in the post where news necessitates the changes.

Ken will have to speak to stats corrections, but I do know that we don't go through Stats Inc, but rather XML Team.

JDommu (4 posts)  10/31/2012 3:39 PM

Interesting.  Thanks Matt.  When I go to projections, uncheck "use custom projections", and select "remaining projections" as the source, it must still be using my custom projections.  The BBM projections (not my own) are used when I uncheck custom projections but select preseason projections as the source.  This is what caused me to assume that BBM also changed their projection on Rondo's FT%.

mbuser (4316 posts)  1/27/2013 1:12 PM

Unsubstantiated rumor going around now that Rondo may have a torn ACL.

Mark Murphy ‏@Murf56
Celtics source says Rondo may have torn ACL - getting MRI for it now at New England Baptist.

Sean Deveney ‏@SeanDeveney
I'm no doctor, but an MRI on someone w a hyperextended knee to check for a torn ACL doesn't mean he has a torn ACL. That's why they do MRIs.

Celtics Town ‏@CelticsTown
Regarding Rondo rumor: If Celtics fear a torn ACL, weird he was such a late scratch today.

nolagoblue (85 posts)  1/27/2013 1:29 PM

Pretty bad mis diagnosis to go from a hyperextended knee to a torn ACL. I'm praying its just hyper extended. Man, just when my FT% punt h2h team was coming around, this hits me. 

mbuser (4316 posts)  1/27/2013 1:30 PM

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA
Two Celtics sources tell Y! that team's awaiting Rondo's MRI results on injured knee. He's currently at New England Baptist Hospital.

saucetek (10 posts)  1/27/2013 1:42 PM

Torn ACL, out for the season

cheesymoney (10 posts)  1/27/2013 1:44 PM

What do we think about Avery Bradley and Courtney Lee's values going forward with the official news of Rondo's torn ACL?  Bradley is gone in my league as of a few weeks ago, but what about Lee?

mbuser (4316 posts)  1/27/2013 1:59 PM

Celtics could blow the whole thing up now, so any potential value is also potentially temporary. But as it stands, Bradley, Terry, and Lee should all have standard-league relevance with an extra 37 mpg now available.

Cap. (518 posts)  1/27/2013 2:20 PM

Man, that's a tough break.  I actually don't think the Celtics need to blow it up, yes there in danger of missing the playoffs now, but they're currently in 8th, and still have Pierce, Garnett, Terry, Green, Barbosa, Sullinger, Bass, etc, not exactly a bunch of slouches there.  If I was Doc Rivers, I would start Terry or Barbosa at PG.  They did take the Heat down to the wire today without Rondo, after all.

mbuser (4316 posts)  1/27/2013 2:35 PM

Certainly not a collection of slouches, but they are barely in the playoff picture at full strength and now the key to the whole thing is gone. Ainge will most certainly consider some moves now, anyway, but it will be interesting to see if the players want to make a run at it. Pierce is only partially guaranteed next season, he would be the first to go on the block.

salaries

-----

Celtics projections are updated.

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  1/27/2013 2:37 PM

Boston is such an old team. I am not sure blowing it up is the right term. I do think they will retool this year. I don't think u can blow up an 8 place team. If Boston misses the playoffs there is a great chance that Stern gives them the number 1 pick this year. They were in 8th with Rondo BTW. I think shopping the old guys fire sale starts soon. I am cursed in my 10 keeper Roto league. I trade for Dirk he gets hurt. Love gets hurt twice. I trade for Rondo he gets hurt.

Sribb43 (66 posts)  1/27/2013 2:45 PM

Shoulud I drop Eric Bledsoe for Bradley? 

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  1/27/2013 2:47 PM

Bradley is gone in all 7 of my leagues. if he is still available I suggest u drop someone for him. Even with CP3 out Bledsoe has the exact same numbers as a backup and as a starter.

mafix (100 posts)  1/27/2013 3:18 PM

Would you drop a player like Dudley for Avery or terry?

ittyler (2 posts)  1/27/2013 4:06 PM

Just completed a 2 for 1 for Bynum and I have an extra roster spot. Matt Barnes and Avery Bradley are available who should I pick up?

12 Teams 13 Per Team $200 Per Team [10 Active = pts 3 stl fg% ft% dr or fg ft 3%, 3 Punted = ast blk to]

Own	Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	min/g	pts/g	3/g	ast/g	stl/g	blk/g	fg%	fga/g	ft%	fta/g	dr/g	or/g	fg/g	ft/g	to/g	3%	3a/g	ptsV	3V	astV	stlV	blkV	fg%V	ft%V	drV	orV	fgV	ftV	toV	3%V
	1	4	1.12	0.83	+0.29	-1.62	Curry, Stephen		GSW	PG/SG	35		38.0	20.4	3.2	6.7	1.6	0.2	0.443	16.2	0.895	3.2	3.3	0.6	7.2	2.9	2.9	0.467	6.9	1.40	2.60	1.64	1.39	-0.74	-0.71	1.06	-0.53	-0.85	1.14	0.17	-1.35	5.57
	1	5	1.00	0.65	+0.34	-1.55	Harden, James		HOU	SG/SF	35		38.0	26.0	1.9	5.4	1.8	0.5	0.440	17.7	0.850	10.1	3.6	0.8	7.8	8.6	3.5	0.340	5.5	2.68	1.04	1.05	1.95	-0.29	-0.88	2.01	-0.37	-0.66	1.54	4.26	-2.25	-1.59
	1	9	0.72	0.45	+0.27	0.54	Cousins, DeMarcus		SAC	PF/C	36		34.0	19.1	0.0	3.2	1.5	0.7	0.445	15.3	0.765	7.1	7.6	3.8	6.8	5.4	2.8	0.000	0.0	1.08	-1.08	0.05	1.14	-0.08	-0.62	-0.31	1.95	2.13	0.93	1.98	-1.33	0.01
	2	18	0.43	0.29	+0.15	0.54	Pekovic, Nikola		MIN	C	39		32.0	16.7	0.0	0.8	0.6	0.8	0.523	13.0	0.787	4.0	5.2	4.2	6.8	3.2	1.7	0.000	0.0	0.54	-1.08	-1.05	-0.99	0.21	1.39	0.08	0.54	2.56	0.90	0.36	0.23	0.01
	3	33	0.29	0.14	+0.15	-1.20	Gordon, Eric		NOR	SG	34		33.6	21.1	1.7	3.9	1.2	0.4	0.448	15.9	0.815	6.3	1.9	0.6	7.1	5.2	2.5	0.355	4.9	1.55	0.90	0.37	0.43	-0.54	-0.54	0.63	-1.36	-0.85	1.11	1.81	-0.88	-0.79
	3	35	0.26	0.21	+0.05		Bynum, Andrew		PHI	C	28		27.4	17.1	0.0	1.4	0.4	1.7	0.545	12.2	0.697	5.4	6.4	2.9	6.7	3.7	2.3	0.000	0.0	0.62	-1.08	-0.80	-1.58	1.53	1.82	-1.28	1.22	1.27	0.82	0.78	-0.59	0.01
	4	38	0.23	0.17	+0.07	-1.71	Anderson, Ryan		NOR	PF/C	36		30.0	15.9	2.9	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.435	13.8	0.875	1.2	4.1	2.2	6.0	1.1	0.8	0.395	7.3	0.35	2.19	-0.92	-0.88	-0.73	-0.82	0.33	-0.07	0.67	0.38	-1.14	1.50	1.33
	7	78	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-1.49	Lawson, Ty		DEN	PG	36		34.0	16.0	1.0	7.0	1.3	0.1	0.466	13.2	0.790	3.4	2.2	0.8	6.1	2.7	2.4	0.356	2.8	0.36	0.04	1.79	0.69	-0.98	-0.01	0.09	-1.18	-0.69	0.48	0.03	-0.66	-0.42
	8	85	-0.11	-0.02	-0.10	1.21	Splitter, Tiago		SAS	C	33		27.0	10.9	0.0	1.7	0.9	1.0	0.554	7.1	0.767	3.9	4.8	1.8	3.9	3.0	1.1	0.000	0.0	-0.81	-1.08	-0.64	-0.23	0.48	1.19	-0.15	0.29	0.33	-0.94	0.25	1.09	0.01
	9	99	-0.21	-0.23	+0.02	1.10	Landry, Carl		GSW	SF/PF	37		23.6	11.1	0.0	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.519	7.3	0.821	4.3	3.7	2.4	3.8	3.5	1.6	0.000	0.0	-0.76	-1.08	-1.10	-1.61	-0.24	0.74	0.50	-0.30	0.82	-1.02	0.60	0.45	0.01
	10	109	-0.25	-0.22	-0.03	0.73	Blatche, Andray		BKN	PF/C	34		20.0	10.3	0.0	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.507	8.1	0.742	2.8	3.3	2.3	4.1	2.0	1.5	0.000	0.0	-0.95	-1.08	-0.95	0.18	-0.03	0.63	-0.30	-0.51	0.77	-0.83	-0.44	0.60	0.01
	10	114	-0.31	-0.30	-0.01	0.47	Asik, Omer		HOU	C	35		29.0	9.6	0.0	1.0	0.6	1.1	0.545	6.9	0.538	3.9	7.7	3.0	3.8	2.1	2.2	0.000	0.0	-1.10	-1.08	-0.99	-1.11	0.61	1.03	-2.73	1.96	1.38	-1.06	-0.40	-0.40	0.01
	11	129	-0.38	-0.22	-0.15	0.49	Johnson, Amir		TOR	PF/C	36		21.7	8.3	0.0	1.3	0.9	0.9	0.570	5.8	0.742	2.2	3.3	2.2	3.3	1.6	0.9	0.000	0.0	-1.41	-1.08	-0.82	-0.31	0.34	1.15	-0.25	-0.53	0.68	-1.33	-0.73	1.36	0.01
Own	Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	min/g	pts/g	3/g	ast/g	stl/g	blk/g	fg%	fga/g	ft%	fta/g	dr/g	or/g	fg/g	ft/g	to/g	3%	3a/g	ptsV	3V	astV	stlV	blkV	fg%V	ft%V	drV	orV	fgV	ftV	toV	3%V
			2.74	1.70	+1.04	-0.19	Avg Stats/Total Values				454		29.9	15.6	0.8	2.7	1.0	0.7	0.481	11.7	0.780	4.4	4.4	2.1	5.6	3.5	2.0	0.391	2.1	3.49	-1.77	-2.34	-0.80	-0.82	4.13	-0.03	0.96	7.73	2.07	7.42	-2.11	4.20
			1.04	0.56	+0.49	-0.15	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				352		29.1	14.3	0.9	2.8	1.0	0.6	0.476	11.0	0.770	3.8	4.2	2.0	5.2	3.0	1.9	0.404	2.2	-0.28	-0.73	-1.57	-0.38	-1.97	1.98	-1.10	-0.25	4.48	-1.13	2.10	0.36	5.74

rico381 (279 posts)  1/27/2013 4:18 PM

Matt Barnes should've been owned a loooong time ago.  Pick him up over Bradley for sure.   Bradley's line just isn't super fantasy-friendly.

odin426 (393 posts)  1/27/2013 4:23 PM

Was able to pick up lee, would you drop zeller and pick up Barbosa as well? 

odin426 (393 posts)  1/27/2013 4:29 PM

And how would you rank the four going forward? Lee, barbosa, terry, and Avery?

dasein (607 posts)  1/27/2013 5:08 PM

I'm not rushing out to grab any of the Bos guards- would add Devin Harris before any of them. PP is going to play a bunch of point forward now, and the backcourt will still be a bit of a platoon with Doc going with the hot hand most nights. If you have someone to drop my preference would probably be (based on expected minutes consistency)

Bradely, Lee, Terry, Barbosa

Petrocelli (301 posts)  1/27/2013 8:01 PM

I addeed him to this team.  I am extremely weak at point guard in this league.  I dropped Sefolosha and added Bradley.  I think the starting point guard on a good team is always worth a flier.

11 Teams 14 Per Team $200 Per Team [8 Active = pts 3 reb stl blk fg% ft% to, 1 Punted = ast]

Own	Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	min/g	pts/g	3/g	reb/g	ast/g	stl/g	blk/g	fg%	fga/g	ft%	fta/g	to/g	ptsV	3V	rebV	astV	stlV	blkV	fg%V	ft%V	toV
	2	12	0.38	0.22	+0.16	-0.24	Lopez, Brook		BKN	C	36		30.0	19.0	0.0	7.6	0.9	0.7	2.0	0.509	14.9	0.775	4.9	1.8	1.05	-1.11	0.72	-1.07	-1.01	2.15	1.24	-0.11	0.11
	2	14	0.36	0.41	-0.05	-1.45	Batum, Nicolas		POR	SG/SF	36		39.0	16.5	2.4	5.9	5.0	1.4	1.1	0.433	12.6	0.865	3.8	2.6	0.49	1.66	0.09	0.80	0.86	0.62	-0.77	0.92	-0.98
	2	22	0.28	0.25	+0.03	-0.45	Horford, Al		ATL	PF/C	36		37.0	16.3	0.0	9.9	3.3	0.9	1.1	0.540	13.6	0.645	2.5	1.8	0.43	-1.11	1.60	0.02	-0.37	0.70	1.93	-1.00	0.08
	3	25	0.25	0.24	+0.01	-2.28	George, Paul		IND	SG/SF	37		36.5	17.9	2.2	7.7	3.5	1.7	0.5	0.428	15.7	0.805	2.8	2.8	0.79	1.39	0.76	0.14	1.58	-0.30	-1.11	0.19	-1.31
	3	27	0.23	0.07	+0.17	-0.05	Davis, Anthony		NOR	PF/C	37		29.0	12.7	0.0	7.7	0.5	1.0	1.9	0.492	10.2	0.777	3.4	1.5	-0.38	-1.11	0.78	-1.27	-0.27	1.85	0.52	-0.06	0.53
	3	28	0.22	0.11	+0.10	0.61	Barnes, Matt		LAC	SF	32		25.7	11.6	1.7	5.1	1.7	1.1	1.0	0.497	8.8	0.750	1.5	1.2	-0.64	0.79	-0.21	-0.70	-0.02	0.43	0.53	-0.15	0.99
	4	35	0.18	0.13	+0.05	-1.00	Matthews, Wesley		POR	SG/SF	37		36.0	16.4	2.6	3.0	2.6	1.4	0.3	0.437	12.7	0.819	3.3	1.7	0.46	1.92	-1.00	-0.29	0.74	-0.63	-0.69	0.36	0.30
	5	46	0.12	0.04	+0.08	-1.45	Ilyasova, Ersan		MIL	PF	38		28.0	13.0	1.1	7.7	1.9	0.9	0.6	0.452	10.8	0.789	2.7	1.1	-0.31	0.17	0.76	-0.63	-0.54	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	1.22
	7	67	0.00	-0.08	+0.09	1.93	Sefolosha, Thabo		OKC	SG/SF	36		28.0	7.0	1.2	3.7	1.6	1.3	0.6	0.454	5.7	0.875	0.7	0.7	-1.67	0.25	-0.73	-0.77	0.60	-0.21	-0.12	0.20	1.71
	7	74	-0.04	-0.13	+0.09	0.02	Johnson, Amir		TOR	PF/C	36		21.7	8.3	0.0	5.5	1.3	0.9	0.9	0.570	5.8	0.742	2.2	0.9	-1.37	-1.11	-0.05	-0.88	-0.43	0.37	1.16	-0.27	1.38
	8	79	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.32	Kidd, Jason		NYK	PG/SG	36		26.0	7.3	1.8	3.8	3.5	1.4	0.3	0.410	5.9	0.885	0.8	1.2	-1.60	0.94	-0.69	0.14	0.81	-0.59	-0.61	0.25	1.07
	10	103	-0.13	-0.23	+0.09	1.39	Davis, Ed		TOR	PF/C	37		23.3	9.3	0.0	6.7	1.1	0.6	0.8	0.542	7.2	0.679	2.2	1.0	-1.14	-1.11	0.39	-0.98	-1.06	0.13	1.06	-0.67	1.33
	13	142	-0.26	-0.27	+0.01	1.56	Bledsoe, Eric		LAC	PG/SG	35		18.0	8.2	0.3	2.7	2.5	1.5	0.6	0.467	7.1	0.792	1.6	1.7	-1.41	-0.78	-1.14	-0.33	0.91	-0.07	0.03	0.04	0.30
	17	177	-0.36	-0.33	-0.04	0.05	Harris, Devin		ATL	PG/SG	34		28.0	9.8	1.4	2.1	3.2	1.2	0.3	0.423	7.9	0.727	2.2	1.6	-1.04	0.52	-1.34	-0.02	0.22	-0.67	-0.62	-0.37	0.39
Own	Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	min/g	pts/g	3/g	reb/g	ast/g	stl/g	blk/g	fg%	fga/g	ft%	fta/g	to/g	ptsV	3V	rebV	astV	stlV	blkV	fg%V	ft%V	toV
			1.20	0.42	+0.78	-0.14	Avg Stats/Total Values				503		29.1	12.4	1.0	5.7	2.3	1.1	0.9	0.474	10.0	0.777	2.5	1.6	-6.20	1.26	0.14	-5.85	1.99	3.68	2.23	-0.57	7.06
			1.93	1.30	+0.63	-0.68	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				361		30.9	13.9	1.2	6.4	2.4	1.1	1.0	0.474	11.1	0.785	2.8	1.7	-0.98	2.41	2.82	-3.71	1.37	4.44	1.81	0.22	3.31

mtofell (18 posts)  1/27/2013 10:51 PM

Looking into my magical 8-ball and what do I see?  Jose Calderon in a Boston jersey?

If Lowry could stay healthy for a week maybe it would happen!!!!!!!

Cap. (518 posts)  1/28/2013 2:55 PM

Good idea for the Celtics, but let's see, who makes Toronto a better team, Jose Calderon or Jeff Green?  Answer:  Calderon.

dasein (607 posts)  1/28/2013 8:13 PM

Wouldn't be shocked to see something like this:

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

Trading for Gay seems like a classic Toronto move to me, and I think the Grizz would swap him for Pierce in a heart-beat. Danny might do it if Toronto had it's 1st round pick to throw his way, but with OKC owning it, don't see how it would work. 

rico381 (279 posts)  1/28/2013 11:45 PM

dasein, you've got to click the link to save and share your trade.

dasein (607 posts)  1/29/2013 12:30 AM

whoops. 

Well, for what it's worth it was Pierce going to MEM, Gay to TOR and Calderon+Grey to BOS. 

Chubs33 (5 posts)  1/29/2013 1:07 PM

I really don't think Pierce will be dealt. Garnett is much more likely, but I don't want to see that either. Pierce is a Celtic through and through, no way in hell he gets traded for Jose Calderon and Grey.

mbuser (4316 posts)  1/29/2013 1:19 PM

It wouldn't seem right to see Pierce in another uniform, that's for sure. But the details that matter here are that Pierce's contract is only partially guaranteed next season ($4M) while KG is owed $24M over the next two seasons. Oh yeah, and KG has a full no-trade clause.

dasein (607 posts)  1/29/2013 4:15 PM

I want to see PP retire a Celtic as much as anyone. Ainge on the otherhand isn't one for sentimentality. Matt is right about KG's contract making him virtually unmovable. That leaves PP, Bradely and Sullinger as pretty much his only trade chips. Nobody sober is going near that Jeff Green contract, and the Bass/Terry/Lee poopoo plater isn't getting anything done either. 

I was simply saying a trade like that wouldn't shock me. And the prize would have been the high lottery pick- Calderon is just a rental for the year and Grey is just cap filler. Would that lead to Celtics fans marching on Ainge's office with torches and pitchforks? Probably. Will that stop him from doing it though?

If Pierce wants to go to a contender like memphis, I'd think he's earned that right. Can't see either him or KG wanting to play for a lottery team at this stage. The most likely outcome is the current roster grit'n'grinds it's way into the playoffs and gets bowled in the 1st round. But you can't say that a shakeup is out of the question either. If there is one thing we've learnt about Ainge it's that he's not shy about pulling the trigger. 

vnmslsrbms (65 posts)  1/30/2013 12:26 PM

It would work for Boston only for the short term though.  They still have Rondo coming back next year, and Calderon should really be starting for a bottom half NBA team.  So he'll cost too much to resign as a backup PG.  Then they would lose Pierce (who is admittedly long in tooth) for nothing, and an aging Garnett stuck there with his contract.  Still without a legit big man.  I would think they would participate in the trade but would be at least looking for a promising big man prospect in return for Pierce.  Sullinger seems better suited for a bench role due to his height and trouble (without fouling) defending NBA starting PFs.