smitdawg (8 posts)  10/4/2012 4:32 PM

9-cat ROTO....

Who would you pair with KLove to start a draft (keepers)???

Secondly, am I too high on both of these two based on the below projections?  If so, what would you change in the projections???  

Deron - 19.5pts...3.5reb...10.5ast...2.0 3PT...1.4 STL...0.4 bl...3.4 TO...47.5 FG%...84% FT%

Smoove - 22pts...9.6reb...4 ast...0.3 3PT...1.5 STL...2.0 bl...2.8 TO...47.5 FG%...68% FT%

I think Deron's efficiencies return to much higher levels due to better team and I think assists also return as people will actually be able to convert passes...I think better spacing will allow consistent 3PT's for Deron and JJ...better team on defense will allow Deron to increase steals...just my thoughts.

I think Smoove will increase points due to being focal point of offense and better motion without Iso-Joe and I think he'll raise his block totals back to 2/game...early reports suggest he'll avoid 3's (and hopefully long 2's) which should increase his FG% along with better motion on the offense...he has apparently improved his shot, wishfully hoping that translates to a return to closer to the 70's for FT%... 

Thanks in advance for any insight / thoughts / comments / opinions.  

Da Ruhl (173 posts)  10/4/2012 5:10 PM

1) On projections, I think Deron's FG% is optimistic. Not impossible, but he's shot considerably worse than that the past two seasons. It could bounce back but wouldn't be my best guess.

2) I don't love either in the 2nd round (don't hate either there as well). That said, I'd probably go with Smith. A Love/Smith build gives you a PF/C combination with a reasonable (not great) big man FT% and decent blocks - which can be tricky if you draft Love and plan to use him primarily as a C. If he's primarily as a PF, logic may apply less.

I also (much later round) like McGee with Love b/c a) McGee seems to be going cheaply b) McGee does a lot of offset Love's BLK/FG% issues whereas Love helps offset McGee's FT% issue.

-DR

po1ntgod (17 posts)  10/4/2012 6:58 PM

I like Deron Williams but its close.

dcdoorknob (206 posts)  10/4/2012 8:34 PM

I think both of your projections, while not impossible, are pretty optimistic.  Deron's fg% is pretty unlikely to be that high imo, especially with 2 3pm a game (only way he brings up the fg% that high is if he shoots less 3s imo).  Also don't think Smove scores 22 a game.  19 is more in line with what I expect.

smitdawg (8 posts)  10/5/2012 6:18 PM

Thanks everyone for yoru responses.  

I guess my big concern / question is why Deron's FG% won't increase back to his historical levels with Utah (3 year stretch towards the end of his tenure with FG% between 46.9% and 50.1%).  Supporting cast then and now are both good such that he won't face constant double teams.  Only difference I can see is increased 3PT attempts (dcdoorknob you alluded to this) dragging a bit on his FG%, which is why I projected into the lower end of this historical range (e.g. 47.5%)....

The rest of his stat line from my projection, I think, is not outlandish or even overly optimistic given his history (I could be wrong here) with 19.5 pts, 3.5 reb, 10.5 assists, 1.4 stl, 2.0 3PTM, 0.4 bl, 3.4 TO's and 84% FT%.  With my projection as above, his value with BBM is 0.49 and he ranks 5th overall.  Even if I solely change his FG% back to 45%, his value stays at 0.42 and he still ranks 5th overall.  Any further thoughts or comentary on this???

Da Ruhl (173 posts)  10/5/2012 9:40 PM

Hmm... So BBM default projection is:

19.2 pts / 1.6 3ptm / 3.8 reb / 10.2 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.3 BLK / 43.9 FG% / 83.6 FT% / 3.4 TO for a value of 0.16.

Very surprised with the stat line you show, he moves all the way to 0.49 - could be wrong, but doesn't totally make sense to me for 9-cat. It would for 8-cat though.

In terms of FG%, I guess it depends why it was higher in Utah. Could be less 3's, could be better teammates, could be different coach/system (Sloan had a pretty unique offense), etc. Betting FG% reverts and 3's don't seems optimistic.

As a side note, I think he shot .390% in the Olympics... :-)

-DR

smitdawg (8 posts)  10/6/2012 11:22 PM

Yah, DR, it does seem kind of odd...Have increased 3's by 0.4, ast by 0.3, steals by 0.2, points by 0.3, and blocks by 0.1.  Increased FG% by 1.1% (43.9 to 45) and decreased reb from 3.8 to 3.5.  Re-ran the numbers and voila, for 9-cat settings, his value is 0.42.  With the originally projected 47.5% fg%, his value increases to 0.49.  Can someone else run my projection numbers under custom projections to see if they are accurate???  Nonetheless, makes me wonder if that is all he has to do is increase by those small numbers listed above, and he goes from 2nd round to mid-first round value, just like that.  Very interesting.

Grounded Polo (48 posts)  10/7/2012 9:07 AM

I'd prefer to draft Smith so you can secure Love's strengths while also making up for his deficient shot blocking right off the bat, plus his team situation is better as his lost Iso-Joe and didn't trade for him.

That said, I think you're predicting ceiling numbers for both of those guys across the board. If Smith is getting 22 PPG, it's doubtful he'll be shooting such a high percentage. He'll also be going to the free throw line more often and carrying a negative impact there. D-Will will shoot better this year but it won't go through the roof, no one else on that team can create offense for other players, hard to imagine JJ running a play to get two defenders on him then finding DWill wide open for a 3.