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Add/Drops and Trade Analysis

Offered #2 overall draft pick for #5 & #23 (14 team H2H, 14 round draft) Refresh

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Referenced Players Durant, Kevin   Horford, Al   Westbrook, Russell   
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Messages
avatarwshuford (13 posts)  10/7/2012 12:07 PM

I'm very tempted to accept this offer.

#5 ranked player on season projections = Steph Curry (0.48)
#23 ranked player on season projections = Branon Jennings/Josh Smith (0.28)

= 0.76 total

 
At #2, I'd get either LeBron or Durant (minimum of 0.89)
 
The offering team would give me their 13th round pick as well (#170). The 170th ranked player = Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (-0.30)
 
#2 + #170 = (0.59), which seems like the lesser side of the deal, but I'm confident that I can find a player on waivers during the course of the season that's a Top 100 talent. The 100th ranked player = Chandler Parsons = (0.07). That swings the trade in my favor, plus I like the flexibilty of being able to cycle thru hot candidates at the bottom of my roster in the beginning of the season.
 
Should I pull the trigger?

100% Agree (1 vote)
avatarDa Ruhl (174 posts)  10/7/2012 12:30 PM

I probably would. A few things to consider:

- Can you negotiate him up from the 13th round on the giveback pick? Worth a shot.

- Do you want to try a punt FT% strategy? If so, you can likely get D12 at 5. Would feel a bit better about this if his health was clear.

- Any chance CP3 or Love falls to 5? If you think you can get one of them, probably not a good trade.

- Do KD & LBJ look good given your league's playoff schedule?

-DR


100% Agree (1 vote)
avatarwshuford (13 posts)  10/8/2012 10:12 AM

I was seriously considering punting FT% and grabbing D12 with the 5th pick. My main concern with that strategy is that my 2nd and 3rd round picks are #23 & #33 because it's a 14 team league. Landing Josh Smith @ 23 & Andre Igoudala @ 33 would be ideal, but if someone grabbed either before me, I'd be stuck reaching for lesser talent. I'd hate to be in a panic and grab Igoudala @ 23, then hope that Rondo is available at 33.

It COULD work, especially in a 10 or 12 team league... but having a rock-solid foundation that I'd get with the #2 pick gives me the flexibility to determine the identity of my team based on what bargains I find later in the draft.

I highly doubt that CP3 or Love would fall to #5. If I had the #4 pick, I'd stay put. 

LBJ & KD have more playoff games (11 & 10) than D12 (9) also.

I've tried to negotiate up to 11th round pick for the giveback and was told NO DEAL. I'll keep trying, but I don't want to let the difference between #142 & #170 ruin my shot at LBJ or KD.

Thanks for your input. I've always wanted to punt around Dwight, but now this offer seems to good to refuse.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarDaCommish (62 posts)  10/8/2012 11:16 AM

Nahhh I would keep Durant/LBJ, they are toooo good to trade away.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarDa Ruhl (174 posts)  10/8/2012 11:03 PM

Agree with youir thoughts, not totally clear cut but I would go for it.

-DR


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarwshuford (13 posts)  10/23/2012 5:28 PM

The draft happened without the trade. I picked Russell Westbrook #5 and Al Horford #23. He picked Kevin Durant #2. Now he wants to still do the trade? My biggest concern is how I'd restructure my team after losing a PG & C... but getting Durant seems worth it. Should I accept the trade?


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarDa Ruhl (174 posts)  10/23/2012 10:36 PM

Tough call. On projections it looks about even I think. If it will really disrupt your team I'd probably pass. Main reason for my change in view from earlier is I think Horford at #23 is a steal - I think he'll finish with first round value.

How do their playoff schedules look?

-DR


0% Agree (0 votes)

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