Emminency (5 posts)  11/9/2012 12:27 AM

Is Valanciunas worth holding onto? I understand he has upside, can score and rebound and block, and has good FT%. But he's inconsistency and foul trouble is already becoming annoying. I am in a 12 team, 13 player league, with very little trade-happy managers. So can someone please help me see through my own bias and tell me if I should just drop him if a hot FA becomes available?

Cheers!

mbuser (4326 posts)  11/9/2012 9:55 AM

He's a fringe player with upside, which is not a completely unique quality. Leashes should be given in varying degrees, and good numbers down the line would not necessarily be a surprise, but you won't be faulted for an add/drop if you are looking at an available player with solid long-term prospects of his own. Cap will probably try to talk you out of it, though..

Cap. (518 posts)  11/9/2012 3:13 PM

Yes, drop Valanciunas immediately, so I can pick him up!  In all honesty, like any other add/drop question, it all depends who you're dropping him for.  In a 12 team 13 player league the WW is probably not that exciting, so it's worth holding on to him for a few more games to see if he flashes his potential.  The last thing you want to do with a lottery-type player like Val is drop him one game before he breaks out and have another team pick him up and reap the rewards.  He's not going to hurt you on your bench right now, and he will certainly improve.  He's actually been pretty productive when he's been on the floor as his per-36s of 14.4 PTS, 9.0 REB (5.4 OREB), 1.8 AST, 1.4 BLK, and 1.000% FT, would suggest.

rushour (13 posts)  11/9/2012 3:18 PM

would you drop valanciunas for seraphin?

dcdoorknob (206 posts)  11/9/2012 3:44 PM

Yes, pick up Seeraphin.  He has upside too but he's actually producting right now.

odin426 (393 posts)  11/12/2012 12:51 AM

With news that the Raptors were going for a line up change and it could have been Amir Johnson replacing Jonas, I went out and got him to protect my 4th big position as I also have Jonas V. I like Jonas for the long term this season and see him producing, hopefully sooner rather then later but do you guys see Amir getting significant minutes and supplanting Jonas anytime soon? If not Id like to drop him for a big that could maybe produce now (Thinking Tyler Zeller---deep league and I think hell carve 24 mins when hes healthy) Love to hear your advise, thanks! 

ZeroStatic (164 posts)  11/12/2012 1:19 AM

Amir Johnson's biggest issue is his fouls. He's constantly involved in the play because he's aggressive and energetic, but he racks up the fouls like no-one's business. Just take a look at his game log for this season and you can see he'll always struggle for minutes if he keeps getting in foul trouble within the 20 minutes he's currently getting.

odin426 (393 posts)  11/12/2012 3:00 AM

Hahahaha so they have the same problem to a certain extent? So what would be the impact on Jonas if Amir took over? Would that mean Jonas would be against easier opponents sometimes (second unit) and avoid foul trouble more thus staying on the court longer and better production? Or do you see his production cut as he'll be coming into the game cold or no dif at all until he can avoid foul trouble?

ZeroStatic (164 posts)  11/12/2012 4:34 AM

It never sounds good when a player gets sent to the bench, but I think theoretically JV could still maintain his minutes in a bench role behind Amir (assuming that happens). Possibility of some dud games - I'm not familiar with the rotation style at Toronto, but as you said, he might have an easier time against lesser opponents and increase his efficiency slightly.

patentboy23 (57 posts)  11/13/2012 5:30 PM

Dont know if I should drop for Pat Patterson. Last night was his chance to shine in a multiple overtime game against the Jazz but he gets into foul trouble and has inconsistent mins.

odin426 (393 posts)  11/13/2012 5:35 PM

Maybe we can see how he does tonight, all the other starters played very heavy minutes last night so he should be the only well rested one

Cap. (518 posts)  11/13/2012 6:12 PM

Don't drop Val yet, wait and see what he does when he's not in foul trouble, you will be impressed.

foxymyeung (4 posts)  11/13/2012 8:18 PM

I still don't understand the Raptor's rotation.. Val has been great, yet he's getting fewer and fewer minutes, and he hasn't been in foul trouble?!  

FREE VAL!!!

patentboy23 (57 posts)  11/13/2012 9:02 PM

9/8/2 and 2 steals isn't bad at all. I might stay put. Not saying he will have the same kind of year but illyasova started 10/9/1 in 25 mins and by ASB he was getting 30mins putting up 16/9. Just saying.

Cap. (518 posts)  11/14/2012 9:59 AM

Dwayne Casey's reasoning is actually quite simple.  He plays the players he thinks will give him the best chance at winning the game.  Valanciunas is a 20 year old rookie, and while he'll get every opportunity to start and play meaningful minutes this year, in a close game, when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter, the coach is going to feel safer with a veteran, especially the way Amir Johnson has been playing lately, and I completely agree with him.  The Raptors will have their fair share of blowouts, and when they're winning by 30 points, and Valanciunas has fouls to give, I'm sure he'll be out there getting experience.  It's still early in the season, and no coach of Casey's caliber isn't going to try and win every game.  Perhaps in March, if/when the Raptors are out of playoff contention, he'll give Val a longer leash, but in the meantime, fantasy owners are going to have to live with somewhat limited, but solid, per-minute production out of him.  Per-36 minute update:  15.3 PTS, 9.6 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.1 BLK, .482% FG, .929% FT.

BatlAngl (29 posts)  11/14/2012 10:58 AM

I'm definitely holding on to him. He's only getting 20 minutes right now, but has the potential to get more, as Cap details. And I love the fact that he doesn't hurt you anywhere. His percentages are great, and he doesn't really turn the ball over much. So, you can just plug him in your lineup without worry much. Not like a guy like BEAL, who has the potential to cost you FG%. 

Also given the fact that he was most likely one of your last picks in the draft, you're not relying on him anyways, as long as you drafted well earlier. So, just hold and wait and watch him blossom!

Cap. (518 posts)  11/14/2012 11:13 AM

Haha, last pick.  That's funny!   

BatlAngl (29 posts)  11/15/2012 3:37 PM

When did you draft him, Cap?

Cap. (518 posts)  11/15/2012 4:19 PM

Honestly, in our BOSF league I took him @ 135, and I don't think I was reaching for him too much there.

BatlAngl (29 posts)  11/15/2012 4:26 PM

Oh ok! That sounds about right. In my league we only start 10 and have a 3 player bench for a total of 13 players. So, I drafted him 144th, so you drafted him 1 round earlier, not bad.

foxymyeung (4 posts)  11/21/2012 12:22 AM

Finally... a nice breakout game.. But I still don't understand why he didn't finish out the 4th quarter and help this Raptors team try to win?!  He wasn't in any foul trouble, and they just got beat up in the 4th...  could have used his size and hops in those last few minutes...

fatcards (5 posts)  11/28/2012 12:28 AM

The stats for Valanciunas' game on 11/27 are entered incorrectly.  Please fix... thank you!

mbuser (4326 posts)  11/28/2012 1:03 PM

Which stats are incorrect?

kslight (999 posts)  11/28/2012 1:08 PM

I compared our boxscore with NBA.com, and they are the same for him.

fatcards (5 posts)  11/28/2012 8:07 PM

They were incorrect at the time of my post... but were fixed at some point.  Originally I think it had 4 boards instead of 5, and 10 points instead of 12... and fts were off.  I've p much never seen a stat be incorrect on the site before, so I thought I'd point it out incase it was overlooked.

You guys are doing a tremendous job... thanks for making this a great season!

Petrocelli (302 posts)  12/5/2012 11:23 PM

Minutes declining, as well as everything else.   Is he this month's Ersan?

mbuser (4326 posts)  12/6/2012 12:26 AM

Oy, a few bad games for a waiver add in most leagues and that's how we're couching it?

Petrocelli (302 posts)  12/6/2012 10:43 AM

I am just concerned about the drop in minutes.  I am wondering if anyone has any insight into whether this is something that may continue.

ricecuker (16 posts)  12/6/2012 11:17 AM

I have NBA LP and when I get a chance to, I watch the games my fantasy players are playing in. JV just cant hang with the athletic bangers in the post. In this case, Cousins took it to him. Casey was forced to use Ed Davis and Amir Johnson. JV will have those gems, but I cant see him playing consistently. I personally dropped him yesterday.

mbuser (4326 posts)  12/6/2012 11:37 AM

Just doing some tea leaf reading and no one has suggested this anywhere near the record, on or off, but I don’t think it would be a surprise if you saw Amir Johnson starting and Jonas Valanciunas coming off the bench. Maybe as early as Friday. Now, please, for the love all that’s good in the world, do not take this as some huge slight at Valanciunas, he is still good and going to very good and he is not personally to blame for what’s going on. And even the harshest critics would admit he’s had a lot of quite good games for a kid 19 games into his career. But he’s also learning and maybe it’s easier to learn against second unit guys now. I still think it was right to start him from the beginning to see what he had and to throw him right into the fire; some nights it worked, some nights it didn’t. But they are at a crucial juncture of the season and I think maybe it wouldn’t be that bad an idea. It might be tough for Dwane to sell to his bosses but that’s part of the job. It’s not like Valanciunas won’t still get his 25 or 28 minutes or whatever it is, they’ll just come later in the game. And it’s certainly not a done deal but I think it’s something they should consider.

http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/2012/12/change-of-some-sort-might-not-be-a-bad-idea-now.html

Cap. (518 posts)  12/6/2012 12:05 PM

Read my post above (11/14/2012 10:59 AM), because it still applies.  In close games Dwayne Casey is going to play the guys he thinks gives them the best chance of winning with, as any good coach would.  Right now, that means playing Amir Johnson, a solid veteran who's playing well, over a 20 year old rookie, in crunch time.  If you expected Valanciunas to play 35 minutes every night then you were being way too optimistic, even for me.  Valanciunas is, and will continue to be, a solid per-minute player with upside.  Stash him on your bench, spot-start him, and wait for the Raptors to trade Amir Johnson, or, drop him and let someone else take the risk/reward.  I don't think it's the matchups that is making Casey cautious, it's his inexperience, so whether they start him or bring him off the bench doesn't seem like it matters to me.  The fact is, he's been good when he's been on the court, so if you can handle the inconsistent playing time then you will like his efficiency.

Per-36 minute update:  13.3 PTS, 8.4 REB, 1.9 AST, 0.5 STL, 1.9 BLK, 2.0 TO, .508% FG, .744% FT.

richardpwnsner (53 posts)  12/17/2012 12:22 PM

I understand the desire to use players who will help you win now, but does anyone else think Casey's being a little myopic? I was writing off the low minutes in Bargnani's absence to foul trouble, but this most recent outing has me a bit boggled. 

mbuser (4326 posts)  12/17/2012 2:08 PM

You and the rest of us. Not sure how to explain it.

mbuser (4326 posts)  12/21/2012 6:45 PM

Toronto Raptors ‏@Raptors
X-rays on right hand of Jonas Valanciunas reveal a fractured metacarpal on ring finger. He's out for the remainder of tonight's game. #RTZ

Could be trouble. Assuming he'll need a few weeks to recover, it means all kinds of minutes for both Ed Davis and Amir Johnson.

mbuser (4326 posts)  12/26/2012 6:29 PM

RaptorsMR ‏@RaptorsMR
Jonas Valanciunas saw hand specialist Dr. Herb von Schroeder (Toronto Western) on Sat. Surgery will not be required; expected out 4-6 wks.

mbuser (4326 posts)  12/27/2012 12:18 AM

With both looking at all kinds of run over the next month or so, I've got Amir ahead of Ed Davis if you are looking to add one.

Cap. (518 posts)  12/27/2012 1:43 AM

Looks like Casey likes Amir off the bench so Aaron Gray might have some deep league value too.  Between Davis and Johnson, I don't know, flip a coin.

kerim34 (18 posts)  12/27/2012 3:10 AM

Thats a big MIGHT.

Cap. (518 posts)  12/27/2012 12:47 PM

hey, i didn't say 12 or 14 team value, i said DEEP value.  in 16 team leagues or more then pretty much anyone with a starting gig is eligible.  and i don't know if you remember, but aaron gray had some pretty nice games last year when bargnani was injured, so don't count him out so quickly, if casey plays him 25 minutes, he'll have value, trust me.

odin426 (393 posts)  1/13/2013 8:16 PM

Anyone know when he'll be back? Is he worth stashing already or does it seem like Amir will take over his job? He didnt seem to play heavy minutes before he went down, anyone have any projections of how much he'll play when he gets back? Thinking of dropping Derrick Williams for him eventually if I cant trade Amir away and Williams doesnt perform....

mbuser (4326 posts)  1/14/2013 12:30 AM

Valanciunas should come back to that 22ish minutes he saw before he got hurt, and there won't be a big difference there whether he's starting or coming off the bench. Not too mucn in the way of updates lately, but his original timetable called for around the end of January.

odin426 (393 posts)  1/14/2013 5:44 AM

I'm curious how they'll handle their c position since Amir and Davis have been playing really well+ I think they've been winning....

vnmslsrbms (65 posts)  1/31/2013 8:14 AM

Now that Davis is gone, he should come back to the 3 man rotation (currently Gray, Amir, and soon to be him) and play 25 or more minutes.  Even when Bargnani comes back it should be about 25 minutes still.  He seems to provide some decent stats (although low on scoring and rebounding) for a big man with 70-80% FT shooting and decent blocks.  Why are the projections at 80% FT?  Maybe needs to be tweaked down?

rico381 (279 posts)  1/31/2013 9:14 AM

Projections are probably based on the fact that he was a very good free throw shooter in Europe: (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jonas-Valanciunas-5622/stats/) , although the NBA sample is now comparable in size to that one and he probably deserves a slight downgrade there.

mbuser (4326 posts)  1/31/2013 11:23 AM

76.9% in Nov (16g), 60.0% in Dec (11g). Moved him down a bit.

vnmslsrbms (65 posts)  3/7/2013 10:09 PM

why does dwayne casey refuse to play him more minutes?  I mean Amir is playing well, and Bargnani is back into the rotation, but seriously he can't even get 25 minutes?  Who's the future here?  He should tweak Amir's minutes down slightly, and give them to Valanciunas.  It's not like Amir's bringing them to wins (not that he's not playing exceptionally well), but they are not a good team currently constructed.  And Derozon got a 40 mil extension?  Colangelo is out of his mind.  

tonika_zr (991 posts)  3/8/2013 6:45 AM

Dont forget Fields monster contract for not playing at all (injured or not almost same thing).

crucified77 (21 posts)  3/10/2013 2:28 PM

I watched Jonas play against the Lakers (causally on League Pass), he looked awesome (even against Dwight) until he was yanked (rotation?) and even when Amir fouled out the coach put in Aaron Gray.  You would think that he could play more during the end of the season with less at stake.  Maybe the Laker game is an anomoly considering the game was so tight and winnable.  He needs to play more but I wouldn't add him (and drop a producing player) unless I see some production first.  

Cap. (518 posts)  3/11/2013 12:10 PM

What I like most about Val is his toughness.  For such a young guy, he's more than happy banging in the paint with just about anyone, and throwing some elbows.  His energy level is very high, and he really puts an effort into going after rebounds.  He's pretty much the opposite of Andrea Bargnani.  His per-36 #s are more than solid for a 20 year old rookie:  11.9 PTS, 9.5 REB, 1.9 BLK, 0.4 STL, 1.3 AST, 2.2. TO, 5.0 PF, on .512% FG, and .750% FT shooting.  The Raptors are currently in 9th place, so they are still theoretically fighting for the playoffs even though it's out of reach.  That said, Val was benched in the 4th last night against the Cavs because the Cavs were going very small, I anticipate him playing major minutes from here on, especially while Bargnani's out, so he's looking like an interesting pick up right now to me.

dasein (614 posts)  3/13/2013 2:18 PM

Let me get this straight. The only thing now standing in the way of 30mpg (besides foul trouble and coach's stubborness) is Aron Grey? Or are they just going to go with Amir at C and play Gay at PF for long stretches? 

mbuser (4326 posts)  3/13/2013 2:30 PM

You are right that Valanciunas should see 30 mpg when the fouls are in check. Amir is going to be MONEY the rest of the way.