bruin99 (201 posts)  10/13/2012 4:47 PM

Just curious, with Bynum's injury history, if he is out for any extended period of time how does this affect Holiday's value?

My assumption would be usage up, points up, FG% down and Assists down.  I just don't know if this is an overall plus or minus.  Thoughts?

fredfunk (32 posts)  10/13/2012 7:05 PM

Even though Bynum's usage will affect the team in ways different from Hawes and Brand, I tried to use nba.com's advanced stats to see Holiday's numbers while both were off the court.  Surprisingly I found Holiday's scoring went down slightly when they were benched.  His assists, however, went from 5.3 with Brand on the court to 3.6 with him off. Jrue's FG% went from 45% to 42% with Hawes out; stayed at 43% either way with Brand.  These stats may parallel somewhat with Bynum but we can only speculate at this point.  Overall I would say Holiday's value goes down with less assists and worse percentages--unless his scoring goes way up; yet that didn't happen with his other big men absent last year.

I agree this subject is worth looking into, as Jrue is firmly on my radar and Bynum has only one good full healthy season (not to mention bad karma surrounding him. haha). 

herseyhawkins (59 posts)  10/14/2012 5:27 PM

Bynum going down helps holidlay.  It means more touches and shots for him.  as an aside, holiday is set up for a very good season.  l. williams and iguodala are both gone.  holiday is the only ball handler left on the team.  look for him to have a very good season. 

Decaydance (9 posts)  10/14/2012 10:46 PM

l. williams and iguodala are both gone.  holiday is the only ball handler left on the team.  look for him to have a very good season.

I'm not sure I'm 100% on-board with the leap everyone thinks holiday will make with Iggy and L.Williams gone, especially as a distributor.

When Holiday was playing without L.Williams we see an increase in assists (3.6 with lou to 5.5 without) and points (13.2 with lou and 15.1 without).

Likewise with Holiday playing without Iggy we actually see a regression in holidays scoring (14.9 with Iggy to 12.8 points without) no change in assists, and a slight bump in rebounds.

On the other hand, with Evan Turner playing without Iggy we see an increase in assists  (2.9 with Iggy to 4.6 without).

So if anything I'd expect the loss of Iggy and L.Williams to boost Turner more than Holiday.



 

rico381 (279 posts)  10/14/2012 11:49 PM

@Decaydance: That sounds like a pretty significant change in Holiday's numbers with and without Lou.  If you check 2010-11, it's pretty large then, too.  With the Sixers adding some of the lowest-assisting SGs in the league in J-Rich and Nick Young, and no backup PG, Holiday should put up numbers closer to what he did with Lou Will on the bench.

Decaydance (9 posts)  10/15/2012 4:32 AM

@rico381:

You're right. It's possible I was overly harsh on Holiday in my previous post. I'm not completely writing off Jrue Holiday. He should definitely improve because of A) The absence of L.Williams and Iguodala, and B) He's more experienced.

I was mostly trying to point out that Holiday will not be the only distributor in Philly. I think we'll find that Turner will be the one who benefits in assists more so than Holiday (I think Turner really steps it up this year, despite being a not so great fantasy option due to his lack of 3's/stls/blks). I have Holiday penciled in at 6 assists this year no longer playing next to L.Williams.


 

808 mike (20 posts)  10/15/2012 2:30 PM

without bynum on the court...pretty much no one can score(at least not true scorer except for maybe jrich/n.young) on the 76ers..meaning poor decisions making on shot selection by holiday and probablly more double teaming of him...i'm sure his assists/stls will increase but i'm not so sure about his fg%..although without bynum his scoring output is sure to increase..