castorius (78 posts)  1/18/2013 3:27 PM

I realize it's a little early to talk about this, but I want to be prepared since I'm looking to acquire him to shore up some weak areas in my team.

How drastic a fall are we looking at in his numbers near the end of the regular season (fantasy playoffs for h2h) due to Popovich resting his starters.

Does he miss complete games entirely?  Half of his current numbers?  What are we looking at here based on his past history (last season? anybody got any data)

I could live with 75% of his current numbers, but if he's missing entire games for my fantasy playoffs (it's a h2h league), then that's gonna be a problem. 

Season Stats

Anybody got any best guess or estimate to what his numbers line will look like during the stretch where Popovich will most likely rest him?

nickb739 (16 posts)  1/18/2013 7:24 PM

When exactly are your playoffs?

He will inevitably miss games, but that could as easily come next week as in March. If look at his monthly splits the past few years (example link below) his minutes do not dip significantly in March and April (in the games he actually plays), so that's not really the concern.  If you keep your ear to the ground you should be able to spot start someone else for those one or two games he might miss during your playoffs, but it could be on short notice. Unfortunately that's just part of the deal with TD (and Manu and Parker).

One other thing to consider - TD is in great shape this year. He may not need as much rest as he did in years past. That said, he's not getting any younger...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01/splits/2011/

castorius (78 posts)  1/18/2013 8:18 PM

Thanks for the reply,

My playoffs start on March 25th till the end of the season, so that's 3 weeks from there.

Missing one game in a one week matchup could be very significant in h2h fantasy that doesn't have a games limit.  Alot of these matchups come down to sheer volume of games.  I'm okay if he loses a few minutes, I just hope his numbers don't fall off too far especially if I give up somebody significant to acquire him.

rico381 (279 posts)  1/18/2013 10:45 PM

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2012/12/30/popovich-on-resting-players-i-dont-know-what-the-guidelines-are-do-you/

Here's the hard thing.  Popovich doesn't know what the rules are on resting players, and neither do I.  I don't know if anyone not named David Stern knows, really.  Will Popovich, Spoelstra, and all the other coaches who do it even be allowed to rest players for entire games in April?  I imagine Popovich would try to cut minutes in-game if total DNPs would result in fines, but it's really hard to say what would happen because David Stern never set any rules against this before the fine, and hasn't really cleared it up since, either.

mbuser (4316 posts)  1/19/2013 2:03 PM

The Spurs have two back-to-backs in April [schedule], but the chances of Duncan being rested are really not so much greater than a lot of other players (vets, contenders, etc) when we're talking those final few weeks/days of the season. H2H leagues that run through the true last day of the season are asking for trouble in the first place. But trading for Duncan at the height of his impact in a h2h league is a gamble no matter how you look at it.

dettygt (3 posts)  1/25/2013 10:13 PM

What's going on with Duncan now?  Is it Chris Paul knee syndrome?

This is a really bad time to have both CP3 and Duncan.

JohnRuck (39 posts)  2/3/2013 11:58 AM

any updates on timmah?

mbuser (4316 posts)  2/3/2013 1:00 PM

Not yet, no.

Saikyo (15 posts)  2/3/2013 3:23 PM

buy low opportunity?

Spurlars (10 posts)  2/3/2013 5:31 PM

Roto is reportign with an MRI no structural damage, but I'll guess that they'll take the opportunity to rest him before all star break. They're going on their rodeo road trip, only 3 games next week (plus two after), and Splitter is playing well in his absence.

However it's not to say they won't do so, but the opportunity is clearly there. 

mbuser (4316 posts)  2/4/2013 12:25 AM

Hard to disagree with that speculation but, as mentioned, we shall see. Five games in nine days leading up to the bream, one back-to-back.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/sas/schedule

b1gdoublezero (21 posts)  2/7/2013 12:09 PM

So, when I run the BBM projections for Duncan through the fantasy playoffs, are those projections taking into account Pop easing his workload at the end of the season? Or are those projections assuming a similar output from mid-season?

Looking at making a keeper-league move for him and trading a younger stud.

mbuser (4316 posts)  2/7/2013 2:38 PM

The projections assume a similar workload, although the minutes are downgraded slightly for the last few games. But there doesn't tend to be a drop-off in production when Duncan does play towards the end of the season - he's either in the lineup and counted on for that particular game or he's not.