joey_hesketh (5 posts)  9/11/2012 6:53 PM

So I've got Chris Paul and Kevin Durant from last years Auction draft locked down for next season, and am wondering if I should even bother Keeping a big man; of which I have Al Horford & Ersan Ilyasova as legitimate options.

The way Ilyasova was playing by the end of last year, I imagine he'll have another solid year, but they shored up the C spot quite heavily this off-season, so that might take away from some of his Rebounds.

Al Horford scares me. I was so excited to have a Big Three of Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Al Horford .. and then he just up and gets injured for the whole season. I know he's been Top 15 pretty consistently, but do we really see him fetching more than $30 in an Auction Draft after last years no show?

Any and all feedback is appreciated!

dasein (624 posts)  9/11/2012 8:26 PM

Horford is definetly a keeper, and Ilysova could be too depending on how many you're allowed to keep and who your other options are.

How the hell did you end up with Durant and Paul in an auction keeper?  Is it a 4 team league or something? 

mbuser (4341 posts)  9/12/2012 3:36 AM

To answer your question in a word: yes. How does the $30 figure factor in to your decision?

joey_hesketh (5 posts)  9/12/2012 8:12 AM

"How the hell did you end up with Durant and Paul in an auction keeper? Is it a 4 team league or something?" -dasein

12-team Actually! And I just had to spend $150 of my $200 draft budget to get them! Haha Then another $35 for Horford. Suffice to say, my team was not very deep.

"To answer your question in a word: yes. How does the $30 figure factor in to your decision?" -mbuser

Thanks for keeping it simple Matt! Haha

And sorry, I should have clarifed the $30 comment; it represents the hit I would take against my $200 Auction Draft Budget, in order to keep him.

So really, unless a guy is slated to cost me more than $30 in the draft, its not really worth it for me to keep him.

Cap. (533 posts)  9/12/2012 11:45 PM

To be honest, I love the studs and duds strategy, so well done securing two of the top 3 players, that's HUGE in a keeper league.  I think Horford will have a nice bounce back season this year, but, if you're saying you only have $50 left, and you'd need to spend $30 of that to keep Horford, I would let him go.  He might actually be worth it on another team, but since you're so tapped out, I'd say you're better off spending that $50 on several lesser players than just Horford, who, for all we know is still an injury risk.  You could get Zach Randolph, David West, and Samuel Dalembert for like $20 total.

mbuser (4341 posts)  9/13/2012 3:55 AM

It's really hard to speak to specific auction values, because each league is a one-off. But agreed with Cap here that you may need to think about depth instead of Horford/Ilyasova if you've already spent 75% of your budget on two players.

dasein (624 posts)  9/13/2012 4:04 AM

I'm interested joey. How did the 'stud and duds' route work out for you last year? Where did you finish? And if you are going to be limited to about $50 every year for your auctions, have you considered trading Paul away for say Ty Lawson and another decent player or two? 

joey_hesketh (5 posts)  9/13/2012 7:32 AM

Thanks for the Feedback guys!

Ok, now to clear up a couple things:

1) Spent 75% of Last Years Draft Budget on Durant/Paul.

For this years Draft, I have my full $200 Auction Budget again, minus $30 for each Keeper I decide to keep.

ie. If I'm only keeping Durant/Paul, that will cost $60 of my $200. Horford, another $30. (and Subsequently, Ilyasova, another $30)

So say I keep 3 guys, I`ll then have spent $90 of my $200 Auction Budget; leaving me with $110, to fill in the remaining 12 spots, leaving me in a far better situation that last year.

2) Studs & Duds - I actually expected a much tougher year, with my focus being on the future; however I still managed to finish 6th in my League of 12, and make the Playoffs.

For this second season, my expectations are far higher.

rico381 (280 posts)  9/13/2012 11:19 AM

That seems like a really flawed keeper system, but you certainly managed to take advantage of it.  In that case, I'd recommend keeping Horford as well for sure.  The thing you have to keep in mind when keepers are maintained below market rate is that that creates inflation throughout the rest of the draft.  If you have a draft with 12*200=$2400 total to spend on everybody, then Horford is right on the borderline of deserving $30.  If all of the league's to 20 or so players are kept for $30 each, though, where they'd cost an average of $45 in the regular draft, then they've only taken $600 out of the pool instead of $900.  This means there's more money left over to spend on everyone else, and it inflates the prices of every remaining player.  Horford becomes a definite keeper in that case, although I wouldn't spend $30 on Ilyasova.

dasein (624 posts)  9/13/2012 2:59 PM

+1