What are the expectations for Sam Dalembert and Ersan Ilyasova this year? How much will Drew Gooden cut into their minutes? Will each get decent playing time?
0% Agree (0 votes) |
 | Cap. (552 posts) 10/2/2012 7:13 PM |
I think there's enough minutes for all three of these guys, with Larry Sanders picking up the leftovers. Ilyasova is likely a top 50 player, and I think Sammy D is great value where he's being drafted, and could be just below his career per-36s of 11.2/11.5/2.6 on .520% and .750% shooting.
0% Agree (1 vote) |
The potential Ilyasova showed at times last year was downright silly. He could be a rare combination of points, rebounds, FG%, and 3's and I think he might be flying under radars in some leagues. I think he's in for a huge year depending on what Scott Skiles sees in the tea leaves every week.
100% Agree (3 votes) |
The reason I ask is that Dalembert is one of the few bigs who shoots FT at a decent clip (albeit not that often). I am considering punting points, and if I do, and if Dalembert will get minutes, he is definitely on my radar. Thoughts on Dalembert as a points-punting option?
0% Agree (0 votes) |
 | mbuser (4375 posts) 10/2/2012 10:40 PM |
Excellent target in a punt points build. The nice thing about Dalembert is that we know he can contribute even in that 22-24 mpg range, so there not much downside from where you can get him.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
 | rico381 (289 posts) 10/2/2012 11:37 PM |
Don't forget about Ekpe Udoh, either. He and John Henson are going to get into the mix too, probably competing with Gooden for minutes off the bench.
100% Agree (1 vote) |
Am I wrong to think that Ilyasova had kind of a fluke season? Those numbers came outta nowhere and it was a contract season and all. Just a thought.
100% Agree (1 vote) |
| mbuser (4375 posts) 10/3/2012 1:43 AM |
Check his career per-36s and you'll see that the spike wasn't so outlandish for a 24-year-old seeing the first truly consistent minutes of his career. The one number that stands out as most difficult to repeat is 45% from three (!), but he was top-10 over the season's second half in just 31 minutes per game for much more than threes. Bump up those minutes even a bit and, even with a fairly serious regression in 3P%, it's hard to not see 54 as a bargain ADP.
50% Agree (2 votes) |
I guess you never know with Skiles but I can't imagine a scenario in which Illyasova does not at least match his 30.5 MPG from the last 2 months of the season. If he can match or exceed that, then he's going to outperform his current ADP. He's 25, heading into the prime of his career, and just signed a 5 year $40M deal. Udoh will back-up Dalembert at C and Gooden will be in the mix for back-up minutes at both PF & C. I can see Ersan at 32 MPG, Dalembert at 25 MPG, Gooden at 24 MPG and then 15 MPG for Udoh/Sanders/Henson. Some of these guys are either going to be in the DLeague or not in the rotation. If you look at the current MIL roster, you'll see that they are too loaded with players, especially after the Pryzbilla & Daniels signings.
In 32 starts after Feb 15, Ersan was the #8 overall per game 9-cat player. He's a young emerging player and total bargain at pick #54 with people worried about guys like Gooden, Dalembert & Udoh stealing his thunder. Don't overthink this.
100% Agree (4 votes) |
Not sure how much stock to put in preseason minutes, but Ersan's aren't looking too consistent so far. I'm scared of Skiles.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
Yeah, I'd go ahead and put very little stock in preseason minutes.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
| rico381 (289 posts) 10/17/2012 1:05 AM |
Every coach is inconsistent with preseason minutes. That doesn't mean you shouldn't be afraid of Skiles; just that if you are, it should be for other reasons than his preseason rotations.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
Ilyasova still on the up-trending arc of his career, while Dalembert on the down. With so many options for Skiles at C, Dalembert has risk for less than 25 mpg, while his productivity may also start to decline. I think BBM's projections are slightly high.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
| choppra (6 posts) 10/22/2012 7:24 PM |
That entire team scares me. Skiles tends to shake things up a lot. Ersan is a stud but he needs consistent minutes to contribute to a fantasy team.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
Dont worry, like TYoung, Ilya can play, he is far in front from other competition at his position, min.30mpg w/o any problems.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
I pickee him up last year, never looked back.
My only concern though, is how much of last years break-out was him playing for a contract? Do you see any return to norm now hes earning the big bucks? (no pun intended)
0% Agree (0 votes) |
Dont worry, having no doubts he will be just fine.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
| Beau (1 posts) 11/7/2012 12:56 AM |
Wow the dude that said he thought that Ilyasova had a fluke year might be right. The dude has looked aweful.
0% Agree (0 votes) |
| nykos (96 posts) 11/7/2012 9:44 AM |
could we launch the debate here around the frontcourt playing time?
There is Henson coming back soon. It seems now Sanders & Dalembert are owning / switching the center position & there is Ilyasova, Henson & Udoh for Power Forward? there is also Gooden to add.... lots of people... + Skiles to manage that.
How do you feel with BBM projections of 33minutes? who could we think will be benched for good by Skiles?
0% Agree (0 votes) |
Wish I'd stuck to my own gut feeling about Ersan just playing for a contract last year......
50% Agree (2 votes) |