ak murthy (196 posts)  9/24/2012 4:53 AM

It's so painfully obvious, and I'm dying for someone to debate me on this. Come at me bro.

When you eliminate FT%, there is no player in the NBA that can win you weeks in the H2H format like Dwight Howard. Not LeBron, not Durant, not nobody. Howard is on his own tier.

Just look at what BBM tells you when you punt FT%. Howard's value nearly doubles on the back of a FT punt strategy alone. And if you play it smarter and demphasize 3's, Howard is easily the most dominant fantasy force in the league. It's not even close according to BBM.

His numbers will be brilliant, feel free to blow my shiz up if i'm wrong. But what are your expectations for Howard in LA? 

dasein (625 posts)  9/24/2012 5:11 AM

Have you just emerged from a cryogenic sleep unit my man? 

That is old news.  

JonBoy418 (9 posts)  9/24/2012 7:05 AM

I think it's going to be difficult to find someone to argue with....

Maybe a *small* dip in boards with Gasol being a better rebounder than any one on the Magic. But Howard is going to hurt Gasol's value more than the reverse.

I can see a little better of an offense performance, maybe an extra point or two per game with easier looks. Kobe will still command double teams and pull the defender out of the key.

bruin99 (201 posts)  9/24/2012 11:39 AM

?!?!?  D12 is dominant, but lets look at it analytically. 

Point #1 According to last years BBM rankings:

• If you ignore points, CP3 is the #1 player with a 0.80 ranking.
• If you ignore 3's, LBJ is the #1 player with a 0.95 ranking.
• If you ignore rebounds, CP3 is the #1 player with a 1.12 ranking.
• If you ignore assists, Durant is the #1 player with a 0.89 ranking.
• If you ignore steals, Durant is the #1 player with a 0.85 ranking.
• If you ignore blocks, CP3 is the #1 player with a 1.16 ranking.
• If you ignore FG%, CP3 is the #1 player with a 0.99 ranking.
• If you ignore FT%, D12 is the #1 player with a 1.01 ranking, LBJ #2 at 0.97.  Odd if you punt vs ignore, punting puts LBJ at #1 and D12 at #2.
• If you ignore TOs, Durant is the #1 player with a 1.32 ranking.

So, punting FT% gets you 0.04 more than LBJ. I'd rather take LBJ.  The most dominant players to punt and the categories to punt are Durant TOs, Rebounds CP3, Blocks CP3, then D12 FT%.

#2 - D12's dominance in blocks is over.

In 2009-2010, he led the league in shotblocking at 2.8/game, in 10-11 he was 4th at 2.4/game, last year he was 3rd at 2.1/game.  Notice how many fewer quality shotblockers there were last year - which makes Ibaka's astounding 3.7 harder to compete against if you're doing a D12 build.  You now have competition when you didn't.

#3 - D12 punt FT% complementary players are harder to come by and not as dominant as before.

Here are the players that are dominant in the D12 strategy and where they go in drafts according to BBM current year projections and ADP9 drat:

• 12 - D12
• 13 - J Smith
• 27 - Griffin
• 27 - Rondo - assists/Stl
• 29 - Cousins
• 35 - Iggy - Assists/Stls, some 3s
• 47 - A Davis
• 72 - Bogut
• 88 - McGee
• 89 - Faried
• 89 - D Jordon
• 95 - JR Smith - 3s/Stls
• 101 - Dudley - 3s
• 116 - Okafor
• 132 - Fields
• 141 - Biyombo
• 143 - Asik

The biggest problem is most of those players above are terrible in 3s/assists/stl (few guards), so you need to pick the ones who don't benefit much from FT%, which are:

• 26 - Jennings, 3s/Asst/Stl
• 31 - Conley, Asst/Stl (reach)
• 36 - Batum, 3s
• 48 - Ellis, Ast/Stl (reach)
• 65 - Lin, Asst/Stl
• 67 - Jrue, asst/stl
• 98 - Mayo, 3s
• 129 - Wright, 3s
• 139 - Delfino, 3's/stl
• 147 - Danny Green, 3s

And then the last problem, except for D12, J Smith, Griffin, Jennings, Cousins & Ellis, none of them are above average scorers, most are poor scorers.  The perfect pairing for many years with D12 was Rondo, so people didn't have a problem drafting D12 in the 1st and Rondo in the 2nd, but Rondo has really gotten worse over the years - fewer points, fewer steals, worse FG%, worse TOs, with only better assists.

#4 Last problem, once you draft D12 - you're stuck doing a punt FT% strategy.  You're not going to overcome his punt FT%.  If you pick D12, It is very unlikely you're going to get more than 1 of JSmith, Rondo, Griffin, Cousins or Jennings.  And if someone else takes Griffin (Especially if they have say LBJ), you've now got 2 teams punting FT% both vying for the same players.

Yes, a D12 build can be highly successful, but it's more based on draft day luck.  If you can get the 3some of D12, Rondo and either JSmith or Griffin, you're set.  But that will only work if your other leaguemates don't draft Rondo/Griffin.  To me, even if you have D12 with the 11th or 12th pick, neither Griffin or Rondo are worth a 13th or 14th pick if J Smith is already off the board.  And even if you get JSmith and D12 at the turn (good start), the likelyhood of you getting Griffin, Rondo, Cousins, or Jennings at 36 is like 2%.

So yes, it can be done, I've basically put together your draft template and it's really based more on luck if D12 complementary players fall to you - if they don't your screwed and/or you have to reach.  And this is coming from someone who has D12 in a keeper league.

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/24/2012 1:17 PM

Great post, bruin. Outside of that dream scenario where you nail the "perfect" targets in the first few rounds, the dominant Dwight build is not very easy to pull off. Everyone knows exactly who you will be targeting and, as mentioned, his ideal pairings are popular across the board. The first thing that would make it easier is if Rondo weren't so universally overdrafted..

# 6148 (1 posts)  9/24/2012 2:53 PM

I've been toting D12 for what will be the third year in a keeper league - and will look forward to finally releasing him next year . . . great write-up bruin99

bhaveman (11 posts)  9/24/2012 3:08 PM

I generally agree with Bruin.  That being said, a few counterpoints:

1.  When you compare punting each one of the other standard 9-cats, and determine that LBJ, Durant and CP3 come out ahead, it shows two things: the top 3 picks are the top three fantasy players ;-)  AND the reason its 'more' valuable with D12 is that you are getting #1 overall pick value out of what could be the 15-20th overall pick.  I'd rather have LBJ, Durant, or CP3 too, but there is a reason they are already off the board.

2. While D12's blocks dominance is over, punting FT% allows you to grab players who are blocks dominant very late in drafts (JaVale, Asik, Biyombo), whose values are significantly enhanced. To use BBM's 2012-13 projections, JaVale is 1st round value, but you can get him in the 6-7th; Asik is 3-4th but you can grab him in the 10th;

3.  Too many people get caught up in only targeting players that really benefit from punting FT%, but I would adopt 'drafting D12' as more of a well-rounded team strategy that ignores FT%, doing as Bruin mentions above and just make sure that the players I draft aren't aided too much by FT%.  The difference is, I think there are quite a few of them: Steph Curry, Paul George, Brandon Jennings, Goran Dragic, Mike Conley, Jeff Teague....its actually not that small of a list.  And I'm just looking at guards here.

If a low FT% player like Iggy, Griffin, Rondo, Cousins falls to you, you can take them with clear conscience, but you don't need to target them - the other players who aren't helped by their FT% are still worth as much to you.

4. So no, drafting a dominant team with the D12-punt FT% strategy is not easy, but doing it any other way isn't easy either. Its hard to win in competitive leagues!  But getting a top-4 value player potentially at 12-20, with the 'price' being that you ignore/punt FT% can just be a good value pick.

Mainly I don't think "you're screwed or have to reach" once you have Dwight.

dasein (625 posts)  9/24/2012 3:29 PM

Also, in keeper leagues and leagues with auction draft you have more freedom to build the perfect team.

And getting in premtively, I think the argument that it's also easier to block in auctions is a little off. It is if you have a mind to, but if I'm not punting FTs, I'm not going to overpay for a player I don't even want (say griffin) just to stop the guy with Dwight from winning him.

dcdoorknob (207 posts)  9/24/2012 3:52 PM

(not strictly about what the thread is going for but it is about Dwight so I'm putting it here...)

I haven't examined it closely, but how is Dwight in the top 10 in the projections even in 9 cat (with ft%)?  Has he ever come anywhere close to that?  Why is this year going to be different?  Seems off to me.

ak murthy (196 posts)  9/24/2012 5:02 PM

Great post Bruins, thats the kind of stuff I was looking for. But if you look at BBM's projections for this year (you chose last year's stats), Howard gains +.7, making his Punt value 1.40. No player even comes close to replicating that punt value except punting FTs for Griffin. When I compare that to the other values you posted, it's too large of an increase to ignore.

You've inspired me to keep playing with the projections and update your first list with BBMs 12-13 numbers.

I hear the same things every year, its fundamentally flawed, no margin for error, other owners will try to screw you. But it's worked for me. I fully understand I'm in the minority here.

rico381 (280 posts)  9/24/2012 5:20 PM

@DCDoorknob Dwight in the top 10 in 9-cat seems very optimistic.  They're projecting a .625 FG% without any drop-off in shot attempts, and a significant drop in turnovers.  Even with Nash, that's just an incredibly high projection.

So-Tex (248 posts)  9/24/2012 6:41 PM

I'm trying the D12 build for the second time now over in one of the leagues at the Cafe, and I'm really leaning at taking this approach...

3.  Too many people get caught up in only targeting players that really benefit from punting FT%, but I would adopt 'drafting D12' as more of a well-rounded team strategy that ignores FT%, doing as Bruin mentions above and just make sure that the players I draft aren't aided too much by FT%.  The difference is, I think there are quite a few of them: Steph Curry, Paul George, Brandon Jennings, Goran Dragic, Mike Conley, Jeff Teague....its actually not that small of a list.  And I'm just looking at guards here.

If a low FT% player like Iggy, Griffin, Rondo, Cousins falls to you, you can take them with clear conscience, but you don't need to target them - the other players who aren't helped by their FT% are still worth as much to you.

As well as this thinking, even though it's not an auction draft (bolded the releveant words)...

And getting in preemptively, I think the argument that it's also easier to block in auctions is a little off. It is if you have a mind to, but if I'm not punting FTs, I'm not going to overpay for a player I don't even want (say griffin) just to stop the guy with Dwight from winning him.

I've stated it once before, I think the whole approach to it this season will be to just throw rankings out the window for the first 2 or 3 picks - go for the build components first, even if they are a reach (Howard in the 1st and so on). If you manage to jump the gun on two, three or even four of those guys, then the rest of the draft can be spent cherry picking who you want to compliment that core. Granted, you give up value in the first few rounds, but in the end you can build a solid team which simply ignores FTs. And I say this not from speculation or guessing, but because I've seen it done in a few mocks now. Yes, they were mocks - but it's still something when a manager can pull it off. And I've seen it done a couple of times now.

Course, with my luck, everybody will want to screw their teams up with poor FT shooters just so I don't get my hands on the guys...and then, I'll max out on moves by the All-Star break and finish 4th again...

dasein (625 posts)  9/24/2012 6:50 PM

@ DC and rico

both the FG% and FT% are a few % points higher in the projections then they ever have been historically. If you take them down a few notches he drops back into the 3rd round, which is about right.

For what it's worth, I think his FGAs goes down in LAL, not up. 

redhopeful (89 posts)  9/24/2012 8:07 PM

Agreed dasein. Just don't get all this talk that D Howard is suddenly more appealing. A semi-passive guy now surrounded by stronger alpha's + won't be the #1 option on offense? Questionable back that will at a minimum force him to miss practice time where the team is putting in their version of the Princeton?

Oh and So-Tex, we'll be sure to screw up your Champions draft whichever route you take. 

So-Tex (248 posts)  9/24/2012 9:32 PM

   Oh and So-Tex, we'll be sure to screw up your Champions draft whichever route you take. 

Riiiiiiiiiight...thanks for that Red...looking forward to the screwing...

herseyhawkins (59 posts)  9/24/2012 11:54 PM

I only play roto and so can't speak to howard's value in head to head.  but looking at his projected stats, Howard seems wildly inflated.  Why would he have his greatest value ever coming off a back injury, going to a team dominated by the ball hog that is Kobe, and coached by Mike Brown?  He's projected to be #8 overall in 9cat leagues????  It seems grossly optimistic.   

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/25/2012 12:57 AM

Howard may seem wildly inflated, but there are really only three stats in play here: one positive (FG%) and two negatives (FT% and TO). For FT%, the assumption is that he'll return to that 59% mark he held for so long before falling to 49% last season. It's still a category killer, but not the titanic drag it was in 2011-12. As for his offensive efficiency, the feeling is that playing alongside Nash, Kobe, and Gasol will allow him to raise his FG% and lower his TO%. He's flirted with 60% for much of his recent career, making the bump relatively small, but certainly impactful when translated to fantasy value. And the same goes for TO% - the bump there was actually a bit less modest, but I'm not sure why the expectations of a Nash-Howard pairing should be. Kobe is obviously the usage king, but Bynum was able to manage 13.6 FGA per-36 while Kobe went nuts last season, without the added benefit of Nash.

Howard's best 9-cat season was in 2010-11, when he finished 29th.

dasein (625 posts)  9/25/2012 1:05 AM

just from watching Dwight, it seemed like a good chunk of his TOs came from clumsy offensive fouls. Depends how they get him the ball I guess, but not sure that Nash/Gasol help all that much with that. 

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/25/2012 1:08 AM

Per hoopdata, Pau Gasol averaged almost as many assists leading to FGM at the rim (1.7) as Jameer Nelson (2.3) last season. Nash clocked in at 4.7, comfortably the league lead.

dasein (625 posts)  9/25/2012 1:36 AM

Not sure being comparable with jamar nelson is a good thing. 

jpkballin (1 posts)  9/25/2012 2:21 AM

I think the D12 strategy is very viable during auction drafts, but too risky/unpredictable during snake drafts.

thebarnes (37 posts)  9/25/2012 2:40 AM

Really interesting thread and posts everyone, I wont try and out do you with numbers and keep this short and simple.

When you have to do this much 'work' and need such a comprehensive draft strategy and so many things to fall your way just to draft one player and be POSSIBLY successful you answer your own question, its just not worth it.

The sum of drafting multiple players to do what dwight does positively outweighs getting 1 guy like dwight for what you have to do to have it MAYBE work. Why bother.

nogman (9 posts)  9/25/2012 3:43 AM

His [offensive] bball monster projections are too high.

I don't see how he can have a career [offensive] season statistically after a long layoff with back surgery and in a loaded team who has such skilled offensive players like Kobe and Gasol and Nash.

Yeah Nash will get him easy looks no doubt, but 22.7ppg?

His projections seem more suited to next season imo.

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  9/25/2012 12:59 PM

I just noticed u have D12 projected at 59% FT shooting this year? That must be a misprint he hasn't seen 50% in years. Hack-a-Dwight works cause he is almost guaranteed to miss a free throw.

tonika_zr (995 posts)  9/25/2012 1:25 PM

I'm with you HF on this one, 59% from D12? maybe 49% but on 59% I would bet any time for any money double from amount anyone will put.

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/25/2012 1:59 PM

Hailfire, you may want to check his career numbers again: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/3818/career

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/25/2012 2:24 PM

Okay, so we've edited Howard's projection, lowering his mpg from 37 to 35 and dropping his FTA slightly. It's an acknowledgement that he's not likely to begin the season with the minutes he's accustomed to playing, and also lowered his FTA/FGA upon further review. The changes didn't push Howard down much in the rankings (from 8 to 11), but anything that lowers his negative FT% impact actually works out as a positive for his 9-cat impact.

JT Marlin (54 posts)  9/25/2012 4:25 PM

Going back 6 seasons (to 06-07) the highest ranking that Dwight has ever finished a season with was #29 (10-11).  So the BM season projections are telling us that after off-season back surgery, on a new team, with other high usage players, that Dwight is suddenly going to provide #11 overall value?  I'm sorry but this seems like bad advice to me when there are years of evidence that point to the contrary - and this is coming from someone that thinks you are usually right on the money Buser with your analysis and advice.  The high volume terrible FT% will still be killer and the BLK seem to be trending in the wrong direction.  Also, the high FG% on high volume seems too optimistic.  I don't see how he tops his 10-11 #'s/value, which barely put him in the top 30.

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/25/2012 5:33 PM

Why would years of evidence trump everything if he's on a completely new team? I'm actually quite surprised that nobody seems to feel that playing with Steve Nash will help Howard's FG%. To me, that is truly a no-brainer. I've spoken to how adjustments in a few specific categories translate directly to his surprising rank - if you think his volume of offense is headed down, then you must also be anticipating his TO rate to be headed down, which tranlates to a positive for strict rank purposes. Maybe you don't, but we'll certainly have to simply disagree in that regard. With Howard, it's always been as much about far his negatives drop him as how high his positives push him.

dasein (625 posts)  9/25/2012 5:38 PM

I can't be bothered looking it up, but does anyone know how Gortart's FG% changed with/without Nash? 

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/25/2012 5:46 PM

According to NBA.com, 57% with Nash on the floor (1781 min), 47% with him on the bench (333 min). Interestingly enough, Gortat was at 56%/56% in 10-11 (956 on, 679 off). A significant boost in FTA per-36 in both seasons (~1.75x).

link

dasein (625 posts)  9/25/2012 6:29 PM

Wow, 10% difference, albeit with a pretty small sample for the off bench minutes.

It's not that I don't think Nash (and Gasol for that matter) can help bump up his FG%. More that he won't be such a focus on offensive any more...and that's not necessarily because he shouldn't be but more that there are so many more weapons around him now.

I think the general outrage with his projections is that they are assuming best case scenario; both %'s go up with little change in volume, blks are up on the last couple of years, TOs go down. And as others have said, coming of an injury and joining a new team loaded with talent are both good reasons to be skeptical of the best case occuring.

Feels a little like when KG first came to Boston. Everyone was sure he was worth the no.1 overall pick that year, but his usage and minutes plummited simply because he didn't have to do everything anymore. Consequently, he returned a dissapointing 2nd round value that year. I've been wary of overestimating guys who are changing teams ever since. Same goes for Bynum btw, but even more so because he has never been the main man before.  

LA9erFan (1 posts)  9/25/2012 7:01 PM

I'm in the midst of an offline draft in a Keeper League where I'm employing the Dwight strategy, and I've gotten very lucky in the first 4 rounds. I'm curious about who you guys think I should be targeting in the 5th round (56th overall) and beyond.

#8 - Dwight Howard

#17 - Josh Smith (I was shocked by this)

#32 - Blake Griffin

#41 - Andre Iguodala

bruin99 (201 posts)  9/25/2012 7:26 PM

I'd be looking at Assists with my 5th/6th picks.  So I'd shoot for 2 of Jrue, Lin, Parker or Teague, no particular order. 

You're at the point where you need to shore up your 3's in the 7-8-9, however there are some prime punt FT% candidates in those rounds as well.  7th/8th/9th I'd be looking at McGee, Faried, DeAndre Jordan (in that order) for reb/blocks and/or JR Smith/Dudley/OJ Mayo (in that order) for 3s.  Depending on who you get for Assists in the 5th/6th, if they are decent at 3s (Jrue) concentrate on bigs first, if they suck at 3s (Parker) concentrate on 3s first.

From then on (10th+) shore up your weaknesses with - Hayward (3s), George Hill (Assists/3s), Pekovic (Scoring/Rebounds/FG%), Ridnour (asst/3s), Wright (3s), J Rich (3s), Udoh (Blcks).

ak murthy (196 posts)  9/25/2012 7:40 PM

 

I'm in the midst of an offline draft in a Keeper League where I'm employing the Dwight strategy, and I've gotten very lucky in the first 4 rounds. I'm curious about who you guys think I should be targeting in the 5th round (56th overall) and beyond.

#8 - Dwight Howard

#17 - Josh Smith (I was shocked by this)

#32 - Blake Griffin

#41 - Andre Iguodala

WOW! That is freaking incredible, as a frequent employer of the strategy that's about as good as it gets. If there's any way you could make a deal for Rondo while keeping those 4, you'd be in great shape. Otherwise, like someone else said, go after an assist heavy guard. Who's on the board?

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/25/2012 7:42 PM

@dasein - KG's per-minute impact rose from 06-07 (7th, 0.34) to 07-08 (3rd, 0.39), but he lost 7 mpg in the exchange, so his per-game rank fell from 3rd to 7th in the exchange. The efficiency spike was clearly substantial enough to cover for any lost usage. I don't think anyone that disagrees with this ranking is expecting Howard to lose *that* many minutes, are they?

@LA9erFan - feel free to create a new post in the "Add/Drops and Team Evaluation" section for those types of specific questions

dasein (625 posts)  9/25/2012 8:09 PM

Can't speak for the others, but I'd give him 35mpg, a shade under 19ppg, 13 boards, 1.5 stls, 2.0 blks, league leading FG boost and FT drain. I'll give you a sizable improvement in TOs too. That puts him just inside the top 30 on my 9-cat board, which feels about right to me.

Obviously, if I'm wrong about the minutes, the counting stats get better.  

NCSU86 (51 posts)  9/27/2012 11:30 PM

So, is D12 worth the 6th pick in a 14-team H2H? I;m torn between him and DWade.

dasein (625 posts)  9/28/2012 12:00 AM

If you're picking now, you might be able to get both. Injury is still up in the air so he could drop. 

JT Marlin (54 posts)  9/28/2012 2:01 PM

Forgetting the overly optimistic stat projections for Dwight, it seems like BM is completely overlooking the back surgery that he had done in the offseason.  To me, this is a big deal.  Any back surgery is major as far as I'm concerned.  He may miss games and not play as much to start the season and who knows when he'll be back to close to 100%.  An 80% Howard is clearly not a first rd pick, as his REB & BLK #'s will surely be affected.  Who knows though, maybe he got an implant to guide his FT shooting...

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/29/2012 12:08 PM

Dwight Howard aiming to play in Lakers' opener [link]

Da Ruhl (174 posts)  9/29/2012 9:22 PM

I still think he's a bit optimistic. Would probably trim 1 - 2% out of fg%, 2-3% out of ft%, and add .3 or so to TO.

Think this accounts for some back surgery related effects. Agree his ft% should rebound from last season, but not sure I would ignore last season completely which 5.93 (current projection) does. FG% being up is legit, but seems like a big-ish jump - although of the three I mention above seems the most reasonable. TO projection seems a bit aggressive given assists and FGA/FTA fall by a much lower percentage.

Just my 2c, certainly room to disagree. But see the big improvements in all 3 as unlikely given surgery and finding a role in a new team running a new offense.

-DR

margmarg (1 posts)  10/26/2012 1:18 AM

i play in h2h league w/ offensive rebounds and techs (so 11 cat). usually ignore the latter but the former gives huge skew towards PF/C positions and thus FT punting

with d12, does punting two cats make sense here? 3's or assts come to mind. (latter comes down to if you get rondo or not basically)

rico381 (280 posts)  10/26/2012 1:38 AM

Techs are an incredibly stupid category, but if your league counts them and weighs them just the same as any other category, Dwiht gets downgraded pretty harshly, because he's always one of the league leaders, and if guys like Perkins and World Peace aren't even owned, he's got even less competition.

Punting two cats can make a lot of sense in the right build.  Dwight gives you a pretty terrible start in your team's A/TO ratio, and I've often found you have to punt one or the other and get something like a 12-1 split there, or be below average in both categories.  Last year I had a successful 16-team Dwight build that punted assists, stockpiled swingmen with threes/steals/block numbers (Batum, George, Dorell, Rush, Dunleavy, Gerald or Danny Green, and Delfino are a few names that come to mind off the top of my head), and almost never won assists, but also almost always won turnovers, and was strong or at least competitive in just about every other category besides FT%, with a lot of flexibility week-to-week. 

mtofell (18 posts)  11/21/2012 11:36 PM

Anyone watch the game tonight are worry D Howard is injured?  3FGA?  And, more than that.... it seemed that running up and down the court was about all he could do.  Numerous times he'd get the ball with good low post position and pass out to a 3-point shooter.  Of course, my first fear is his back.  I sure hope I'm wrong but I don't know what else could explain the lackluster performance.  Unless he's pulling a "pouting" game for some reason??

mbuser (4344 posts)  11/22/2012 1:55 AM

Pouting, yeesh. Likely fatigue. He's been playing a ton, 39 minutes over the past six games, and played 40 minutes yesterday. Lakers play another b2b on Fri/Sat but then only play twice in seven days, so he'll get some rest after the weekend.

tonika_zr (995 posts)  11/28/2012 12:23 AM

DAntoni again playing D12 in almost all 4th qtr in game with one basket difference ... Last time vs Nets they got lucky but not tonite, 20 missed free throws (23-43, 7 missed in 4th), 3-12 from D12 (1-4 in 4th). Hack the Dwight ALWAYS if he is playing in 4th qtr close game.

tonika_zr (995 posts)  11/28/2012 5:32 PM

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/dwight-howard-loses-shooting-contest-kings-mascot-bailey-155450213--nhl.html

tonika_zr (995 posts)  12/2/2012 11:22 PM

Kidd Vucevic (40min, 17-12-1-0-4- FG 15-8,FT 1-1, 1 TO) schooling Mr.Brick (39min, 21-15-0-0-0- FG 13-6,FT 21-9, 4 TO) today.

2nd game in a row (after Indiana 3 days a go) hack D12 worked just fine, down by 6 in 4th QTR ending with 10 pts victory, loved Dumb'Antony back in the Suns days but man,after going to NYK he is lost it completely, playing him again almost in whole 4th QTR... if Nashie doesnt comeback soon this is not looking good.

tonika_zr (995 posts)  12/2/2012 11:30 PM

35% (42-15) in last 3 games and counting...

tonika_zr (995 posts)  12/5/2012 12:40 AM

3rd straight loss in which hack D12 worked fine (5-10 in 4th QTR, not to mention 20+ OF R. from HOU), stubborn MDA will cont.do do the same thing...And they choose him ovewr Phil, 1/4 of season passing, ship tanking fast...

mbuser (4344 posts)  12/5/2012 1:23 AM

Dwight is the one still shooting FTs the same way...

tonika_zr (995 posts)  12/5/2012 2:30 AM

Yes, and knowing that you cant let him play last 6,7 min of games (decided by 1 or 2pt) shooting 6,8,10 Fts with 45 clip, they are 0-3 in last 3 games which they loose it doing that, but would not be 1st time HC's being stuborn no matter its obvious some things doesnt work, keep loosing in that way and he will get ax even before Nashi is back.

ak murthy (196 posts)  12/5/2012 3:40 AM

I understand the complaints from a real-life perspective, but from a fantasy perspective who cares about Dwight's FTs? Howard owners don't play with those...

tonika_zr (995 posts)  12/5/2012 4:08 AM

Understand that but this is not a forum regarding ONLY and only fantasy basketball but both-real basketball too.

mbuser (4344 posts)  1/7/2013 2:32 PM

Mike Bresnahan ‏@Mike_Bresnahan
Dwight Howard has torn labrum in his right shoulder, is out at least a week.

Jordan Hill and Antawn Jamison will play big minutes while Howard and Gasol (concussion) are sidelined.

mbuser (4344 posts)  1/8/2013 6:35 PM

Mark Medina ‏@MedinaLakersNBA
Dwight Howard said the labrum in right shoulder is not torn. It's separated. That means he won't need surgery

Still out a week and will then be re-evaluated, but it appears that this indeed is not a long-term injury.

tonika_zr (995 posts)  1/22/2013 12:52 PM

http://www.ocregister.com/sports/howard-408753-lakers-team.html

tonika_zr (995 posts)  1/22/2013 12:55 PM

Jarrod N Rudolph

The Brooklyn Nets are preparing to make another run at Dwight Howard, according to a source.

Playing in Brooklyn with Deron Williams and Joe Johnson was at the top of Howard’s list last summer and the Nets are convinced that the seven-time All-Star still has a strong desire to make the Barclays Center his home office. The Nets have played well under P.J. Carlesimo and feel like the addition of Howard could be the piece that gets them to the NBA Finals. 

Brooklyn Nets general manager Billy King has kept a close eye on the struggling Lakers and quietly searched for a third team with an attractive piece that would help facilitate a trade that would deliver Howard to the Nets, according to sources. 

The Lakers have struggled through injuries, a coaching change and a lack of chemistry this season. The team is currently 17-24 and facing the reality that missing the playoffs seems inevitable. The feeling out of Brooklyn is that Howard can be had for the right price because of the Lakers’ struggles and long-term commitment to a collection of pieces that just don’t seem to fit or compliment Howard’s assortment of skills. 

The only missing element was a third team with an attractive piece that would force the Lakers to consider the future of the franchise and directly question Howard about the direction he’s leaning at this point of the season. King, according to sources, was confident that he had a trade proposal that was a perfect fit for all teams involved. 

According to sources, King was planning to contact the Minnesota Timberwolves in order to gauge their interest in a three-team trade that would send Kevin Love to the Lakers, Brook Lopez to the Timberwolves and Dwight Howard to the Nets. Other small pieces would need to be included, but the proposed trade was thought to be intriguing enough to start conversations in the Lakers front office that would force them to deal with Howard earlier than planned. 

That idea, however, was hurt when Love was sidelined 8-10 weeks with a broken hand. The Nets believed the Lakers would be interested in Love, but not an injured Love, even if they’re facing missing the playoffs, according to sources. 

King will still look around for an attractive piece for the Lakers, but won’t make getting Howard as big a priority as last season, according to sources. But he will continue to watch the Lakers and explore intriguing trade options, sources said.

dasein (625 posts)  1/22/2013 1:38 PM

Ah, what would we do without A. Source?

I'm sure the Lakers would be interested in Love. Min, however would hang up the phone. 

nolagoblue (85 posts)  1/23/2013 2:20 PM

Dwight averaging 10.1 shots a night while Kobe averages 22.4. That makes alot of sense to me. Hasn't Kobe learned how awful they are when he scores 30+ points a night? My prediction, Dwight isn't going to resign as long as Kobe is there. Lakers would be smart to get what they can because Dwight is leaving come FA. 

jbtropics (27 posts)  1/24/2013 4:41 PM

In a 20 teams 11 categories h2h keeper league, I have been offered Kirk Hinrich and Dwight. I would give Ty Lawson and Nick Collison. I think it's a good deal for me (punt AST and FT strategy) but I am afraid of Dwight's injury. What do you think ?

dasein (625 posts)  1/24/2013 4:46 PM

@jbtropics. Might not work out for you this year, but going foward it's a big win for you (assuimng you count 2 rebound cats). Depends on whether you can win your league this year though. 

jbtropics (27 posts)  1/24/2013 4:49 PM

Yes we count 2 RB categories, thanks for your feedback dasein.

mbuser (4344 posts)  1/24/2013 6:49 PM

Ken Berger ‏@KBergCBS
Dwight Howard examined today and no further damage found in right shoulder. He's been cleared to play, Lakers say.

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  1/24/2013 7:45 PM

The report I saw said D12 will start tomorrow. I don't own D12 in any of my 7 leagues. But if I did I would shop him heavily after tomorrows game if he can manage not to hurt his shoulder yet again. There are so many bad FT shooters in the league now that finding a trade partner might not be hard at all.

mbuser (4344 posts)  2/1/2013 5:27 PM

Lakers star center Dwight Howard will not play in Friday's game against the Timberwolves and will return to Los Angeles to undergo the increasingly popular platelet-rich plasma therapy on his ailing right shoulder, the team announced. Howard had aggravated the torn labrum in his right shoulder in the Lakers' loss to the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday. "He said there was pain in there, so he'll play when there's no pain," Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni said after shootaround Friday. The team said that Dr. Steven Yoon will perform the procedure Saturday. The procedure consists of centrifuging the patient's blood to isolate platelets and growth factors. The mix is injected into the injured area to accelerate healing. There are mixed reports on the efficacy of the treatment. After the procedure, Howard will rejoin the team in Detroit. He is listed as day to day for Sunday's game against the Pistons and the remaining four games on the current road trip.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/8905455/dwight-howard-los-angeles-lakers-friday-sore-shoulder

Cap. (533 posts)  2/7/2013 1:12 PM

Everyone should worry about what Kobe thinks, that's like not believing in God, or Science.  Why doesn't Howard ask Shaq for advice again, it worked out so well for his free throw shooting. 

KingKobe (157 posts)  2/7/2013 1:59 PM

Kobe is King

tonika_zr (995 posts)  2/7/2013 2:15 PM

Long live the King ! So glad Kobe its spanking him publicly, he hasnt won squot,nada, niente, year after year he is whining and Lakers with him will not win.

"We don't have time for (Howard's shoulder) to heal," Bryant said Wednesday in an exclusive interview with ESPNBoston.com's Jackie MacMullan. "We need some urgency." The interview with MacMullan came one day after Bryant publicly challenged Howard, stating that playing through an injury is "something that you have to balance out and manage." Bryant also asserted that Howard is preoccupied with how he is perceived by fans and media. "Dwight worries too much about what people think," Bryant told MacMullan. "I told him, 'You can't worry about that. It's holding you back.' He says, 'OK, OK, OK,' but it's always hovering around him. "He just wants people to like him. He doesn't want to let anyone down, and that gets him away from what he should be doing."

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/8924249/kobe-bryant-challenges-dwight-howard-return-shoulder-injury-play-pain

So-Tex (248 posts)  2/7/2013 2:52 PM

Yeah, I must admit, as much as it pains me to do so, the alleged rapist has a point there...

If Howard wants to win championships in LA, then he's going to have to quit baby-ing around and suck it up! 

mbuser (4344 posts)  2/7/2013 2:57 PM

Hasn't he been playing with pain? At some point, it is possible for certain injuries to be too painful to play through. Not every injury allows for a "suck it up and play" scenario.

dasein (625 posts)  2/7/2013 7:18 PM

Kobe's biological clock is ticking. Understand the frustration, but Dwight has to look after Dwight. His next big contract is coming up like now- no point kiling himself.

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  2/7/2013 8:11 PM

If D12 is too injured to play then just shut it down. Period. This daily waivering crap makes the entire team wait on edge for D12's game time decision report. The Lakers should A. Make him get the surgery or B. shut him down for 2 weeks then recheck his status. He is making a big deal about playing tonite. This is one game. If he sits the next 4 out was this one game really worth it? With the All star game next week they should shut him down for 10 days miss 3 or 4 games then recheck. Someone will pay D12 so that is not a factor. Kobe is not a doctor and for him to be giving medical advice is kinda creepy.

tonika_zr (995 posts)  2/7/2013 9:12 PM

He sacrificed a kingdom in ORL for ridicule with LAL. Bad swap, yeahh, karma is beyotch.

"Kevin Garnett has always been good at messing with Dwight Howard's head. For example, yelling, "Paint your face, clown!" repeatedly."

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

tonika_zr (995 posts)  2/7/2013 9:21 PM

"Dwight Howard looks really bummed out to be leaving the floor after fouling out. And by "bummed out", I mean he doesn't give a shit."

dasein (625 posts)  2/7/2013 9:30 PM

Down by 30 with 5 minutes to go. The real question is why was Dwight still on the floor with a dodgy shoulder. Nice coaching Mike. 

tonika_zr (995 posts)  2/8/2013 1:49 PM

Dwight Howard's Q Score: Lakers star's popularity has plummeted

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2013-02-08/dwight-howard-los-angeles-lakers-popularity-plummets-q-score-kobe-bryant?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm

tonika_zr (995 posts)  2/15/2013 10:52 AM

Dave McMenamin: Kobe not naming names, but ... "After we lose by 20 or 30 points, we definitely can’t be laughing and joking around".

Stephen A. Smith: Howard Still Thinks He's Going To Brooklyn

SAS: "I had a reliable source tell me this...Dwight Howard will categorically deny it, but i trust my source...when they were playing Toronto recently, he sat there on the court and told Rudy Gay, 'You messed up bad man. You should have waited and ended up with me in Brooklyn next year. That's what he told him.

"Now, here's the problem. He doesn't determine that. He can't force his way to Brooklyn, can't pull that off. You gotta remember, the way the rules are stipulated now, you understand, the reality of the situation is that with the Nets, he had his chance. Now, if they want to let go of Brook Lopez, and they're able to unload Kris Humphries, you know, 
things of that nature, something could happen. But the Nets have to be willing to capitulate and the Lakers have to be convinced he's definitely going to leave. They've got less than a week. 

RR: "He's still saying that? He's still thinks he's going to Brooklyn?"

SAS: "He still believes it."

RR: "Is he delusional or does he...is someone telling him that..."

SAS: "Yes, he does. It's not that it's impossible. It's that he doesn't have the right to dictate anything. Now, he's got an exceptional agent in Dan Fegan, that can make some maneuvers but if Dan Fegan had his way, he would have been in Brooklyn last year. You got to remember when he opted in, to stay in Orlando, he did that behind Dan Fegan's back."

RR: "Dan was not happy about that, I would imagine."

SAS:"So my point is that when Dwight Howard opted in, he did it behind Fegan's back. Fegan had nothing to do with that." 

RR: "Oh yeah, yeah, I know."

SAS: "So, if you could do it behind your agent's back once, you're very unpredictable...."

http://www.netsdaily.com/2013/2/14/3990622/stephen-a-smith-howard-still-thinks-hes-going-to-be-in-brooklyn

mafix (100 posts)  2/15/2013 12:14 PM

As a laker fan, i pray to god we get Lopez and another piece 

tonika_zr (995 posts)  2/15/2013 9:17 PM

Would Boston trade work for Dwight Howard, Lakers?

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/21710534/whats-right-for-dwight-will-lakers-deal-howard

tonika_zr (995 posts)  2/19/2013 4:16 PM

Relations between Kobe Bryant and his Lakers teammate Dwight Howard were beyond icy during the weekend’s All-Star game in Houston — with Howard mocking Bryant behind his back in the locker room, sources exclusively tell Page Six. Amid other reports that the Lakers’ chilly on-court chemistry was spilling into the locker room, we’re told that Howard “grabbed Kobe’s uniform, put it on, and imitated him in front of all the other players on the West team. He was joking and berating Kobe” to fellow NBA stars, including the Clippers’ Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and Oklahoma City Thunder star Kevin Durant. The source added Bryant later arrived in the locker room, “said hello to everyone on the team except Howard, grabbed his stuff and moved as far away from Howard as he could.” Despite a recent clear-the-air meeting in Memphis, relations haven’t thawed. At the game, Bryant said, “It doesn’t matter” what his team does with Howard as the trade deadline approaches. Reps for Bryant and Howard didn’t get back to us last night. 

http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/lakers_still_in_deep_freeze_NdeeieATpo9PUCtdPsNdEO

Bryant is not alone in his concern, sources say. Nash, Pau Gasol and several others also seem fairly uneasy about Howard's commitment to the cause. According to sources, a number of Lakers have their doubts about whether Howard takes the game seriously and "wants it" enough for the challenges the team now faces.

Chris Palmer: Dwight Howard is not happy in LA. He'll walk this summer.

So Dwight mocked Kobe behind his back at all star game. Says@NYPost. Amazing. Guy is a passive aggressive back stabbing fraud.

ZeroStatic (166 posts)  2/20/2013 1:39 AM

I don't like to take too much interest in player's personality, but I think it's definitely true that the more "serious" competitors win championships, and are guys who GM's want to sign. Garnett, Kobe, Duncan they all earned respect through their years of always giving their best every night.

Compare Dwight to someone less naturally gifted like say, Brook Lopez. I think at this point most people would prefer Brook Lopez on their team working hard and playing his role, rather than Dwight complaining and slacking on court.

Of course, I have literally no idea if these stories are even true, but after a while, you start to get a reputation for yourself like Dwight has, especially when you let it affect your game as well.

JT Marlin (54 posts)  4/2/2013 2:02 PM

I love this site Buser and think it's awesome for tracking player values throughout the season.  I also think your fantasy basketball knowledge and foresight is generally really good...that being said I hope you guys learned something from the DHoward preseason ranking disaster.

mbuser (4344 posts)  4/2/2013 2:57 PM

Yes, I'll certainly never project Howard to shoot 59% FT again.

tonika_zr (995 posts)  5/19/2013 7:13 PM

another circus coming...

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/ken-berger/22270956/howard-no-lock-to-return-to-lakers-to-explore-fa-options-intrigued-by-rockets

So-Tex (248 posts)  5/19/2013 10:02 PM

   Yes, I'll certainly never project Howard to shoot 59% FT again.

ROTFLMAO!!!        

Now...please excuse me while I go get a towel, so I can clean off all the iced tea I just spit out all over my computer monitor! 

KingKobe (157 posts)  5/20/2013 6:23 AM

meh.... Howard can leave for all I care, I have never been less impressed with a Laker "superstar". Although he will probably "get it" soon and once he does he will dominate the league a'la Lebron which is very scary.

Or he really was injured and next year he will be back to his dominating self

I really can't decide whether I want him to resign or not. I guess it depends on what they get instead if he doesn't

mbuser (4344 posts)  5/20/2013 1:26 PM

Andrew Bynum? Al Jefferson is out there, but don't they need Howard's defense more than AlJeff's offense? Not much out there otherwise (Blatche, Pachulia).

dasein (625 posts)  5/20/2013 1:48 PM

Even if he does sign, he'll want out in 6 months. If I'm Howard I give Houston a long look. What's not to like there, plus you don't need la for exposure in 2013. Plus I'd love to see a major FA walk from the lakers. 

mbuser (4344 posts)  5/20/2013 1:50 PM

Howard + Asik

dasein (625 posts)  5/20/2013 1:52 PM

Well, you'd trade asik. Wouldn't be difficult. Might even need to s&t to get Howard. 

KingKobe (157 posts)  5/21/2013 12:57 AM

Oh man I would NOT be happy if they got Big Al... I would take Asik over him. The last thing we need is another black hole. Asik I think would be a perfect complement to Pau down low (altough lets be honest, he's probably on his way out too). Pau's always wanted post touches while gaurding the opposing PF (not C) and Asik would make that happen.

Obviously tho Asik is not enough return on Howard

mbuser (4344 posts)  5/21/2013 1:00 AM

Howard is UFA, so you wonder how much leverage the Lakers will have to make any demands when it comes to return.

dasein (625 posts)  5/21/2013 3:36 AM

About the same amount of leverage the suns had when they traded Nash. If dwight decides he wants Houston that's where he'll be. Lakers can choose to get something or get nothing. Depends how much dwight wants the 5th year of course. 

KingKobe (157 posts)  5/21/2013 5:52 AM

I'll take Asik and Parsons and be happy with it

tonika_zr (995 posts)  5/23/2013 2:42 PM

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/227815/Why-Houston-Makes-The-Most-Sense-For-Dwight-Howard

dasein (625 posts)  5/23/2013 4:19 PM

Yup Toni, that's what I'm talking about. 

mbuser (4344 posts)  5/23/2013 11:59 PM

Ahead of his impending free agency, Lakers center Dwight Howard told reporters Thursday that he is “very interested” in moving to Houston and completely ruining the Rockets. “They have a great young core of players with James Harden and Jeremy Lin, so I’d obviously love the chance to go shatter their chemistry and tear the entire locker room apart,” said Howard, adding that he would “relish the opportunity” to totally undermine Rockets head coach Kevin McHale.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/dwight-howard-interested-in-ruining-rockets,32552/

So-Tex (248 posts)  Yesterday 3:20 PM

I'm going to have to buy a new keyboard and monitor pretty soon if I keep spitting out flavored beverages every time I read one of these posts!