BlueThunder (4 posts)  9/10/2012 8:37 AM

Hi guys, not sure if this is the right section of the forum to be asking this, so please transfer topic if not.

We have had just the first year of our keeper league, H2H, standard 9-Cat,  keep 5 of 11 players.  My dilemma is choosing my
5 keepers next year.  I would appreciate your inputs. Thanks.

Have to select 5 among these players:

Durant
Horford (he was drop after injury and I got him late in the playoffs)
Lawson
Ibaka
Marc Gasol
Ryan Anderson
Goran Dragic

I'm leaning towards Durant, Horford, Lawson, Gasol and Dragic....without Ibaka!!!   I'm hoping to get another blocker as first pick during draft and thinking I can get either Ibaka, Hibbert (im dropping him) or Davis. If not I can target McGee later?? I also like Anderson but he is on a new team and I'm not certain he can provide the same stats as year.  Thanks.
 

mbuser (4324 posts)  9/10/2012 9:35 AM

I would keep Ibaka ahead of Gasol without hesitation. My five would be Durant, Lawson, Horford, Ibaka, and Dragic. If any are close with Gasol, it's Dragic. And take Davis no matter who you keep if he's available.

tagnc (26 posts)  9/10/2012 10:58 AM

I have to agree with Buser.  Ibaka has a good base with what he did last season, and if he would be incorporated in the offense more, his value only goes up.  And kepp Dragic, I like him and he should be very valuable.  Plus, I don't know how the rest of the league is shaping up, but keeping onlyu Lawson may leave you light in a few categories.  It is h2h, but you want to keep some balance so that you can change your approach if a key injury would happen.

DaCommish (62 posts)  9/10/2012 11:57 AM

I would take Durant, Horford, Lawson, Ibaka, and Dragic.

Is there any way you could trade up? Ie. Lawson/Marc for Irving or even add Ryan Anderson to that package and target Love? You would be overpaying but you want to get the best five keepers possible.

# 26105 (3 posts)  9/10/2012 4:10 PM

Just curious as to why everyone is writing off Marc Gasol so quickly and yet Al Horford is an automatic keeper. I think its at least a tie although I give the tie to Marc. I just think he's a tougher defender with a slightly higher upside. Plus Horford is coming back from  torn pectoral muscle injury and no longer has JJ to stretch the floor for him. 

mbuser (4324 posts)  9/10/2012 4:21 PM

[ Perk, I would take yours to a new thread ]

Nobody is writing off Gasol, this is a reasonably close call. We've already seen Horford post two top-15 seasons and I see a bump in usage from JJ's departure as a good thing. Also, there is no good reason to expect risidual affects from the pec injury, considering that he returned late last season.

Leszczur (3 posts)  9/11/2012 1:49 AM

I was wondering myself why Marc Gasol is take ahead of Horford. I would love Horford for rotisserie, but for H2H Marc has at least as big a potential as Gasol.

rico381 (279 posts)  9/11/2012 4:11 AM

Marc Gasol was ranked #17 last year, in a year where he saw a lot less competition for minutes, rebounding opportunities, and shot attempts than he usually would, due to the absences of Zach Randolph and Darrell Arthur.  In the previous two years, he ranked 45th and 33rd.  His competition will be back this year, and Memphis will be able to use him a little less than they did last year.

In Horford's past two full seasons, he ranked 13th and 19th.  Those numbers were both achieved with a healthy Hawks team; now that JJ is gone, he might get a few more offensive touches, but there's no reason to think he won't be in that early to mid-second-round range again next year.

To look at it a different way, even if Gasol does keep up his 11-12 numbers, we're looking at two players of approximately equal value, with Horford having the edge in FG% and Gasol having the edge in blocks, but with otherwise very similar lines.  BlueThunder already has Ibaka, who was so dominant in blocks last year that if you had him, you were nearly guaranteed first in the league in that category, and he's got Durant and one of Horford/Gasol boosting him there too, plus a few more bigs he may add (perhaps Anthony Davis).  He's going to be the heavy favorite to win blocks each week, and his FG% is worth improving with Horford rather than using Gasol for overkill in a category he'll win nearly every time.

BlueThunder (4 posts)  9/11/2012 8:09 AM

Hi guys, thanks for the feedbacks. I guess I was blinded by Gasol's performance last season but you are right, with Zach back, his
overall performance would go down.  So am keeping  Durant, Horford, Lawson, Ibaka and Dragic  and will target a big guy first on the
draft ( hopefully one of Marc, Davis or Ryan )

@tagnc, i was punting assist last year with only Lawson as my point guard but switch strategy when I lucked out on Dragic and also in part, Ramon Sessions.

@DaCommish,  i don't think we can trade offseason.  The owner of Love though has Rose so I would think he is not keen on trading him. 

joey_hesketh (5 posts)  9/11/2012 9:03 AM

So Horford is FOR SURE a keeper for everyone here?

I've been on the fence about him.

Same with Ersan Ilyasova. He was a surprise pickup for me last year, and now I'm seriously considering spending $30 to keep him ... Ugh.

# 26105 (3 posts)  9/11/2012 9:14 AM

Re: Zach's impact on Marc's #s what are your thoughts about another comparison? For example, last season Pau was able to put up 17/10 and 1.5blk with a healthy Bynum. Even with a healthy Zach I don't think its a strech for Marc to put up similar #'s as last year.

We all know Zach came back from a torn MCL at the end of last year but, he is 31 and has had plenty of injuries over his career (averaged only 57 games per season). Do we expect Zach to pull 20/12 again? At what point does that all mileage catch-with him?

I am not predicting a major drop-off for Z-Bo nor am I predicting Marc is a top 10 overall. However, I do believe Marc's star is still on the rise and matching his output from last season is not out of the question.

mbuser (4324 posts)  9/11/2012 1:01 PM

Gasol is about to turn 28, Horford will be 27 soon - we know what they both are at this point. I don't see Z-Bo cutting into Gasol's per-minute production, but I don't believe we'll see him push 37 mpg with both Z-Bo and D.Arthur healthy.

MrLenbo2424 (6 posts)  9/15/2012 11:41 PM

Ok I am buoyed by all this talk of Horford. 

Here is my 8-cat roto squad with three keepers declared in a few weeks.  And I will rank them in order of my priority - Millsap; Horford; Lowry and then Harden; Nash; George; Granger and Monta Ellis.   I will try to trade up and offer the "over-valued" Harden and Lowry for Deron Williams - but if I can't make a deal - will someone make the case to keep Harden or even Nash over Lowry?  Harden did with mirrors in those 6th man minutes - can he take a step up without getting into KG and Westbrooks way?  Kyle came back from the infection and was run out of Houston by McHale and am wondering if he'll get a time share in Toronto with Calderon - then I am screwed.   What do you all think

KingKobe (155 posts)  9/16/2012 1:28 AM

"over-valued"?? I think not. If Harden is on the board in any third round I'm pouncing. I have a lot more confidence in Harden than I do Lowry. Keep in mind that Harden's success is not a flash in the pan he was always supposed to be playing like this (third pick). And as far as getting in KD and Westbrook's way, thats a complete non-issue for me too. When Harden is on the floor he actually is more of the PG than Westbrook as he becomes the initiatior of most OKC plays. In fact, you could even make an argument that Harden is the safest keeper choice of all the guys on your roster (Milsap - Favors could push for minutes; Horford - returning from long lay-off; Lowry - new team, Calderon). Harden is on the up and will continue to do so for the next few years