Petrocelli (302 posts)  11/20/2012 4:00 PM

I have been playing fantasy hoops a long time.  (My first 4 picks in my first draft were Magic, Moses Malone, Fat Lever, and John "Hot Plate" Williams.)

I was talking to a buddy today who was in that same draft 23 (?) years ago.  We were trying to think if there has ever been as big a collapse of a player in fantasy terms (absent an injury) other than Ersan.

Any other notable collapses you can think of?

paulkeyes (20 posts)  11/20/2012 4:04 PM

Stoudemire last year comes close.

Hailfire4 (520 posts)  11/20/2012 4:11 PM

Dorell Wright just last year went from a top 30 pick to scrubville.

ZeroStatic (166 posts)  11/20/2012 4:13 PM

Players underperform pretty often in fantasy, especially young ones coming into a "breakout" season. Last year in my league someone dropped Channing Frye after a few weeks at the start of the season where he was getting 20 minutes a game and stinking it up. I grabbed him and waited it out, but he never really got back to the top 40 aspirations most saw him as.

Not really a contender for biggest collapse, but it shows why player hype coming into a season can sometimes be unwarranted.

Petrocelli (302 posts)  11/20/2012 5:22 PM

Speaking of Dorell Wright, I had him in an auction keeper league last year where I got to keep him for $3.  It's hard to believe I overpaid!

mbuser (4381 posts)  11/20/2012 6:27 PM

Wright actually finished last season 76th in per-game. Recent epic or epic-ish per-game drop-offs:

Carlos Boozer from 18th (09-10) to 102nd

Jose Calderon from 23rd (08-09) to 124th

Marcus Camby from 16th (09-10) to 105th

Baron Davis from 10th (07-08) to 111th

Raymond Felton from 44th (10-11) to 143rd

Devin Harris from 42nd (08-09) to 123rd

Allen Iverson from 12th (07-08) to 153rd

Joe Johnson from 29th (09-10) to 108th

Chris Kaman from 38th (07-08) to 143rd

Troy Murphy from 14th (09-10) to 350th

Tony Parker from 59th (08-09) to 205th

Amar'e Stoudemire from 8th (10-11) to 83rd

Pockett14 (15 posts)  11/20/2012 8:56 PM

Andris Biedrins

TimD21 (43 posts)  11/20/2012 9:52 PM

Lamar Odom from 48th (2010-11) to going to the shrink doctor (2011-12) 

bruin99 (201 posts)  11/20/2012 10:09 PM

Ersan through first 9 games of last year and this year (2011 then 2012):

The numbers don't line up very nicely, but he had a crapy first half of the season last year, and is having one this year, so it's not like this is uncharted territory.  Last year he turned it around, who knows if he will this year. 

ak murthy (196 posts)  11/20/2012 10:58 PM

Praying that the Ily owner drops him in my league.

Petrocelli (302 posts)  11/21/2012 7:44 AM

Great post Buser.  "Nothing is new under the sun."  (The first Ecclesiastes quote on the forum.)

Petrocelli (302 posts)  11/21/2012 7:45 AM

As an aside, I picked him up off waivers last night.  I now own him on 3 of my 4 teams.  He may suck, but he's worth the 15th spot on my team -- I think.

DoomsVille (30 posts)  11/21/2012 4:12 PM

Dorell's per minute numbers last year were nearly identical to the year before. The only thing that changed were the minutes. Anyone that drafted him thinking he would replicate 2010/2011 was crazy last year. He had unlimited minutes the year before. His numbers were bound to come down.

You're going to be seeing a bunch of that for Portland next year IMO. Right now their main 4 (lillard, batum, matthews, LMA) are playing as many minutes as their bodies can handle (37.5 mpg is the lowest of that foursome...). Next year, when they add a bit of depth, some of them are losing minutes and their numbers will drop a bit (I'm betting on Matthews and/or Batum but we'll see what the offseason brings). 

nolagoblue (85 posts)  11/25/2012 8:28 AM

LOL, this is 3rd year playing fantasy bball, and every year, I've drafted one of those guys listed on Buser's bust list.

09-10 Calderon was my 3rd round pick 

took 10-11 off because I was to focused on fantasy football

11-12 drafted Felton in 5th round of 11-12 (but traded him and Calderon for Gortat before his value went to complete shit)

12-13 drafted Ersan in the 4th round

kwohlge (7 posts)  11/26/2012 1:40 PM

I think Ersan was overrated heavily here -- his 'default' risk  of being worthless was too high -- and I avoided him because of that. Skiles is notorious for screwing around with his teams' lineups and minutes. One night he'll give a guy 48 minutes then they won't play for a month. Factor in that he yanks guys for having a game or two instead of letting them regress to the mean, and you have someone like Ilyasova "busting". It's happened to me before with lower level guys like Gooden, Tyrus Thomas (when on Bulls), etc etc etc. You can't trust a player on a Skiles team except for Brandon Jennings and Mike Dunleavy who both tend to beat expectations for whatever erason

tonika_zr (1032 posts)  11/28/2012 10:06 PM

Misery continues... 13min, zero points, 4 boards and 1 FGA. He has two great obstacles: 1st its his form and 2nd-"players killer" in S.Skiles,

its enough just one to mess up with 4th/5th round value but I'm seeing both of that things thru all season long.

Kazuyo (11 posts)  11/28/2012 10:22 PM

I give up. Off to the waiver wire with you.

AZ18 (105 posts)  11/28/2012 10:22 PM

Scott Skiles is the biggest hurdle to over come for Ersan it seems. Cant do much in these ridiculous minutes and rotations he throws out. (long drawn out sign) 

Squids (18 posts)  12/1/2012 6:59 AM

Dana Barros (and rookie Grant Hill) was the true lynchpin behind me winning the league title in '94-'95. I think I got him in the 12th or 13th round of our draft that season and his stats were 1st/2nd round worthy. The next year he was taken in the 2nd round and fell flat. That he was taken in the 2nd Round was the largest reason for that team's demise. While Ilyasova has had a more remarkable collapse than the '95-'96 Barros season statistically, I'm guessing many teams who took him Rounds 4-6 have had a better chance of recovery than the free-fall of a '95-'96 Barros, '11-'12 Amare or '08-'09 B-Diddy. Successful waiver wire surgery can be performed on a crappy 5th-Rounder if your earlier picks are in place, but getting burned on a Round 1-2 player is true brutality and much harder to mend fences on.

mbuser (4381 posts)  12/1/2012 9:41 AM

Barros' numbers from BkRef:

Squids (18 posts)  12/1/2012 2:19 PM

Matt, Out of curiosity, can you crunch Barros' 8-Cat value of '94-'95 without bending over backwards? Interested to see where he'd stack up against today's studs. No biggie if you can't, but he is one of the few guys I can remember who had one dream season sandwiched by a career of mediocrity. Aaron Brooks '09-'10 looks like another likely candidate.

monkey24 (5 posts)  12/3/2012 11:40 AM

What about D.Wright from last year!

mbuser (4381 posts)  12/3/2012 3:30 PM

Squids - I adjusted Elliot Williams' custom projection to match Barros' production from the season, and this is what was produced for 8-cat:

tonika_zr (1032 posts)  12/3/2012 8:22 PM

8min. in 1st half, 1 FG at,  2 boards, 1as= he will for sure not get out of the funk with idiot Skiles running brainless lineups.

Squids (18 posts)  12/4/2012 1:57 PM

Matt, Very cool for doing that. Thank you. I knew he had a good year, but I had no suspicion it was that good until I took a closer look at the percentages. Pretty heady to be in that kind of company for 8-Cat leagues.

rtracy12 (22 posts)  12/7/2012 12:16 PM

ugh, gortat is turning into my ilyasova

Squids (18 posts)  12/7/2012 2:09 PM

Gortat is hurting the Squids as well. Good thing for Kevin Durant and Varejao. Durant can make any bad team respectable.