Cap. (553 posts)  9/4/2012 11:29 PM

Fine, so it's not the most interesting topic, but so what, we're still two months away, you got a better topic, let's hear it.  The Magic, it seems, are a fantasy wasteland, but we all know that even on bad teams good fantasy players emerge, so how you ranking this team, and when are you drafting them, if at all?

I made the mistake of holding onto to Jameer Nelson too long last year, so I know first hand what an inefficient waste of space he is, but maybe, just maybe, a fire was lit under his ass this offseason, and he will actually step up and lead this team to the honourable priviledge of not being the worst team in the league this year?  He certainly can't do any worse than last year, can he?  At the very least he'll reach 13/6/3/1/1.5 won't he, and if his FG% isn't a total nightmare again, that would yield a nice return on your investment in the late rounds, won't it?

Everyone seems to think Afllalo is the best of the worst here (as shown by his ADP), but I beg to differ, and I'd go as far as to say he's third on the pecking order behind Glen Davis, who's got little to no competition now, and a huuuge hole to fill metaphorically and physically.  Afflalo had a few nice scoring games last year, but his 3.2/2.4/0.6/1.4 supporting stats leave a lot to be desired, so let's face it, drafting this guy in the top 75 this year could be a colossal mistake, especially when J.J. Reddick is essentially the same player.  The Howard trade made it seem like Afflalo was a key piece to the puzzle, and he might have been, but the truth is, he's just a guy who will get you 15 points a game and nothing else.  Glen Davis will get plenty of minutes, and if he doesn't perform well in those minutes his so-called career will be doomed, so I expect him to be the 16/7 player they need him to be.  I know that's a big jump for him, but it's now or never for Big Baby so let's see if he can handle the pressure.

Ayon is an intriguing player with an efficient per-minute potential, but he's still very raw so I find it highly unlikely that he'll be anything more than a blip on the radar this year.  Didn't think I could write so much on the Magic did you?  Neither did I.

ak murthy (196 posts)  9/4/2012 11:59 PM

Im going to be watching Gustavo Ayon very closely, and Big Baby may be interesting. But other than that Im staying away from ORL players.

Hailfire4 (520 posts)  9/5/2012 8:23 AM

Orlando will start 5 players. Orlando will score 80 points a game. So Orlando is a viable fantasy asset. However at this time it seems the entire roster is in position battles except Afflalo and Jameer. I am not so sure Big Baby can geterdone. This team is a waiver wire playa dream that will take months to play out. They still have Turkeyglue also.....

raffrox (4 posts)  9/5/2012 8:48 AM

I think you are downplaying how good Afflalo was for the last two thirds of last season (from Feb 9 onwards - 39 games) he was ranked 45th in 9 cat roto and his stats were 18.0/3.5/2.9, 1.6 3PM, 49.5% FG, 81% FT and 1.4 TO. Reddick hasn't put stats like that up before.

His slow start was due to a disrupted pre-season (I can't remember why) but when he found his groove he was very consistent.

His usage rate should at least be the same in ORL so I think he can at least put up the same stats.

Cap. (553 posts)  9/5/2012 10:42 AM

1.5 threes, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists is not anything to get excited about.  He's a one dimensional player who was terrible at the start of last season who had a few high scoring games sprinkled in here and there.  Not to mention, he was maybe the 4th or 5th option on Denver, and he now becomes, as most of you think, the first option on a horrible Magic team, so not only will he draw more attention defensively, but he'll have a heavier weight on his shoulders, and worse teammates getting him the ball.  Don't get me wrong, I like him as a mid-late round depth play, but certainly not a top 50 pick.  And how is he not in a position battle, I'd say it's the closest battle on the team..

Hailfire4 (520 posts)  9/5/2012 12:30 PM

No way Orlando trades D12 for Afflalo and then not start him. They only think they looked stupid after the trade. if they traded D12 for a bench player it just reached a whole new level of incompetence.

KingKobe (168 posts)  9/6/2012 6:30 AM

To me Afflalo is one of those guys who is very good on a good team (not that I have any data to prove otherwise). Doesn't seem to be the sort of guy who will thrive as the main guy, kinda like Artest. He started last season very slow (if i recall correctly he was contractless until real late), but I'm still staying away. The only guy I would look at on Orlando is Big Baby who i think can easily hit the 16/7 Cap mentioned earlier. JJ is a guy to keep an eye on but I'm not breaking the bank to draft him

dasein (658 posts)  9/6/2012 7:23 AM

I don't know how much incentive the Magic will have to give BBD big minutes. My guess is they want to see what the have in Ayon, Vucivic, the the rooks they drafted this year. I can easily see a situation where nobody gets enough minutes to make an impact. I'll probably be staying away. 

Cap. (553 posts)  9/6/2012 11:04 AM

It's very easy to stay away from this team, and I wouldn't blame you any, but I always believed that if you can find good players on bad teams that most people tend to ignore in the late rounds, it's a good strategy that gives you nice depth.  The only incentive the Magic have to play Big Baby big minutes is 6.5 million dollars a year over the next three years.

JonBoy418 (9 posts)  9/6/2012 7:17 PM

I don't think you can enter any season with the mind frame that any team is a wasteland. Value can be had and the Magic are no exception:

Obviously the big men are the most intriguing since they have the highest ceiling. But there are other options on this team that can pay dividends:

Jameer Nelson could provide low end #2 PG value at #4 PG draft day value (#34 PG ADP)

Aaron Affalo could easily average 17-20 points per game with a couple of threes. 

Im surprised that there is zero talk of Hedo Turkoglu. He's at #123, but could provide good assists for a SF, a three per game, a steal per game.

i think expectations should be in check. I don't think there's a top 50 player on this team, but that doesn't make it a wasteland. It's all about value and if these players start slipping, a late draft pick up can be a contribution to a winning squad.

JT Marlin (60 posts)  10/2/2012 10:08 AM

Older topic but worth the bump.  Glen Davis and Jameer seem like nice bargains at their current ADP: Davis - 109 & Nelson - 113.  These guys are both going to start, see plenty of minutes, and put at stats.  Howard & Anderson are gone and Harrington is questionable to start the season, as he's had 3 knee surgeries over the summer, so who knows how much he will be able to contribute this season at all.  Davis should see huge minutes (36+) at PF/C.  If he gets that kind of run, expect 17PT 9REB 1.5 STL 0.5 BLK with solid FG% and low TO.  His FT% has not been good but it's not a killer.  

Also, Nelson is as boring and yawn inducing as a late round pick can get but the guy is the clear starting PG on this team with very limited and unproven guys backing him up.  He was the #89 ranked player over the last 2 months of the season and I think he can put up those #'s over the full season.

Neither is going to be a home run pick but they both should be solid and outperform their ADP's.

mbuser (4378 posts)  10/2/2012 1:59 PM

I do like Nelson where he's going. But I'd be very careful expecting a solid FG% and that many steals from Davis. A 10-game sample does not necessarily trump what he's done in his other 7000 career minutes. We're talking about a 44% career shooter here, and those ISO and spot-up shots he takes as "the man" are going to work against him. As discussed in the podcast, I like Ayon as a late-round pick, particularly with Al Harrington absent for all of camp (and likely beyond).

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/2/2012 3:00 PM

Glen Davis - first, look at his stats when Howard is off the court:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#Glen-Davis-vs-Dwight-Howard|201175,2730;year=201112;season=r

17.4 points, 46% FG, 9.1 reb, 1.2 Asst, 4.9 FT per 36 minutes.  If we assume he'll get 36 minutes which is reasonable and plug in those stats along with the BBM defaults for the rest, he's only rated the 129th player.

Lets also not get confused on something, for a big he is a poor shot (46%), a poor FT% (70%), and a poor blocker, 0.5/36 min. 

Last, I think he'll do worse than last year because Ryan Anderson helped space the floor for Davis.  Harrington might, but he's not playing.  Ayon or Vucevic won't.  This is confirmed by looking at his per-36 with Anderson off the court, Davis shot 39%:

http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player-vs-player.html#Glen-Davis-vs-Ryan-Anderson|201175,201583;year=201112;season=r

People are wowed by his 17 point 9 rebound, but fail to realize everything behind that is terrible, terrible FG%, terrible FT%, terrible ancillary stats.  I think he'll go higher than he should, so I'm pretty much staying away from him.  Only way I'd consider him is if I'm doing a punt blocks or punt FG% strategy, even then I'd only pick him in the 10th or 11th round which is about where he's going anyways.

And this is all assuming he gets 36min, there's still the off chance with Vucevic, Ayon and Harrington that he gets less than 36min.

rico381 (290 posts)  10/2/2012 5:08 PM

@bruin99: 36 minutes per game is a very optimistic projection.  17 players got 36 minutes per game last year.  Of them, 14 were current or former all-stars, and the other 3 were Rudy Gay, Monta Ellis, and John Wall.  Glen Davis has career per-36s of 13.3 points and 7.3 rebounds on .497 TS%, which dipped to .466 last year.  I think it's fair to say he's not nearly on the tier of those other players.  Based on his career 12.1 PER (reaching a peak of 13.2 last season) and terrible on/off court splits, I wouldn't be surprised if he's not even one of Orlando's best two PF/Cs. 

Even if he does get that many minutes, consider that he ranked 378th in per-minute value last year.  Let someone else overdraft him.

JT Marlin (60 posts)  10/3/2012 9:11 AM

@bruin & rico - that's good advice guys backed up by how his #'s actually back into the rankings.  I didn't realize how below average he really is for fantasy - he's one of those counting stat guys that doesn't provide enough in the other categories.  Better to pass on Davis and target a guy like Hickson, who is going 30 picks later, should see 30+MPG, and will provide better fantasy stats. 

rico381 (290 posts)  10/4/2012 5:36 AM

Hickson?  The guy who ranked 330th in per-minute value last season and 317th the year before?  He's just as bad as Davis, I'm afraid.  Hickson is a big man with a bad FG% and FT%, unimpressive defensive stats, and high TOs, which is just a terrible combination.  He figures to be an asset in rebounding but bad enough in the other 8 categories to not reach top 150 production.  He was in a similar situation in 10-11 when he got 28.2 minutes in Cleveland and he only managed to rank 210th, for reference. 

JT Marlin (60 posts)  10/4/2012 9:04 AM

I would consider Hickson a late rd flier at best and I'm mainly taking into account his last month rank of 74 when he was starting and playing over 30MPG for the Blazers.  His only major negative stat was FT% and he was averaging at least a BLK per game.  Obviously it's a small sample size but he's only 24 and could improve and provide top 90 value, which isn't terrible for a late rd pick (ADP 140).

JonBoy418 (9 posts)  10/4/2012 6:58 PM

My target from the Magic is Gustavo Ayon. The expectation is that he'll be the starting in the front court for the Magic and he has strong defensive / big man stats:

Per36 min stats include: 1.8 steals, 1.5 blocks, 1.5 TO, 8.8REB with strong FG%

Only downside is his lack of scoring, but you could do worse with your last pick.

po1ntgod (17 posts)  10/4/2012 7:00 PM

Thoughts on Jj Redick?