JT Marlin (54 posts)  9/27/2012 9:26 AM

It seems like this headcase has been in the league forever but he only just turned 27 and really came on last season with the Knicks.  Aside from the attitude & decision-making issues, the biggest thing holding him back in fantasy has been a lack of minutes - he's never averaged over 28 MPG in any season.  His per 36 #'s from the past 4 seasons are really good for fantasy.  Due to starting the year in China, he only played about half the NBA season for the Knicks.  Over the last month of the season (16 games), he was the #15 ranked player, averaging close to 33 MPG - highlighted with 2.5 3PM & 2.1 STL and other solid stats across the board. 

The opportunity is there for him in NY and he should be the starting SG with minimal competion while Shumpert is out.  I don't see Ronnie Brewer as much of a threat and both will have to play some SF at times while Carmelo rests.  Am I crazy for thinking that JR will finally put it all together and see 32+ MPG and provide top 30 fantasy value?  

HYEPWRD (13 posts)  9/27/2012 9:40 AM

Not crazy at all. Very good gamble with super high side. People talk about him being flakey---but he doesnt miss games and is very consistant in per36 numbers wheather starting or coming off the bench. Hes been a top 6th man in the league tha last 5 years. Plus brewer is hurt for at least the 1st month. He a great 3pm guy who is playing with 2 guys that draw doubles. I suspect the 1st month of the season--hes gonna make someone look very smart. He could play 36-38mins the 1st month and be top10 ranked player until the rotation catches up

dcentury (16 posts)  9/27/2012 9:52 AM

I agree.  The recent profile on Smith in grantland describes his relationship with Woodson as, basically, the first positive one he's had with an NBA coach, and Woodson is willing to really take the time and mentor him.  so, yeah, starting job is his to lose this year and he could be the steal of the draft. 

bhaveman (11 posts)  9/27/2012 10:54 AM

I see JR as having good upside this year for the same reasons listed above: consistent per minute production, good finish to last year, and a skill set (deep shooting) that is complementary to the mid-range games of Amare and Carmelo.

BUT...

- I think that Felton and Kidd will play a portion of time together in the backcourt.  Kidd, as a spot-up 3 point shooter, will play more SG than in the past, partly because he also can't defend PGs.

- Brewer and Shumpert, when both are healthy (early November and February/March?), add much needed wing defense that JR doesn't provide.  Woodson will like a wing defender, to complement his preference for iso-offence (Melo is all he needs)

- Don't forget about the recently resigned Steve Novak, who can certainly not play SG, but will back up Melo at SF, and play alongside Melo the PF.

Kidd played 29 mpg last year, Felton will get 31+ mpg, Brewer, though injured, is expected to be back for the season opener (12-20 mpg?), and Novak will get his 15-18 mpg.

Long answer, but I think JR is not heading for any kind of minutes explosion. I think he stays sub 30 mpg. 

tonika_zr (986 posts)  9/27/2012 11:15 AM

Maybe in first month and something he will have 30+mpg but do not seeing that for all season,

when all is set and done around 25-27 mpg is to be expected (ofcourse if some injuries

do not ocure with Brewer & Shumpy already out).

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/27/2012 11:30 AM

The great thing about Smith is that we know he can do good things even if he's only getting ~28 mpg, so he's a favored grab for 3PM/STL where he's going (104 ADP, 88 Y!). The real question here is if he'll ever be anything but bad on defense, because he will most certainly not hold off Brewer/Sumpert if that is not the case.

JT Marlin (54 posts)  9/27/2012 2:57 PM

I'm not too worried about the Felton/Kidd backcourt pairing taking away too many of JR's minutes.  I think that the loss of Fields increases his value much more than the addittion of Kidd hurts it.  Also, Shumpert tore his ACL at the start of the playoffs, just like DRose.  Who knows when he'll be back (probably not until at least January) or how effective he'll be this season at all.  Plus Ronnie Brewer's recent knee surgery clouds his availability and effectiveness for the early part of the season.  The team will need both Brewer and JR to play some SF at times too when either Carmelo needs a break or when they go smaller and Melo slides over to PF with Amare at C. The bottom line is that JR has a real opportunity to get a stranglehold on the starting SG job and extended minutes right away this season.  Talent+opportunity+low ADP = great value

KG-PP-RR (1 posts)  10/22/2012 10:54 AM

any news on his sore achilles? im in need of threes and steals and thinking bout adding him in the 9th (14 teams). jamaal crawford is also there but i think jr is way better.    

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/22/2012 11:17 AM

Not much in the way of updates, but in any case I'd be very comfortable grabbing him at that stage of the draft

tonika_zr (986 posts)  12/27/2012 4:33 PM

I have been wrong about JR's minutes... 33 mpg until now (glad I have him in most of mine leagues).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOyRPgOHPC4

Cap. (518 posts)  12/27/2012 6:50 PM

i am officially coining j.r. smith "the best player i'll never own".

tonika_zr (986 posts)  12/28/2012 11:47 AM

He is golden this year (TOP 40, TOP 50 ranks) and all that from 8th,9th ADP.