bruin99 (201 posts)  9/20/2012 10:23 PM

Seems to me it takes players until their 3rd year to really shine in most cases.  Examples:

Last year we had Harden, Jennings, Lawson & Thornton.

2 years ago, Love, Rose & Westbrook.

Each of the players above went from between 7th-10th round in the prior year to 1st-3rd round value in the year mentioned.

Who are the 3rd year breakout candidates this year?  Just name dropping - Wall, Hawyard, Vasquez, Fields, Turner.  Note I'm excluding George, Monroe and Cousins as they've already 'broken out'.

It would seem to me to be Wall and Turner as they have the most set roles, however Wall already being overdrafted.

Cap. (530 posts)  9/20/2012 10:36 PM

I think Fields has a good chance to earn a bump next year, as do Vasquez and Hayward, but the real gems here are Paul George and John Wall.  On a side note, I don't think Derrick Favors will ever live up to the hype.

bruin99 (201 posts)  9/20/2012 10:49 PM

Haven't kept up much on Fields, how secure is his role in Toronto?  I know he's penciled in as the starting SF, but are we talking a 36-40 minute/game starter, 25 minute/game starter?

Cap. (530 posts)  9/20/2012 10:57 PM

I'd say it'll be a 70-30 split with Kleiza, but Fields is more of a Casey guy, and he clearly has the GM's blessing, so he should play a pretty key role this year.

power101 (327 posts)  9/21/2012 8:05 AM

raps are also going to want to justify that contract fields got. He will be getting minutes unless he starts to stink, which I dont forsee happening (that being said, I wouldnt take anything but a late round flier on him. Raps also want to justify their two rookies, plus derozen is in contract year, and lowry is going to get his. Fields real life value won't equal fantasy value.

power101 (327 posts)  9/21/2012 8:07 AM

evan turner was a BEAST for about 5 games straight last year. If the guy can tap into some of that consistently this year, he will break out.

I wouldnt want to reach for turner in a major way, but he is definetely on my radar when I do my draft.

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  9/21/2012 8:15 AM

I think Landry Fields will be the next TurkeyGlue bad contract for Toronto. He will prolly start off as a starter do little and start getting booed. What made Landry special as a rookie was the rebounds. Landry is not a breakout candidate. He was a rookie that made a minor impact then slid into the abyss. Toronto has a very deep team and I expect either Kleiza or Terrence Ross to be the starting SF by December. Shifting Derozan back to SG and Landry as his backup. Toronto has to overpay to get free agents.

power101 (327 posts)  9/21/2012 8:21 AM

Turk was a bit of a different story. He was "supposedly" the biggest free agent pick up that the raps had ever! Just coming off the finals, he was suppose to be the guy who took over games in the 4th quarter. (this was how the raps organization sold it). he had a big intro press conference here. So this guy was hyped in a major way by the Raptors.

And we booed him because he was a lazy dooche. Missed a game cause he was sick, yet went out clubbing in Toronto the same night. Had the vince carter thing going where he would smile and laugh with the opposite team that just beat him by 20. Gave Jack Armstrong the "ball" answer.

Fields has a big contract, and yes, raps fans want to see something for it. But Turkoglu was in a whole different world when it comes to why we booed the hell out of him. If Fields stinks, but is not a douche, rap fans won't boo him. They will boo Colangelo for giving him the contract.

Cap. (530 posts)  9/21/2012 9:26 AM

Finally, another Raps fan in here, I don't feel so outnumbered anymore!  And yeah, the Turkeyball comparison isn't even close.  Colangelo did what he had to, it's no secret that the Fields signing was a semi-bluff at the Knicks in an attempt to lure Nash.  We all know that Fields is a bit overpaid, but it's only a 3 year contract, and the Raptors have money to burn, so it's not even questionable at all.  He's a good, young player, who will probably sign a long term deal with the Raps after he becomes a core player.  If you look at his rookie-sophmore years, it's obvious the Knicks needed him to be more of a 'selfish' player in year 1.  Once they finished upgrading the team in year 2 he took on a more much secondary role.  As a result of this, his scoring, three point attempts, rebounds, and minutes went down a bit, and his assists, steals, and blocks went up a bit.  His role on the Raps is going to be a secondary one on offense, and a lockdown defender on defense, so it's possible he settles right in between his year 1 and 2 stats, so I expect somewhere around 13 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 1.0 threes, not necessarrily a breakout candidate, but definitely a good glue guy.

thebarnes (37 posts)  9/22/2012 10:16 PM

I agree with hailfire. I think everyone else is underestimating the amount of swing men in Toronto who are all better than field. Derozen and Ross will likely be starters when all is said and done and Klieza uninsured is as good if not better than fields. 

HYEPWRD (13 posts)  9/23/2012 9:58 PM

if we remove all bias--Ross is the best player. Best defense...best shooting player on a team that wants to outshoot teams.He is better than Derozan in every way except getting to the rim. A healthy Klieza is probably the 2nd best(as he showed at the olympics)....followed by derozan and Fields. Unfortuneately, there are too much politics and bias in the NBA. The Raps have too much invested in Derozan + he was invited to Select team--so he will start--no question. Ross was clearly the coaches draft choice--Coaches control mins--so, He will be in the rotation for sure with consistant mins. That leaves Fields and Klieza fighting for 28-30mins. One will play and one wont I would suspect. Either the guy they signed to bigg $$ wont be playing much....or the better player wont be playing much. We will learn alot about the culture of the Raps by this decision.

Phil O'Pastry (11 posts)  9/24/2012 3:20 PM

I think, if given the minutes (which sadly may be tough) Ed Davis would be the player to explode this season.  He had his first summer league, will experience his first pre-season and will be healthy (fingers crossed) at the start of the season, which something new for him.

mbuser (4335 posts)  9/24/2012 4:01 PM

If by tough you mean impossible, then I agree with you

Phil O'Pastry (11 posts)  9/24/2012 4:54 PM

I am kind of curious to see if anyone thinks Aminu may break out with no competition for the SF spot in New Orleans. 

power101 (327 posts)  9/26/2012 11:48 AM

If derozen doesnt step up this year, you can bank on his minutes dropping. He is in a contract year, so if he doesnt perform, the raps will have no issue running with Ross/Fields instead, as both guys are locked in for a number of years.

power101 (327 posts)  9/26/2012 11:50 AM

And ed davis should get some minutes this year IF JV gets into foul trouble frequently or bargs misses time with injury.If JV gets around 28-30 MPG and Bargs hits 75 + games, then davis is going to be at around 20 mpgs at the end of theyar.

dcdoorknob (206 posts)  9/26/2012 3:50 PM

Heh, this general "3rd year players" topick kinda turned into an analysis of Toronto's roster, didn't it?  :)