misterjwei@yahoo.com (27 posts)  11/29/2012 6:05 PM

Hey guys, I got a question for you.

I have Andy V. and he has been awesome.  But I've also been burned by him in the past.  Seems the past 2 yrs he has started out real hot and then bam bam bam... out for the season.  This yr seems like its routine start.  I'm in a $300 (14 teams ) money league, should I sell now?  And no I dont have another good center behind him...I got Boozer and Pekovic.  But I'm scares I wont have Andy V very much longer if I dont sell high right now.

Thoughts?

mbuser (4378 posts)  11/29/2012 10:12 PM

Not so crazy to think given his recent injury history. And as with any player this high above expectations, it serves you well to at least explore the trade market in any case. In another thread, one LMA owner was thinking about swapping him for AV straight up, to give you an idea. If you'd need a solid FC back, find the player you would want, then look for a package deal where you get the PG/GF upgrade.

scottkimberly (100 posts)  11/29/2012 10:22 PM

Selling high on Varejao might burn you in the end, because if he keeps up his current clip he will finish with an elite stat line.  That being said, he has so much risk, and other high end players offer much more consistency.

I sold high on Varejao in exchange for consistency.  Ended up flipping Varejao/Vucevic for MGasol/Afflalo. Before that, I had one offer accepted where I landed Josh Smith and Mo Williams for Varejao straight up, but the league voted it down.

Just my two cents.

Cap. (553 posts)  12/4/2012 11:09 AM

Can we just take a moment here to recognize just how good he's been so far this season?  Of the 17 games he's played in he's tallied 15 or more rebounds in 13 of them.  After starting the season with a 23 rebound-9 assist game he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, and I think it's pretty safe to say that he's finally tapping into his potential, being consistent, and becoming one of the elite big men in the game.  Just look at his last 11 or so games:

16.6 PTS, 17.7 REB, 7.4 OREB, 3.3 AST, 1.6 STL on .510% FG and .822% FT shooting.

That is insane!  I am crushed I didn't get him in any leagues.  What a beast!  

Ace2377 (36 posts)  12/4/2012 12:14 PM

Have him in one of my two leagues and he's keeping me afloat as Josh Smith and Horford were my top 2 picks. lol.  My only concern is Cleveland trading him; could only hurt his fantasy value.  Trying to decide whether or not I wanna put him out here in offers while the gettin's good or keep riding it out.

ferris (307 posts)  12/4/2012 12:58 PM

recognize!  wild injury risk style scares me though

Cap. (553 posts)  12/4/2012 1:02 PM

How do you trade the NBA's leading rebounder?  He's 30 years old now, and in his prime, but does he go along with the youngsters Irving, Waiters, and Thompson in the Cavs long term plans?  It's too bad Irving went down because at 4-14 now, this season is looking pretty grim.  The fact is, he looks like a player a contending team would pay a pretty penny for this year, particularly since they'd still control him for the next two years as well.  As dumb as it sounds, it might actually be a smart move for Dan Gilbert to unload him now before he comes back down to Earth.  If they get a talented youngster or two in return for him, and add another lottery pick in the draft, then they are sitting very pretty.

nolagoblue (85 posts)  12/4/2012 1:19 PM

Posted this in the trade forum, but want to get more opinions here. I was offered Anthony Davis for Varejao in a keeper league. I'd be able to keep Davis his whole career, and obviously over the long run I'm getting a steal. Problem is my team is currently dominating in a H2H league with Howard, Varejao, Duncan, and Curry as my main cogs. Davis hasn't proved he can stay healthy in the NBA yet, and I'd be losing around 20-30 boards a week if I do this trade. I'd also be losing assists, where I'm already struggling, and gaining in only blocks where I'm already the best at. Not to mention, I'm a HUGE Hornets fan. I'm so torn here, because if Davis doesn't come back healthy, I'm probably ruining any chance I have at winning this year. It's a pretty decent sized $$$ league. What would you guys do?

Ace2377 (36 posts)  12/4/2012 1:21 PM

His stock is as high as it will ever be, Cleveland is going nowhere, and they drafted Zeller.  You are right, a contending team would pay a pretty penny, draft picks included, for his services. 

mbuser (4378 posts)  12/4/2012 1:42 PM

He's currently topping his previous career-best mpg (32.1) by almost five (36.6). Here's how his current per-36s stack up with his career numbers [BkRef]:

Cap. (553 posts)  12/4/2012 2:18 PM

Sorry for making a new post, I couldn't find this thread, thanks for moving it. 

Nolagoblue, that's a tough situation, but I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it.  If you can get Anthony Davis for Varejao in a keeper league you do it and don't look back.  If you're dominating your H2H league so far this year, then you can afford to wait on Davis a bit, with Howard and Duncan manning the middle until then you should still be able to compete in rebounds every week.  Anthony Davis is a once in a decade type player, and a few weeks of rehab is more than worth the wait for the next 10 years of stud keeper value, especially paired up with Howard, that's makes all kinds of sense.  The truth is, as good as Varejao has been so far this season, he's not likely to keep it up.  We've all seen what kind of player he is for 8 years now, and while he might be hitting his prime now, it's not going to last beyond 3-4 more years, and that's if he stays healthy.  I'd take AD and revel in your AD/D12 tag team gluttony when it really gets up and running.

nolagoblue (85 posts)  12/4/2012 2:49 PM

He just added Foye to the deal, I'm going accept before he can change his mind!!!!! Thanks for the help guys.  Hope this doesn't come back to bite me in the rear!!!!!!!!!!! 

herseyhawkins (59 posts)  12/4/2012 5:29 PM

If someone offers you Davis for Varejao straight up in a keeper league, accept it immediately before the other person gets sober.  Varejao is playing out of his head.  More power to him, but if he avoids injury this year, he'll get traded sooner than later to a contender, at which point his stats return to earth.  He is who he is - a 30 year old injury-prone high energy player peaking on a bad team. 

herseyhawkins (59 posts)  12/4/2012 10:35 PM

"One thing and one thing only will stop Varejao and that is injury.  As long as the minutes are there, the numbers will be too."  Well, that and the clock striking midnight and Varejao turning back into a pumpkin.  I like Varejao as much as anyone and wish him all the best, but his stats are simply unsustainable.  Thirty-year-old hustle players don't wake up one day and suddenly become top 10 players.  But don't take my word for it.  Hollinger's Fluke rule is as follows:  "1) At least 28 years of age.  2) Finish with a PER above 14.00.  3)  Post a PER at least 3.00 higher than the previous year's PER." 

Varejao's age and PER in 10-11:  28 years old and 15.21 PER.

Varejao's age and PER in 11-12:  29 years old and 18.23 PER.

Varejao's age and PER in 12-13 (so far):  30 years old and 24.29 PER. 

We have a rare double fluke rule candidate.  And this assumes that Andy stays healthy and is not traded.  Sell, sell, sell.

ferris (307 posts)  12/4/2012 10:50 PM

does the person in your league that owns varejao read these forums? 

herseyhawkins (59 posts)  12/4/2012 10:52 PM

If I had Varejao in 9 of 10 leagues I would trade him in 9 and try to acquire him in the 10th just to flip him for a better player. 

scottkimberly (100 posts)  12/4/2012 11:25 PM

I dealt Varejao and Ginobili for M.Gasol and Afflalo then flipped Afflalo for Ray Felton. I may lose if Varejao stays healthy, but I like the consistency I picked up in the younger Gasol.

mbuser (4378 posts)  12/5/2012 12:24 AM

Varejao's per-game rank last season was 46th, and he's added almost 5 mpg this season. And the projections are already assuming what he's doing now isn't sustainable - he currently 6th overall with a 0.54 value, and his remaining projections have him 11th overall at 0.37.

mt4917 (20 posts)  12/7/2012 12:16 PM

If you look at the team "Ease" rankings, Cleveland on the whole doesn't do much to slow the other team, except in rebounding, where they're a severe outlier.  Which suggests he's not just benefitting from his teammates' poor shooting; he's legitimately outrebounding his opponents too.

mbuser (4378 posts)  12/7/2012 1:17 PM

Yep, CLE is third in the league in FGA and third from the bottom in FG%. Andy V with an insane 6.1 oreb per game.

mbuser (4378 posts)  1/8/2013 3:10 PM

Varejao did not practice, Byron Scott confirmed, he's out for tomorrow against Atlanta. Scott did not have much information, but sounded more pessimistic than he has in past when referring to Varejao's return. He's uncertain whether Varejao will accompany team on 5-game West Coast trip. He has now missed 10 games with the knee injury.
http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/team/1357678064-658-778/varejao-does-not-practice-out.html

Hmm. Seems that maybe those rumblings about this really being something moreserious weren't so far-fetched. But obviously everyone can only sit tight for now and see what happens, but this is discouraging to say the least.

mbuser (4378 posts)  1/8/2013 3:15 PM

http://sulia.com/channel/cleveland-cavaliers/f/1329ddce-1c22-4f16-9023-e9fd41233d8c/?source=twitter

BScott sounded pessimistic today talking about Varejao, then said that wasn't his intent. Scott said to forget about basketball, that he just hoped Varejao was OK and expressed disappointment in this being three straight years Varejao suffered a serious injury. When told he sounded more ominous than usual, Scott said that wasn't his intent. "I'm still trying to be very optimistic that he'll be able to play, I just don't know when," Scott said. "I hope I'm not talking like it's long term or for the season, I'm still optimistic he'll be able to play this year until the doctors tell me something different."

richardpwnsner (53 posts)  1/8/2013 4:18 PM

I tend to think that was just clumsy phrasing. I'd be very curious to hear his inflection, which could make all the difference here (like, if he chuckled before the final sentence, or choked back a sob).

Edit:

Sribb43 (66 posts)  1/9/2013 10:29 AM

Out 6-8 weeks with knee surgery....

herma102 (8 posts)  1/9/2013 10:48 AM

Dropable now in a 12TM 15player league?

Sribb43 (66 posts)  1/9/2013 11:00 AM

I'm going to drop him in my 10 x 15 league.

I just traded him yesterday for Felton in another league when I heard he didnt practice and the news that Felton would be returning early from injury later this month

herma102 (8 posts)  1/9/2013 11:10 AM

Unfortunately the only options on the FA are Brandon Bass, Tayshaun Prince, Tyler Zeller or Hedo Turkoglu.  Byron Mullens and Bogut injured on FA as well.  Anyone worth the Andy drop?  Tyler Zeller is an intriguing option due to his boost in minutes.   I can stash him, but will he even be full strength by playoffs when we will really need him?  

Hailfire4 (520 posts)  1/9/2013 11:48 AM

Andy V has been out 3 weeks already. if ur team is holding its own in the standings I say keep Andy V. however if ur team is sliding than maybe Zeller or someone else would be better. NEVER let a crip drag u to Loserbracketville.

mbuser (4378 posts)  1/9/2013 12:07 PM

Sad stuff. Yes, if you can stash, then do it. If carrying dead weight guarantees you no shot at the playoffs/championship, then try a trade first and a drop second.

tonika_zr (1029 posts)  1/9/2013 2:14 PM

Unfortunately with some players every year is same story again... year after year. 

willboy2 (7 posts)  1/9/2013 4:32 PM

Yahoo reporting he may miss 2 months.

boyyyer (1 posts)  1/13/2013 12:56 PM

is it time to cut bait? there are some decent free agents available in my league..i wonder if someone would pick him up and hold him or if the cavs would even bring him back this year.

# 27680 (27 posts)  1/14/2013 10:55 PM

@boyyyer, he's probably safe to cut. He's a free agent in my $100 H2H standard yahoo 9-cat league and he wasn't picked off waivers in my $100 roto standard yahoo 9-cat league.

mbuser (4378 posts)  1/15/2013 12:13 AM

That's actually a bit surprising for roto. For a contrast, he only hit the wire in one of my four Yahoo! leagues (actually was dropped today), although a few of them are deeper than standard.

Petrocelli (302 posts)  1/21/2013 10:27 AM

Varejao is out for the season.  According to rotoworld, "Anderson Varejao recently developed a blood clot in his lung and is out for the season."

Hailfire4 (520 posts)  1/21/2013 10:48 AM

Third year in a row Andy V couldn't finish the season. This is why u trade him when he is playing well. Zeller and Tristan now seem safe in their new roles/ minute outlooks.

Cap. (553 posts)  1/21/2013 11:09 AM

Sounds scary, hopefully he makes a full recovery, he's really a great player when he's able.  It might be a bit insensitive to say this now, but maybe the worst part for Cleveland is that his trade value goes out the window.  It would have been really interesting to see what they could have gotten for him when he was in his prime, certainly something significant to tie into their Irving-Waiters-Thompson-Zeller core, whether it was young talent or a draft pick.  Now it seems they'll have to live with his 9.5 million over the next two years unless he comes back strong next year so they can trade him, or they decide to decline their team option in 2014.  Either way, they missed a big opportunity to cash in.

Petrocelli (302 posts)  1/21/2013 11:50 AM

I have him in 2 keeper leagues with $260 budgets to fill rosters.  In one league I git him for $11.  In the other, I got him for $9.  It looks like I will have to hold on to him at those prices.   Does anyone disagree?

mbuser (4378 posts)  1/21/2013 12:28 PM

Yeah I don't think you can let him go at those prices.

-----

I feel bad for the Cavs, as Cap said, but I feel really bad for Varejao himself. I would have loved to see him on a contender.

ferris (307 posts)  1/21/2013 1:19 PM

that's going to be a great price for AV next year

richardpwnsner (53 posts)  1/26/2013 8:09 AM

Somehow missed this. Hot damn! Glad I picked up TT earlier in the season, regardless of how weird he looks in my punt FG lineup. This and Ilya might even make up for my "brilliant" Jennings-for-Love swap.

Massmonic (15 posts)  6/4/2013 7:41 PM

According to most recent news item, Varejao will be ready to go at the start of camp. Obviously at this point there are a lot of unknowns such as if he get traded, if he is really healthy, who Cleveland drafts or otherwise acquires, etc. For this exercise, let's say he is healthy, produces at his post-James per-36 rate, gets about 32 minutes (I don't think 36 is sustainable) and that he is an injury risk. When do you draft him?

Both of my keeper leagues are H2H and count double-doubles (my least favorite category). When Varejao is in the line-up he is very scary for your opponents, potentially putting up 1^st round stats. Obviously, rebounds and doubles are huge and he really doesn’t hurt you anywhere except that he won’t be making 3s. This would be huge if it happens during the playoffs. Also, he is probably going to spend time on your IR.

Here are my thoughts: for my 12 team league, the first priority is to get my 5 positions covered, plug some holes in the next two rounds and then start looking for Varejao in round 8 or later (around pick 90 or so).

For my 16 team league, I could reach out as a 4^th or 5^th starter just because the advantage I would have when he is in the line-up (around pick 60).

What do you think he ADP will be?

Hailfire4 (520 posts)  6/4/2013 8:41 PM

AV is hard to peg. First round production but 40 games seems to be his limit. No matter where u draft him I think u have to look to trade him fairly quick after the first month. Like most players it depends on Yahoo ranking but he should go before some autodrafter gets stuck with him. The man almost died. In the 5th round I think I would grab him.