Sonic Phantom (23 posts)  10/6/2012 11:59 AM

Where do you draft this guy?  He's in the top 10 in BBM ratings, but a huge part of his value proposition is obviously in blocks.  Am I correct in arguing that for Ibaka's value to really come through, the drafter has to make a conscious effort to eliminate blocks from the values of subsequent players?  Almost similar to punting a cat, but in reverse, no?  Difficulty in pulling this off seems similar though.  Anyway, I'd prob wait to take him until the 3rd round, but would be curious to hear what others think.

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/6/2012 2:35 PM

I'd be looking in the late 2nd, early 3rd round for him if he falls that far.

I don't think you have to make a concious effort to eliminate blocks thereafter, you still need some albiet minimal.  For me, I'd just eliminate all the obvious dominant blockers thereafter - Javale McGee, DeAndre Jordan, Omar Asik come to mind. 

rico381 (280 posts)  10/6/2012 4:39 PM

I'd agree with that strategy for the most part.  You do have to target all the other categories for his blocks value to really be a big deal.  There is one alternative, though: just trade him (or trade for him) at midseason.  Use him to get you a big lead in blocks through a couple months, and then trade him to a team that needs blocks after that.  The pitfalls of this strategy are that trading opportunities may not be reliable if your league isn't that active, and that often people won't value Ibaka as highly as math says they should; if you're in a league where nobody else thinks he's worth a top-20 pick even when he's giving you top-10 value, you're better off trying to keep him and balancce your blocks elsewhere than you are trading him away.

ZeroStatic (166 posts)  10/6/2012 5:01 PM

I wrote this in another thread, but it seems pertinent here:

"I'm avoiding Ibaka in drafts this season. He's going in the second round at the moment, which is value he might give, but I think it's possible he could go backwards a bit from there. I took him in the fifth round last season, and his extremely slow start had me very worried. Until he went berserk at the end of last season, he was hardly even giving fifth round value.

He's a young guy on a great team, so the likelihood is there that he will meet projections, and give early 2nd, late 1st round value, but the possibility of him going back to those early 2011 days of 20-22 minutes and terrible contributions in anything except blocks and rebounds has me worried about paying a second round price for him.

If he doesn't reach the projected 4 blocks per game that BBM has for this season, he'll struggle to match his ADP value."

All of his value is tied up in blocks, and he might struggle to match 4 blocks per game if he loses playing time. Personally, I think he's being overdrafted at the 2nd round, even though he likely will give 2nd round value.

rico381 (280 posts)  10/6/2012 5:15 PM

Loses playing time?  I think the days of 20-22 minutes per game are long gone.  He'll keep getting at least 26 minutes, and is more likely to increase than decrease from last year's 27.2.

My bigger concern is his block rate.  His rate last year was far greater than anything he had done before, a full 150% of his previous career high.  He went from 2.6 blocks/36 his rookie year to 3.2/36 his second year, and then 4.8/36 last year.  His block percentage was the fourth-highest of all time, after never being near that level before this year.  He seems like an obvious case for regression, simply because players usually don't change their block rate that severely in a single season (he went back to a more reasonable 3.7/36 rate in the playoffs, too).  BBM is actually projecting a further increase in his blocks per minute, though.  I can't say I agree with that one.

mbuser (4344 posts)  10/6/2012 6:24 PM

I have few concerns about regressions to previous career averages when we're talking about a 23-year-old who has yet to even top 27 minutes per game. Ibaka's blk/36 was 4.8 for the season, 5.6 for the final two months, and 6.6 for the final month. Any increase in playing time certainly would help offset a drop in blk%, because his other stats come up, too. Unless of course, we should be also expecting a regression everywhere else.

To the original point, he gives you the luxury of not needing to address blocks much in yoru draft after you land him, but as mentioned just turn your attention less from blk-centric players and don't actually look to "reverse punt" the category. You still want to draft value where there is value to be had.

fantasy65 (8 posts)  10/9/2012 1:35 AM

buser how would u rank ibaka,marc gasol, pau saol and cousins in roto 9 cat?

twilo28 (212 posts)  10/9/2012 10:58 AM

This is quite the conundrum, but I will try to answer your question with as much detail as possible. Personally, I would not  recommend  drafting Ibaka unless the value was so great you couldn't pass him up.

His value is so inherently tied to one area that it makes him somewhat of a risk. Will he block 2.8 shots? Probably not. 3.5 seems a distinct possibility, maybe a floor. Here's my issue - if you draft him, in the first two rounds your team will be so deficient in ast, stl, pts, and be subpar in ft%, reb. Also, if you do not properly account for his TO value, that will certainly drop his value in accordance with your team. 

If you want to spend the rest of your draft trying to make up ground in assists, points, steals,  and ft% to a degree - go ahead and be my guest.  A 2nd rd pick that gives you less than  .5 stl & ast is not something that I want. Try grabbing a point guard or small forward that will help you cover all that ground you need to make up in the latter rounds which won't affect you drastically in other areas - Not an easy task.

In order to maximize Ibaka's value, you will most likely need to value the rest of your players by disregarding the blocks category and perhaps emphasizing points and steals more than you normally would.  I choose to draft players that are more well rounded who don't have any major weaknesses. Most people that think they are smartypants will draft Ibaka, thinking that they've gotten themselves a steal. Ibaka is fools gold. 

power101 (327 posts)  10/9/2012 11:32 AM

Agree completely with twilo about ibaka in first two rounds...although mid-to late rd 3 i think is when you can consider pulling trigger. take note though, you can get solid blks later on the cheap (davis, McGee, jordan). Sure, Ibaka will be the top dog in blks, but those other guys wont cost you 1-3rd round pick!

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/9/2012 11:09 PM

You draft 13 players.  Those 13 players are supposed to help you win 9 categories.  If one player (Ibaka) can help you win one of those categories (blocks) by himself, then you now have to pick 12 players that you need to help you win 8 categories. 

mbuser (4344 posts)  10/10/2012 12:36 AM

That is true, bruin, but twilo makes some strong points. You are looking at four heavy minuses with Ibaka, not something you really want to strap yourself with early. While I don't agree that you pass on Ibaka because you can get blocks later. the massive imbalance in his line does make it tough to work with. I'm thinking the ideal spot for him is at the 2-3 turn on a team led by either Durant or James.

twilo28 (212 posts)  10/10/2012 1:02 AM

@bruin99 - So you're saying 9-1 equals 8 and 13-1 is 12. Let me check that and I'll get back to you. I have a buddy who's a rocket scientist, he should be able to confirm this.

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/10/2012 2:43 PM

Everything is strategy and everything has its positives and negatives. 

Ibaka is a specialist.  Whenever you draft a specialist, you are going to make up a lot of ground in that one category, and be deficient in others.  That means you have to adjust your draft strategy to ignore that category speciality in future rounds, which means you now in the case of Ibaka, probably cross 10-15 people off your draft board.  Is it hard to do a draft and cross 10-15 people off your draft board?  If you're an amateur, yes, if you've been around the block then you know who these 10-15 people are to avoid anyways.

Twilo says his strategy is to draft well rounded players.  That's fine, that's a strategy.  But guess what, not many players are 'well rounded'.  By adopting this strategy, Twilo's just crossed 40-50 players that are not well rounded off of his draft board. 

Neither method is right or wrong, they're just strategies.  In then end, you want to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.

If you're entire league is drafting well rounded players, that means they are all ignoring the non-well rounded players.  And guess what, these non-well rounded players are going to go cheap, and the person who can take a lot of non-well rounded players and balance out their characteristics is going to have a dominant team.

If you're entire league is drafting the specialists, that means the well-rounded players are undervalued.  So pick up those well rounded players and you'll have a dominant team.

Ohh, and @twilo, let me take you to the next step of that math equation.  It's easier to fill stats for 8 categories with 12 players than it is to fill stats for 9 categories will 13 players.  The only question is whether Ibaka is worth that 2nd or 3rd round pick (where he is currently going) to accomplish that.

mcolgan (6 posts)  10/10/2012 6:02 PM

blocks is a special category because it's just about always associated with weaknesses in several categories - 3PT, FT%, AST. Ibaka actually doesn't hurt you in FT% because he takes few attempts at the line. The point is when you take Ibaka you aren't taking on the liabilities that come with other players that are dominant in blocks, yet you also aren't punting blocks.

DoomsVille (30 posts)  10/10/2012 7:41 PM

Personally I don't believe in reverse-punting in the nature you suggest.

I think in the draft, your #1 priority is to grab as much talent for your league settings as possible (unless you're on an obvious punt-FT% or something similar strategy).

Talent affords you flexibility. Punting/reverse punting does the exact opposite (removes flexibility). If you find yourself too heavy in a category or two from the draft-the-best-talent-available strategy you can always look to trade/add/drop players. It is easy to adjust when you have flexibility.

So if you draft Ibaka and later in the draft you're faced with the option of a block heavy player or a slightly worse producing guard or something... I would still grab the block strong producer. This protects you from potential injuries and gives you a very valuable trade chip. 

Where am I looking to grab Ibaka? I think 10ish is too much of a risk and removes any flexibility you have. If he's still available around 20th I'll take a look.

Da Ruhl (174 posts)  10/13/2012 11:01 AM

Drafting Ibaka early reduces your flexibility a bit for a balanced team. Specifically, blks become less important so some players (esp. Javale McGee) who people seem to be undervaluing may not make sense for you even if they are BPA. Also, you wind up a bit behind in points, which can be hard to make up later in the draft as most high scorers come off the board early both absolute and relative to their value.

That all said, early in the draft I do believe in BPA, but I'd give Ibaka a bit of a discount on his value based on my thoughts above.

-DR

thparadox (1 posts)  10/14/2012 11:05 AM

Draft strategy:

I like what Doomsville said a lot. Take the best player available.

But I'd also add that in your draft prep you should be figuring out where position and category scarcity lies. Flexibility is great, but if you have no blocks at the end of your draft it's not easy to add that into your lineup. You may now be at the mercy of your trade partners. Depending on the league, it may be hard to find an even trade.

So, I'd take the best player available, but if there are 2-3 players you think have equal talent, your next criteria are scarcity and fit with your current team.

Ibaka:

Ibaka is a very interesting player because (as mentioned by others) his value is mostly tied to one category. Obviously a decline in blocks would severely hurt his value.

However, we should also look at Ibaka's upside. He's one of the few players to rank in the top 15-20 last year and play only 27mpg. Even bump to say 32 mpg could be a huge boon for his value.

Also, he may not contribute much in the other categories, but he doesn't take anything away. So there is a higher ceiling to his value than some other bigs. He has very low TOs and low FTAs at 70%. So I'd say that Ibaka has a much higher probability of cracking the top 10 this year than a guy like Cousins does.

Ibaka + Strategy:

Ibaka is a good pick because blocks are scarce. If you take Ibaka and Mcgee falls in your draft.... take him too. I guarantee that someone will want to trade. The same demand may not be there if you have 3 scoring PGs who don't get many 3s or steals.

Men-in-Cleats (4 posts)  10/17/2012 2:46 PM

I tend to agree with twilo in that Ibaka is fool's gold.  It isn't a matter of eliminating guys off of your board, it is a matter of where you can take them.  You don't have to cross off everybody that isn't a multiple category producer but you might be fairly well served doing it in the early rounds.  I'm not opposed to drafting specialists but taking one in the 2nd round, even in a category that is one of the most difficult to accumulate, will kill you.  The best big men disappear pretty quckly in the first few rounds which means that taking one that only helps you in one of the major big man stats will leave you scrambling in the others.  It is definitely a myth that a specialist can win you a category by themselves as if you put your eggs in one basket you get yourself screwed in weeks they have a short schedule or if they miss a game or two.  In any particular week if you play an opponent that has 2-3 guys that block close to a couple of blocks a game then the chances that one of them goes off and has a couple of big block games is likely and your guy will have to have better than his typical week to catch up.  Specialists work when they are a cheap source of a stat that can be gotten later in the draft but taking them early tends to end poorly. 

There are just way too many more versatile players available in rounds 2-3 as opposed to later in the draft when "versatile" tends to translate to "not particularly good at anything but won't hurt you too much anywhere either."    

johann16 (6 posts)  10/22/2012 10:03 PM

i agree to what buser said earlier..it is easier to pick ibaka if you have lebron or durant..i have ibaka paired with lebron

fromak (23 posts)  10/23/2012 11:30 PM

I actually like Ibaka in the 2nd/3rd and used him as part of a balanced team building strategy. Picking up Ibaka let's you target other bigs who don't really block (Boozer, Pekovic, Ilyasova) and provide more balanced stats. Also, Ibaka's FT doesn't hurt you for a blocking big man (unlike Deandre, McGee, etc.) so you can still dominate in the % columns too. I actually like the options he brings to a draft and feel good about my team which has great big man stats and %'s.

laskern (1 posts)  10/24/2012 1:16 AM

I couldnt help but notice that Serging Serge has been hitting some tripples this pre-season....

 I have not factored it in and would happily take him at the 2-3 turn or maybe slightly before.

I presume its not going to be a huge factor going forward and preseason is not a great indicator of regular season performance but it could be a nice kicker if he hits like 0.3 or dare i say 0.5 threes per game....considering his position.

Not a great scorer but something in the vacinity of 10 and 8 with 3.5 blocks and almost zero TO's is a  decent line for a big considering he doesnt hurt you % wise.

joe.noone@gmail.com (2 posts)  10/26/2012 10:14 PM

when i had my draft last week, Serge was ranked in the second round and i took him about then, and now for some reason on my team analysis and in the projections he is ranked in the 9th round? whats's up monster?

rico381 (280 posts)  10/26/2012 10:24 PM

Did you change your settings or your punt categories?  If you change them in one league and then look at him through that league, you'll see a very different ranking.