bruin99 (201 posts)  10/10/2012 4:15 PM

Because DWill has two factors around him that make him sexy:

• People keep thinking it's the cool and correct thing to ignore TOs when you draft.  And when you ignore TOs, DWill becomes a first round player.
• He's a PG who brings you elite level assists, and people keep thinking they need to leave the first two rounds of their draft with elite level assist players.  Think how 'overdrafted' elite level assist players are, DWill, Rondo & Nash.

That doesn't make it right, but if you know how to play the game you know to stay away from these players and let others overdraft them.

So-Tex (242 posts)  10/10/2012 6:24 PM

Bruin's got good points there, but you also need to consider who you're playing with.

I'd imagine in "normal" public leagues on Yahoo, you might find a few guys who really know what they're doing, then about 8 or 9 who probably won't be around after January for one reason or another. And those are probably going to be the ones who will be all geeked up that they took D Will with the #5 pick overall, or some business like that. But I've already been in three different drafts where Deron has gone within the top 12 - and a majority of these guys, if not ALL of them, are pretty solid managers in their own right.

I'm currently running in the Cafe's Octagon Champion's league, where we actually play two leagues, one h2h and one roto, then combine the results to determine an overall champion. In the h2h league, D Will went at the turn (#12) along with Dirk Nowitzki. In the roto league, D Will went # 10 to a completely different manager.

In the BOSF league, Cap took D Will at # 7 overall, but that comes with an asterisk in my opinion. To begin with, that league is HUGE and DEEP - 16 teams, 14 players per roster! So I don't think you can fault a guy for wanting to start off with D Will, considering his next pick would be at #26.

Now, would I have taken Deron to start with? I don't know, I might have considered it. But second-guessing Cap's choice aside, someone still would have taken Deron at some point in the first round in that draft, simply because certain players demand a premium in different types of leagues, Deron Williams and the BOSF being two of those types.

Does that mean I advocate taking D Will in the first round - not at all! I personally don't buy into the hype either. Hell, I own him in another league where we use contracts and a salary cap. The team I inherited had him at the max (20 million per season). I tried moving him this off-season, with no luck. People just don't think he's worth that much, myself included. But, there will always be the one guy who thinks different, and he'll be the one to overpay - hence, why I have him still on that roster at 20 mil for this season.

I'd like to think that those other managers who took D Will in those other leagues actually know what they are doing, and maybe feel the same way as you and I do - that he's going way too high in some cases. However, maybe it's the spirit of competition, or the adrenaline kicking in, or maybe they DO believe the hype and we're in the minority. For whatever reason, managers are going to take D Will wherever they feel he's worth the risk. And if that happens to be in the first round, then so be it.

It's like I've said before - you can tell everyone in the world that a player should or shouldn't be drafted at a certain time, and the world will usually listen and agree with you...but once you get 11 other monkeys into a draft room, conventional wisdom sometimes goes out the window, and there's no telling what people will do!

Sman (3 posts)  10/10/2012 8:04 PM

I will stick up for D-Will...

Between the 07-08 season and 09-10 season inclusive William's minimum average was 18.7 points, 10.5 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 three, 1.1 steals with percentages of 47%FG and 80%FT! If that isn't first round or top 15 value then I don't know what is.

Even in his 53 games with Utah during the 10-11 season he averaged 21 points, 9.7 assists, 4 rebounds, 1.3 steals and threes shooting 46 and 85%.

Apart from his 40% FG last year with NJ his stats weren't were pretty good and that was on a D-League standard team.

This season with a strong team, one that is playoff bound and with greater motivation Deron could have a career season.

Yes, his turnover rate is high but if you look at the leaders in turnovers per game last season: Deron, Wall, Durant, Nash, Rondo, Westbrook, Kobe and Lebron - are you telling me you wouldn't want a least one of these players on your team?

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/10/2012 8:14 PM

He was 22nd in per-game in 09-10 and 13th in 10-11 before he hurt his wrist (start of Feb) and tanked. I'm not really holding last season against him. I like his chances to truly jump into Rd1 this season.

cash415 (1 posts)  10/16/2012 12:13 AM

In a 8 cat league (w/o turnover) with two center spots Deron is an obvious 1st rounder even with his last year's horrid fg%, but in a 9 cat league (w/ turnover) with two center spots Deron is not worth the 6th pick. Let's compare Brandon Jennings and Deron Williams since both produce almost identical numbers.

We all know Jennings doesn't shoot very well from the floor, but he does produce points (16-19), 3's (1.5-2), dimes (5-6), steals (1.5+ key factor), and turnovers (2-2.5 key factor). Similar to Jennings, Deron also produces points (18-20), 3's (1-1.5), dimes (8-10), steals (1-1.3), and turnovers (3-3.5).

Last season Jennings was ranked late 2nd - mid 3rd, whereas Deron was ranked mid 3rd - early 4th. Deron produced better points and dimes, but Jennings produced slightly better 3's, steals, and was 1-1.5 turnover less than Deron. Both shot low 40's from the field.

Why was Jennings ranked one round higher than Deron? I suspect that steals (rare cat) and lower turnover gave Jennings the advantage. Deron is a career 1-1.3 steal per game and a 3-3.5 career in turnovers. Deron's fg%, 3's, and dimes will likely go up this year, but he'll still be mediocre in steals, and he'll still turn the ball over like crazy. 

Does a higher fg%, elite dimes, mediocre steals, and elite turnover numbers warrant Deron as a 6th pick? Not when Jennings and Lawson and the rest can be had 1-1.5 rounds later. Also the depth in point guards this year will make it easier for managers to plug dimes later in the draft.

I rather draft Al Jefferson as my 6th pick since there aren't many elite 20/10 centers that blocks and produces decent ft%. Just look at the names below, all of the elite centers will likely be gone by late 1st - early 2nd. By mid 2nd I'm already gambling on Cousins or Horford or drafting a point guard like Lawson or Jennings.

Aldridge
Pau
Horford
Cousins
Ibaka
Marc
Garnett
Gortat
Howard

KeyboardHero (4 posts)  10/21/2012 8:31 AM

Is Deron Williams 'overrated' in this years draft?  Sure is.  But is he anymore overrated than the other 'reasonable' options out there?

Westbrook - great fantasy player, but top 5?  Low assist, low 3, average fg%, high TO pg?  If he had a SG option he'd be a stud, without it he is closer to 2nd round material to me.  The step down from Chris Paul to Westbrook is pretty big.

Wade - always a stud when he plays most of the season.  How often is that?  And considering injury this year doesn't look promising for a full season (especially come playoffs)

Dirk - Knee

Bynum - Knee

JSmoove - all around stats player with pretty terrible ft% and could easily see a drop in fg% with higher usage. 

Jefferson - top notch C, but a slow player on a fast paced team, with 2 young players with high potential right behind him.  Alot of value wrapped up in low TOs, which I think is one of the most useless stats to consider when drafting

Dwight - great player whose game is based on athleticism, and just under went back surgery.  Also a complete team makeover.

Kobe - age/injuries/team make over

Pau - age/team make over

Aldridge - all around player that doesn't hurt you, but rather low defensive numbers for a big man sure don't help

Irving - young PG whose value is all built up in potential

Or do you reach and go after a high ceiling guy?

Cousins - could easily be a stud, but extremely low FG% for a big - plus who knows how many games (minutes) he misses due to his attitude and fouls (suspensions, kicked out of games, coaches dog house is always a risk)

Curry - ankles of glass, but a top 10 or higher player if could string a full season together.

Honestly I think after 3 (would have been 4 if not for Love's injury) you are just as well off drafting Deron as you are any of the above.  I'd even argue Horford and Milsap may end up being quality picks here (although probably a practice in futility to reach that far for them).   I think one needs to ask themselves how much risk can they swallow early, or who can they target in the 3/4th rounds to match well with the first 2 picks. 

I'm just praying I'm ending up in the top 3 in my competitive leagues.  Every first rounder aside of Lebron/Durant/Paul sure doesn't feel like a safe first round pick to me.

artshowhero (1 posts)  10/22/2012 2:12 PM

Keyboard I'm fully with you, although I would prefer Westbrook over D Will.

I have 5th pick in no TO league.  Everyone else has an injury question and with no TOs Jefferson is a 2nd rounder.

Men-in-Cleats (4 posts)  10/22/2012 4:50 PM

He's one of 4-5 guys in the league that you wouldn't be surprised if he averaged 10 assts a game.  Yes Jennings might be comparable (at least to last year's DW) he's also projected to more like 5-6 ASST's a game which really an enormous difference.  I don't think his value is at #6 overall but I can see it being top 12, particularly in deeper leagues where you don't want to end up with a dud at PG. 

rico381 (279 posts)  10/22/2012 6:47 PM

Why does everyone try to define a PG's value by one category?  There are 9 categories, and everyone competes in all nine of them.  I really don't understand why people do this, and you don't see it in any other case.  When trying to compare bigs, you don't see people say "Nikola Pekovic is one of the few guys in the league who you wouldn't be surprised if he averaged 55% on FGs with high volume" or "Zach Randolph is one of the few guys in the league who you wouldn't be surprised to see grab 12 rebounds a game".  They look at the guy's value across all categories, and rank players based on how much they contribute across the board.

With Deron, it's clear that he just doesn't contribute enough across the board to be worth a first-round pick in 9-cat.  His best-ever season-long rank was 22nd overall, and he's been worse ever since he's gone to Brooklyn.  Is that just because of the lack of talent around him, an issue which has been remedied to some degree, or did Jerry Sloan's system help somewhat?  If he takes more threes, his FG% becomes terrible.  If he shoots more twos, his FG% is palatable, but he doesn't offer much in the way of peripheral stats.  Either way, it just doesn't quite add up to first-round value.  If it's an 8-cat league, it's a different story, of course.

doublea71 (16 posts)  10/27/2012 8:23 PM

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/8559067/deron-williams-brooklyn-nets-says-need-offseason-surgery-ankle

He's saying this now....avoid him at all costs.

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/28/2012 12:56 PM

YES, thanks for the link. This major update is getting swept under the rug for some reason... definitely reason to be very wary of depending on him as your Rd1 foundation. Tread very carefully here.

NCSU86 (51 posts)  10/28/2012 2:03 PM

Drafting tomorrow, want no part of this. Too much PG value in later rounds to risk getting nothing in return for a 1st round pick.

mbuser (4316 posts)  11/1/2012 12:00 PM

Deron Williams playing through bone spurs in his ankle link

Another reminder here. Those that drafted him, I'd likely be looking to trade him somewhere down the line given the risk.

mbuser (4316 posts)  2/11/2013 3:52 PM

You see this a few times every season — a banged up player taking a couple games off before the All-Star Game to get an extended break and get healthy for the stretch run. To that end, the Nets have announced Deron Williams will miss the team’s two games this week — against the Pacers and Nuggets — to help rest inflammation in his ankles. He’s expected to return after the All-Star break. Basically, he gets 8 days off between games to get healthy.
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/11/brooklyn-nets-announce-deron-williams-out-next-two-games/

Sam Amick ‏@sam_amick
Nets announce PG Deron Williams will miss next 2 games because of "synovitis (inflammation of ankle joint linings) in both ankles."

Stefan Bondy ‏@NYDNInterNets
Deron Williams has inflammation in both ankles. He will likely need surgery after the season and has already received a cortisone shot.

mbuser (4316 posts)  2/22/2013 12:01 PM

Tim Bontemps ‏@TimBontemps
P.J. Carlesimo admitted yesterday what has seemed obvious for sometime: Deron Williams won't be 100 percent this year http://m.nypost.com/p/sports/nets/deron_will_be_hurting_all_season_3qlRxoM4mixLk7EnfdSqMK …

Mike Mazzeo ‏@MazzESPN
Deron Williams reveals today he's gotten cortisone shots in both his ankles three times this season (before season, in Jan. yesterday) #Nets

Rotoworld Basketball ‏@Rotoworld_BK
Nets will 'craft plan' to rest Deron Williams http://dlvr.it/2zrxyX

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  2/22/2013 12:36 PM

The translation is: U shoulda traded him when u coulda.