mikael.schvarzman (2 posts)  10/4/2012 1:35 PM

Really struggling in trying to rank K. Leonard, OJ Mayo and Aaron Afflalo.

10 team league. 11 cat - standard 9 cat with DD and Fouls.

Thoughts?

jphanned (90 posts)  10/4/2012 1:38 PM

Kawhi, Mayo, Afflalo.

Cap. (523 posts)  10/4/2012 2:08 PM

If these guys played the exact same amount of minutes this season then I would agree, Leonard, Mayo, and Afflalo, but I think what you have to look at is the competition they have at their positions.  Leonard has his coach's trust no doubt, but he has Ginobili, Jackson, Green, and Neal to contend for playing time, and Popovich is more of a balanced guy in terms of minute distribution.  Afflalo has Reddick to battle with and I'm not even sure which one of them will be the better fantasy player this year.  Mayo has a pretty well defined role on the Mavs, and with only a disheveled Vince Carter and Delonte West pushing him, he should get the most minutes out of the three, so I'd rank them:  Mayo, Leonard, Afflalo.

jphanned (90 posts)  10/4/2012 2:11 PM

Kawhi put up top-75 value last season playing just 24 mpg, so unless you see that number going down, don't see why competition is suddenly an issue.

Cap. (523 posts)  10/4/2012 2:18 PM

It's not really an issue and I agree Leonard will be a fine player this year, but you have to agree that Mayo will play more, so it's the age old question of quality vs. quantity if you ask me, and it also depends if it's roto or H2H.

Cap. (523 posts)  10/4/2012 2:27 PM

It's not really a knock on Leonard as much as it is praise for Danny Green and Gary Neal, I was impressed with them last year so they deserve more minutes too, and Stephen Jackson is not just going to lay down and die either, so it's not like Leonard has all the minutes he can handle like Mayo does.  I'd even go as far to say that Mayo plays a full 3-4 more minutes than Leonard this year.

mbuser (4330 posts)  10/4/2012 2:40 PM

Leonard's qualified per-minute rank last season was 24. Mayo's is 189 for the past three seasons. Unless he's getting something like 2.5x Kawhi's minutes, this is no contest.

Cap. (523 posts)  10/4/2012 2:57 PM

It's at least a contest considering Mayo's going ~6 spots ahead of Leonard in drafts, and like I said, if they played the same amount of minutes then Leonard would clearly be the favorite, but I'd rather have a guy who might not be as good per-minute but is garaunteed a lot of PT, than someone who's slightly better but has more competition for minutes.  Difference of opinion I guess.

jphanned (90 posts)  10/4/2012 3:15 PM

You must REALLY like Luol Deng then, Cap. 

JT Marlin (54 posts)  10/4/2012 3:51 PM

Agreed that Leonard's per minute production last season was way better than Mayo's ever has been but shouldn't we factor in the team switch for Mayo?  Certain players don't live up to the hype and produce right away and it takes a new opportunity/environment/coach & system, along with that player maturing, for them to reach their potential.  Billups career path immediately comes to mind.  The talent has always been there for Mayo. Can we agree that, at only 25, we may not have seen the best that Mayo can offer?

dcdoorknob (206 posts)  10/4/2012 3:54 PM

I'd personally go 1) Leonard, 2) probably neither, either look for a different position or for sure someone like Hayward over both.

Maybe it's just me being a Grizz fan, but I'm not high on Mayo.  He's an inefficient, very streaky player, and I don't see that changing, and I'm not convinced Carlisle is just going to hand him huge minutes.  I mean maybe 30ish mpg but I'm not comfortably expecting 33+ by any stretch, I think Delonte West (who is a better defender) will take some of the SG time, and they've got other options there too (VC, Jae Crowder, maybe Beaubous (sp?)) for whenever Carlisle groes weary of Mayo.  Eh I just think the sentiment that OJ has a clear path to huge minutes might hit a few snags in season.

Afflalo's situation was handled well in the podcast, and I agree with that.

mbuser (4330 posts)  10/4/2012 4:14 PM

We know Mayo can score (particularly when he shoots a lot), but his fantasy ceiling is tied to some combination of supporting stats and efficiency, neither of which has ever been a strong point or project to improve dramatically.

Cap. (523 posts)  10/4/2012 4:20 PM

Not exactly, of course there are a few wastes of minutes around the league, Matthews, Ariza, Deng, but in genereal I tend to look at PT more than per-minute production.  In 2011, Darko Milicic was somewhat productive getting 12.9 PTS and 7.7 REB per-36 minutes, but that doesn't mean he was as valuable as say, Emeka Okafor, who posted similar per-minute production, but got you 10.3/9.5 per game vs. 8.8/5.2.  Ayon's another per-minute guy, but it's not like you'd draft him ahead of Scola, right?  I'm sure Leonard will have his share of 3-steal, 2-block nights, but I also think Mayo will have a few 20+ point, 3-trey, 2-steal nights as well, so we're splitting hairs here.