mbuser (4316 posts)  8/27/2012 2:32 PM

I've got an ADP list compiled from four completed mock drafts and two more still in progress. You can view/download it here: http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

I'll be organizing continuous mocks and updating this as we move along.

dubdub (1 posts)  8/28/2012 6:57 AM

buse, just so we're clear... who in the world are nicholas batum, mark gasol and nicola pekovic? 

skimmed to the 100s (my favorite place to look for sleepers) and i'm liking kawhi leonard and the 3 dallas players (DC, mayo and kaman). 

mbuser (4316 posts)  8/28/2012 10:06 AM

Nice.. the original list was a copy/paste and I thought I had caught the spelling errors. Looks like I have now. Thanks.

General feelings so far: the first few rounds of drafts can be a bit sketchy, then there are all kinds of feel-good picks to make in the middle rounds.

mbuser (4316 posts)  8/28/2012 10:44 PM

Sheet is now updated to reflect complete results of mock draft #3

raffrox (4 posts)  8/31/2012 1:53 AM

One thought... Westbrook at 5 seems like a reack to me. I know he's a pg and all but I just think thats too high (ranked 18 last year).

dasein (606 posts)  8/31/2012 2:15 AM

I kinda agree. In H2H, you can make an argument for Westbrook there I think, but you can make a similar argument for Deron and Al Jeff there too. Hell, Kobe's numbers wern't that different from Westbrook's last year and he's going in the late 2nd round. But Wade still has to be sitting above all of them you'd think. 

Smith consistently going in the top 10 and Boogie Cousins in the 2nd round are another couple that I'm just not feeling. 

mbuser (4316 posts)  8/31/2012 12:29 PM

Keep in mind that this ranks will be slanted to h2h - it's the most popular setting by far and will be what setting we assume for most mocks.

Westbrook was 8th and 6th in 8cat per-game over the past two seasons, Deron checked in at 11th and 8th. At this point I find 8cat rankings more relevant for h2h than 9cat, given that TO should largely be assumed to be a function of total games played within a matchup. The qualifier is that it's not always the case, so extremely low- or high-TO players (relative to production) have to be accounted for.

The only thing depressing Wade's ADP right now (relatively speaking) would be health concerns. We get good news early in camp and I don't see how he's not locked into that #5 spot, with Westbrook being considered starting at pick 6.

Al Jeff gets docked in h2h (and helped in roto) because of the freakishly low TO rate. He actually would have established an NBA record for TO% last season had Matt Bonner not barely met the minutes requirement. Jefferson was 6th in 9cat and 15th in 8cat last season.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/tov_pct_season.html

Cousins finished 36th in 8cat last season (54 in 9cat) and has serious growth potential in the FG% category. He led the NBA in FGA at the rim but was well below expected conversion for a big. Some strides there, along with further maturation of skills overall (reb/stl/blk) , and we're talking a monster line.

dasein (606 posts)  8/31/2012 3:18 PM

@ "Cousins finished 36th in 8cat last season (54 in 9cat) and has serious growth potential in the FG% category. He led the NBA in FGA at the rim but was well below expected conversion for a big. Some strides there, along with further maturation of skills overall (reb/stl/blk) , and we're talking a monster line." (We really need a reply function).

How many players can you say this sort of think about though? If he does this and this he's gonna be a monster! I want a proven track record with my top 20 picks. Drafting guys that could potentially justify the spot doesn't make sense to me when there are guys who will almost certainly justify it still on the board. 

mbuser (4316 posts)  8/31/2012 3:54 PM

I get what you are saying to a point, but Cousins is in a pretty specific class where a leap to true fantasy superstardom is not completely unlikely. And the specific improvement I'm talking about (FG% at the rim) is not unlikely, either. Per-36s of 19.5 pts, 11.9 reb, 1.5 stl, and 1.2 blk in 145 games before the age of 22, and with questionable internal/external circumstances. This is not me saying that he should be drafted in top 20, by the way, just that I'm on board with taking a chance on him earlier than others.

# 21817 (1 posts)  8/31/2012 9:16 PM

Hey Matt,

Coulple of questions regarding some of the higher ranked early picks.....

Are you concerned about Millsap (who has been great posting early first round return) with Favours minutes likely to climb and in a position battle (as per your depth chart)?

Makes me think more likely a mid-late second rounder.

Also 2 great guards who you have in second round?

With Dragic I understand his great 2nd round value where he dominated with the rockets last season, but do you think his numbers will be comparable with Gortat running pick/roll in a Suns setting? Also I know little about the rookie backing him up, but read that he is solid and may cut into Dragic's numbers.

As for Ty Lawson (who I loved last year and plan on targeting)...

My feeling was the uptempo style and the AIgg factor should approximately be a wash, meaning a similar projection to last year with a great finish that put him first round in the monster....

Or do you see the Igg factor hurting him more (the way JRue was affected, but this was probably also due to the 76ers system and other players like Lou Will taking his assists also).

Kyle Lowry is a similar 2nd round stud PG, but unless Calderon gets moved he will never match his 36min and likely to end up with lesser value. My feeling is 3rd round given the reduced mins but every site (eg. ESPN fantasy ranking, Hoopsworld etc) all have him as 12-15 ranking.

mbuser (4316 posts)  8/31/2012 11:44 PM

What should put you a bit more at ease is that Millsap only needed 33 minutes to achieve last season's rank - his per-minute numbers were better than Dirk, Harden, and Ibaka. ADP of 17 certainly accounts for a bit of drop-off, but he's not going down too far in any case if that STL% stays the same. Economics dictate that Millsap won't be with the Jazz in 13-14, but I'm not so sure Tyrone Corbin agrees with the popular "Favors deserves to play ahead of Millsap right now" narrative. This will have to be settled in camp, and that's the one definitive statement we can make right now.

Dragic is in a great position to succeed - I'm good with where he's going (33). Gortat, Frye, and Dudley are all programmed to play off the PG, and he's always been productive in 3PT and STL on a per-minute basis. Kendall Marshall is good and a good fit but he won't be taking his playing time.

I'm taking Lawson anywhere I can get him. They shed Al Harrington's usage and added Iguodala's, so the defense is better, the tempo is raised, and the improvement in total AST% is dramatic. I do tend to put Jrue's troubles on Collins and his system, not on Iggy.

Casey loves Lowry and will play him ahead of Calderon, plain and simple. Lowry has never played 36 minutes in his career - he only played 32 last season - so I'm not sure where that number is coming from.

baby durant (1 posts)  9/2/2012 9:30 AM

hi buse.. I just want to have your opinion. I kinda confuse who to get on my first round 7th pick roto 9 cats 12 teams. I know dwill and westbrook would be number 5 and 6 and wade, josh smith,bynum and aljeff would fall on me. Who do you think is the right pick on 7th considering wade(injury and would probably sit more games),bynum(injury risk),josh( no jj but ft and fg% hurts) while aljeff(favors will limit his minutes?). thank you

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  9/2/2012 10:07 AM

Picks 5-10 are a free for all this year. This is why u want a top 4 pick or a lastish type pick. U answered ur own question. If u feel LMA, Bynum, AlJeff, Josh Smith, Wade are all worthy of the 7th pick then the answer is NONE of them is worthy of the pick. Why pick a guy at 7 when the guy picking 12 will get at least one of the picks? personally I would rate them Wade, Bynum, LMA, ALJeff, Pau, Josh. If u had Wade last year I might pass on him though. U could do plan B and take josh Smith at 7 then grab D12 with ur second round pick.

dcdoorknob (206 posts)  9/2/2012 1:05 PM

Matt, one thing it seems like you were coming dangerously close to saying somewhere up there (a quote function for the forums would be nice )is that one should just treat all 9-cat h2h leagues like they are really just 8-cat leauges (no TOs), which is just something I flat out disagree with.

3 counter-points:

1)This argument:  "TO should largely be assumed to be a function of total games played within a matchup." could easlily be said about a number of categories.  Is this really less true for, say, steals than for TOs?  Should we ignore steals and act like it's 7-cat?  I'd actually be curious if there is really a statistical argument that could support your original statement, but without having seen one I'm going to remain very skeptical of this line of thought.

2) In competitive leagues it becomes much easier to win TOs more often than not when other quality managers choose to ignore the category altogether, which is of course quite common.

3) You don't actually have to be, say, top 3 in the league in fewest TOs.  Assuming you have a playoff caliber team, all you really have to do is come in with fewer TOs than those other playoff teams.  This will again often be quite doable given that these teams TOs will tend to be higher (especially if those owners chose to ignore them), and when we're talking about going against other good teams in h2h, obviously every cat (even TOs) could potentially be the crucial one.

All that said, I of course think tanking TOs in h2h is a perfectly viable strategy in the right situation.  What I disagree with is the sentiment that all h2h leagues should just be treated like they are 8-cat (unless they actually are, obv ).

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/2/2012 3:13 PM

Not only did I not say that you don't ignore TO completely and treat everything like 8cat, but I specifically said it wasn't the case. You are actively looking to win TO if you punt AST or PTS, and extrememly high- or low-TO options (relative to production) should always be accounted for. Perhaps a better way to say what I said above: my 9cat h2h prep involves looking at 9cat and 8cat rankings in lockstep, where I end up finding and treating most players as "average" in the category. The stats argument is that the standard devations are lower for TO for the group of rosterable players that remains when the outliers are removed, relative to cats like threes, boards, assists, and blocks.

Steals is actually an interesting stat to bring up because there are a lot of "average" options, as well. Think about a typical player once the elites are off the board. Of course, the extremely low contributions have to be accounted for, as well, because they also sway a matchup. But in general, a matchup between two teams that are full of "average" contributors in steals are going to be tight, and games played is going to play a factor in the win. Also like TO, steals are not as closely tied to positions, but more to specific players (unlike threes, boards, assists, and blocks). I do not believe that any other category approaches the same "function of games played" territory as TO.

And as for playoffs, you are assessing every category for every matchup, so TO is much a part of that as anything else.

(PS. I had a longer response typed up but lost it because my session timed out. What you see above is a synopsis.)

dcdoorknob (206 posts)  9/2/2012 10:16 PM

I guess I'm still a bit confused.  You say you do need to account for outliers in  TO rates in h2h, but then you also say earlier that AlJeff gets docked in h2h, because of his freakishly low TO rate.  How are you accounting for that outlying TO rate if you're still docking him for h2h?  

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/3/2012 3:42 PM

You know, this is something that I've recently taken to espousing, and I see the error of my ways now that you are having me hash things out. You are right - if Al Jeff is helping you win TO, why would I dock him for it? For some reason, that being nonsensical just never really dawned on me. You can forget what I said earlier. I'm not sure how I arrived at that opinion, but for some reason it all sounded very logical to me at the time.

dasein (606 posts)  9/3/2012 6:49 PM

Perhaps you meant that the community is currently docking Big Al in H2H because they tend to ignore TO, rather than this is what should be done? 

What the community does and what "should" be done are not always the same thing. 

So-Tex (242 posts)  9/4/2012 6:30 AM

This...

What the community does and what "should" be done are not always the same thing. 

...and this little quote I have hanging by my desk...

"Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups"

...pretty much sum that up!

mrfuentes27 (20 posts)  9/4/2012 12:45 PM

I would take Westbrook in top 6, if punting TOs, RW is well rounded and hurts you knowhere (TO should be disregarded when talking first round anyway because these guys play major minutes and always have the ball)

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/4/2012 2:11 PM

Updated. I removed the two oldest resources and added two new (one mock, one rankings set), so you should notice a reasonable amount of player movement.

Link: http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

# 16375 (1 posts)  9/4/2012 9:48 PM

Thanks Matt for your earlier reply to my questions about Ty Lawson, Dragic etc.

Very much appreciated.

Just one more for you....

My feeling is that Ersan Illyasova is an absolute steal in the late 4/5th (as per current ADP).

This dude was BBM rank 9 in the last 2 months with just 30mpg, and was still worth late 4th round on the year (his current ADP) with just 27-28mpg.

Minimal competition on such a poor team, and almost guaranteed 30mpg I would have thought (although we all know the Scott Skiles type of rotations and havoc he can have on productivity).

As such I think I would target my boy EI in the late 3rd/early 4th and get a guy who almost gives a 3 per game, great %'s and does not hurt you anywhere.

Seems a very likely candidate to be closer to his last 2months numbers than his for the year numbers (which still justify his current ADP and to me seem to represent his worst case and not close to his ceiling). 

He reminds me of Kevin Love where we were all saying with increased minutes he would be a beast (and then he was rated as say a 4th round pick with huge upside), and he blew up. I remember the guy in our draft "reaching" for him late 2nd round and everyone let out a sigh, indicating they wanted him but thought it was a round too early. In the end he ended up with first round value.

I am not saying Ersan is going to be the next Love, but think the first round potential is a legit chance, and a 3rd round choice to lock him up might be a good move.

Any thoughts??

KleRoi (6 posts)  9/4/2012 10:10 PM

Ilyasova COULD re-blow up (we can safely say he blew up last year already), but I'm worried about his competition that is nowhere "minimal" as you think... Drew Gooden played really good last year and John Henson looked even better in the summer league, those two could chop up his minutes. Plus Mbah a Moute and Tobias Harris can play some PF but these are minor concerns. I would love to see Ilyasova play major minutes but Skiles never showed much Love for him, not even last year when, as we said, he was playing GREAT. All in all I think 3rd round could be a reach, especially because it looks like you could get someone like Eric Gordon there. By the way I'm targeting him in every possible draft, I'm a 100% that his injury was overblown and exaggerated last year in order for the Hornets to tank more. I think he could safely be a 2nd round value by the end of the year.

Cap. (518 posts)  9/4/2012 10:51 PM

Agree on Ilyasova, that he could be the next big thing, but, I'm not willing to pay such a premium price to get him.  He has shown flashes before and thne disappeared, so until I see it from him consistently for an entire season I'm not ready to call him a 3rd rounder or an absolute steal in the 4th.  He's got a very attractive skillset, but he's not a sure thing just because he had a string of good games on a depleted Bucks team last year.  I'm sure he'll prove me wrong, but I probably won't end up with him on any of my teams just because of his asking price.

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/5/2012 1:57 AM

Ilyasova is 55th on the latest ADP sheet and has been going in a very consistent spot - his earliest pick was 49th overall. I like him plenty in that area, no doubt, but probably wouldn't push him 12+ picks higher myself. I don't see the Love upside, and I'd call it very unlikely that he does get true starter's minutes. But if anyone was a benefactor of a depleted Bucks' roster, it was Gooden, and the major differences between the two is EI's efficiency and lesser usage need, which plays well alongside Jennings/Monta. They re-signed EI to play him and I expect them to do so. He'll be the clear mpg leader among Bucks bigs, with Dalembert/Udoh/Gooden trailing.

fantasy65 (8 posts)  9/6/2012 2:47 AM

Who are some sleepers this year that we should target?

foilfence-bbm (2 posts)  9/6/2012 3:30 AM

Wow So-Tex is a big name now (kidding). Don't let that get to your head buddy. XD

So-Tex (242 posts)  9/6/2012 12:21 PM

Pffffff...nah...that won't get to my head, no worries there...

...still...I haven't been able to leave the house for the past three days...everytime I try to walk out the door, my ears keep getting stuck in the doorjamb...

...strange...

power101 (327 posts)  9/12/2012 1:45 PM

Love the ADP lists! Find them to be the most useful tool out their in draft prep.

NCSU86 (51 posts)  9/13/2012 2:39 PM

Am I reading htis correctly, that people are draftng Steph Curry at 21 when Y has him at 42?

And Lowry at 22 instead of Y's 33?

dasein (606 posts)  9/13/2012 3:06 PM

@ philpitch. Guys that take this fantasyball stuff seriously don't give a rat's ass for Y's rankings. 

So-Tex (242 posts)  9/13/2012 4:23 PM

@ philpitch. Guys that take this fantasyball stuff seriously don't give a rat's ass for Y's rankings. 

And that's the nice way of putting it!

NCSU86 (51 posts)  9/13/2012 5:27 PM

I agree, just surprised there is such a difference, especially with Curry. If healthy, he's potentially a top 10 guy, but ankle injuries, which he now supposedly is free of, push him to 42 at Y?

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/14/2012 7:14 AM

Updated to include Yahoo! O-ranks (for Y! top 250 and any other previously drafted players). I also did a once-through to make sure all positions are correct (synced with Y!). Update also includes further results from a couple of drafts in progress.

http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/23/2012 11:35 PM

Updated to include results from two more drafts

http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

thurr5555 (2 posts)  9/27/2012 2:40 PM

Matt,

Your point that TOs can be partially disregarded compared to other stats is a good one, no need to go back on it.  The reason being that TOs are the only negative counting stat and therefore correlate negatively instead of positively with games played. So if you have a great REB team during a week where you have less games played (due to schedule or injuries) you suddenly have an average REB team. However, if you have a great TO team and the same thing happens, you now have an unecessarily good TO team which is just wasted production.

The same could be said in reverse: great REB team during a week with more games played is wasted stats, but there is no "reverse injury" and therefore games played skews downwards. Assuming same player "value", high turnovers protect against injuries and reduce team risk.

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/28/2012 12:14 AM

Latest update adds ESPN default draft pre-ranks - for which 8-cat is assumed - and further mock/draft results

http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

amsid (33 posts)  9/28/2012 10:44 PM

Thanks for the spreadsheet, Matt!

Bortseb (43 posts)  9/30/2012 1:53 PM

What mocks are these ADPs based on?

mbuser (4316 posts)  9/30/2012 1:56 PM

Mocks we've organized on this site, as well as a few other drafts elsewhere that I've tracked.

herseyhawkins (59 posts)  9/30/2012 10:17 PM

Are these 8cat mocks or 9cat mocks?

dasein (606 posts)  9/30/2012 10:25 PM

std 9-cat.

8-cat is for babies. 

So-Tex (242 posts)  10/1/2012 1:06 AM

  Are these 8cat mocks or 9cat mocks?

  Standard 9-cat...8-cat is for babies!

  But Calvin...you're only six-years-old...so technically, you are a baby!

  Shut up Hobbes! No one asked you! Stupid tiger!

  Spikey!

  Bengal-wanna-be!

  Thumb sucker!

  Why you little #?!%!!!

  Hold on guys, there's no need to fight. Why don't you two sit down, have a nice cool glass of milk, eat a couple of cookies...

  DID SOMEONE SAY COOOOKEEEE?!?

  Uh...well...no Cookie Monster...I was just mentioning to Calvin and Hobbes that they should just calm down, relax, and have some milk and cookies.

  UMMMMMMMMM...ME LIKE COOKEES! CAN ME HAVE SOME?

  Uhhhhhh...well...I don't...I don't really HAVE any cookies with me. I was just suggesting to Cal...

  MAN! THESE COOKIES ARE FREAKING AWESOME!

  I concur!

  Guys, you really aren't helping things any...

  COOOKEES, COOOKEES, COOOKEES!!!

  Ok, look Cookie Monster! I HAVE NO COOKIES! Calvin and Hobbes are just being...they're just being...

  Yeeeeeeeees...

  They're just being CALVIN AND HOBBES!

  I concur!

  So there AREN'T any cookies! Besides...we weren't talking about cookies here in the first place! We were talking about 8-cat and 9-cat fantasy basketball.

  BUT, LITTLE BOY FROM CHARLIE BROWN..."C" NOT FOR FANTASY OR BASKETBALL! "C" IS FOR COOOKEEE!!! AAAAAAAAAMMM, NUM, NUM, NUM!!!

  Hopeless...completely hopeless...

  I concur!

  What's THAT supposed to mean?!? "I concur, I concur, I concur!" Think you're all smart and all...

  Well...at least I don't SUCK MY THUMB!

  THAT'S IT! TIGER GETS A BUTT-KICKING...NOW!!!

  ...sigh...It's times like this that make me wish I could just sit and wait for the Great Pumpkin all year long...

  Hey, that's nothing buddy! At least YOU don't have to deal with some dude in a yellow hat, running after YOU all day long!

Bortseb (43 posts)  10/3/2012 3:00 AM

Are H2H mocks still very relavent for people playing ROTO? I would assume so, but where are the faults in using this logic?

Will this data be made available in the draft tracker? If so, it would be nice to see a "difference" column comparing ther ranks to ours.

dcdoorknob (206 posts)  10/3/2012 8:07 AM

So Tex,

I have no idea where that came from, but it was sure entertaining.  

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/3/2012 11:40 AM

@Bortsep - The ADP list is relavent for all managers, despite the tilt towards h2h drafts. The only two notable players with a dramatic shift in draft position based solely on settings are Howard and Griffin. Otherwise, the stdev that is established tends to be based on those in the draft room and not the settings.

As for adding a difference column, you don't see that taking up unnecessary space when you can just eyeball it?

Bortseb (43 posts)  10/3/2012 11:48 AM

@mbuser Personally my monitors are large, so an extra colum or two wont hurt :P

I agree its easy to eyeball. But there are other benfits that would come from having a dedicated column. One is that it is sortable, and this difference column would be a great way to gage over-hyped/under-hyped(sleeper) picks. It could also be conditionally formated just like the value categories so that at a glance you can see bright green or bright red cells. No need to eyeball and do math a million times, it would just always be there.

Bortseb (43 posts)  10/3/2012 11:54 AM

I've never played H2H to really understand why Howard and Griffin have different value compare to ROTO, but I don't have time right now to brainstorm the answer myself.

Are there any good ROTO mock drafts I can get data from?

I'm assuming your ADP data is from mocks with all quality GMs.

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/3/2012 12:08 PM

Pretty simple explanation, actually. FT% is a true category killer for both Howard and Griffin, which weighs them down in roto. Ignore that category for h2h, and their total value climbs substantially. This only applies in the categories where 0.0 is not the worst you can do, so FG%, FT%, and TO, and to players with dramatic strength and weakness (bright green and bright red for those z-scores). Asik is someone who this should apply for down further the draft list, because his FT% impact will likely be third-worst, behind Howard and Griffin.

An equivalent would be someone like Westbrook maintaining his same line but averaging something like 8 turnovers - he'd take a huge hit in roto for truly tanking that category by himself but would still be top-6 if you simply can ignore his TO no matter how high they go.

For some individual roto drafts, check the cafe draft room. Here's results from one draft we conducted on this site, found in the "Mock Drafts" forum.

Bortseb (43 posts)  10/3/2012 12:23 PM

Thanks for the reply and the resources. I didn't realize that H2H doesn't use the % cat.s, hence my confusion.

What are your thoughts on my post just before last, about the ADP/ESPN difference column.

Hailfire4 (510 posts)  10/3/2012 12:54 PM

HTH does use percentages. The 9 categories in Roto and HTH is the same. The difference is the scoring. Roto scores once a year for all 9 cats 12 for best 1 for lowest. Plus u are ranked against all 11 teams for the entire year. Also u have 82 game limits for each position. HTH is u are going against 1 guy a week in each of the 9 cats. That score is then "banked" then u go against ur next 1 week opponent. There are no games limits or max so u can cut ur scrubbiest guy for a scrubby guy who plays more games in any given scoring cycle. The playoffs are a huge difference. HTH the goal is to make the playoffs just by being a top 6 team. the top 2 teams get byes and from then on it is win or the season is over.

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/3/2012 12:56 PM

You aren't reading that right. You can choose to punt a category in h2h and then ignore one of the % categories - h2h uses the same categories. Player values can move a lot based on differing h2h team strategies. Don't count on a difference column..

-----------------------

Pretty substantial update to the sheet today, with results from four more drafts going in: http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

So-Tex (242 posts)  10/3/2012 1:26 PM

   I didn't realize that H2H doesn't use the % cat.s, hence my confusion.

It's not that h2h doesn't use those cats, it's that at certain times, with certain players, it's a viable strategy to ignore a cat or two (what we mostly refer to as "punting", although I truly believe "punting" and "ignoring" have their differences in h2h, which is a debate for another thread). With Howard/Griffin, the obvious catagory choice to "punt" or "ignore" just happens to be FT%.

Remember, the objective in roto is to get the highest number of points in each category over the course of the season. In h2h however, the objective is to win every weekly matchup by a score of 5 catagories to 4, at the very least. Now, if you're used to playing roto, it IS conceivable, though highly unlikely, that you could draft a solid 9-cat team across the board (balanced), and win your weekly matchups 9 cats to 0. But, more often than not, a roto minded team would lose a matchup with another squad who went nuts drafting guys who got some combination of massive counting stats with huge %'s, or even very little TOs.

If you've got a balanced team, and you're squaring up against a squad with Howard, Griffin, Iguodala, and Rondo (the "dream team" of the Dwight Howard build, punting FT%), there's a good chance you won't come close to winning REBs, BLKs and FG%. And depending on the complimentary players on that manager's roster, you might not win ASTs and STLs either. So even though your team would be well balanced and a strong contender in a roto league, you might lose your h2h matchup with that manager, 5 to 4. And most of the time, with the exception of a small minority of h2h leagues which don't use a playoff system, losing the weekly matchup means you don't get to the playoffs, and you don't get a chance at winning the championship.

It's understandable if you've never played h2h, that it can get a bit confusing. Especially if you try it out for the first time against a group of novice managers, in which case it would be possible to still draft a "roto-centric" team (balanced overall), and still win your weekly matchups.

But more often than not, against guys who have played h2h quite a bit, you'll find certain players going off the board sooner, and certain teams building up on certain cats as they go along. And before you know it, they have the edge to winning the majority of the 9 catagories in any given week.

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/3/2012 2:45 PM

Main difference simplified:

In H2H, you can win your league by scoring the equivalent of 12 points each in 5 categories and 1 point each in 4 categories.

In Roto, that would never work.

Because of this fundamental difference, you can employ different strategies in H2H than in Roto, which therefore gives different values for different players. 

Bortseb (43 posts)  10/5/2012 4:33 PM

Ok, thanks!

This makes sense now. It is far more common in H2H to design your team to focus on certain categories, so it doesn't hurt you as much to draft specialists such as Dwight etc. Therefore, you will find them higher up in H2H mocks, compared to ROTO ones where it is more typical for players to be valued more for being generally well rounded.

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/14/2012 12:00 PM

Updated

http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

bruin99 (201 posts)  10/14/2012 12:03 PM

Any chance we can get the H2H and Roto drafts separated at some point?  Would be appreciated.

Emin Cem (1 posts)  10/18/2012 3:22 AM

I wonder new rank of Kevin Love after him injury. Meanwhile I think Westbrook, Lowry, Gallinari, Kidd-Gilchrist, McGee and Bass are overranked, Cousins, Lee, Bosh, Stuckey, G.Davis and Hickson are underranked.

Thanks for all information, this draft sheet is very valuable and helpful.

bennyc2362 (2 posts)  10/18/2012 11:21 AM

Thanks for this - very helpful.

I see you have Anthony Davis well below both ESPN and Yahoo - what do you think is a reasonable projection for him this year?

eastbayglorious (2 posts)  10/18/2012 1:09 PM

Hey Matt, the most difficult player for me to peg is Anthony Davis. I think the minutes will be there, in a variety of forms. somewhere in the high 20s. I think he could conservatively average a steal and a couple blocks. Pair that with maybe a conservative 10 and 7, you've gotta be looking at a top 50, even 40 player in roto. And yet I hold the first pick (49) in a 13 year running keeper league, and I'm nervous to take him up against the likes of Dragic, Monroe and David Lee.

What's your take on Davis this year? And which player would you keep among the four? 

Thanks for being a go-to read during the season. 

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/19/2012 4:49 PM

Keeper league, you take him and it's not a question. As for re-draft leagues, he's 36 on the top players board.

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/23/2012 3:38 PM

Okay, one final update here: http://bit.ly/Ok8oEa

The ADP is now a mash-up of mock drafts, real drafts, and rankings lists that I've vetted from around the internet. Enjoy!

redhopeful (89 posts)  10/23/2012 6:06 PM

Question that I've always wanted to ask you Matt: has the ADP list ever influenced you to change your projections and thus rankings?

In the most likely scenario, I would assume seldom - perhaps for a player or two that you didn't research as in depth as others.

mbuser (4316 posts)  10/23/2012 7:03 PM

I was ramping up my own research/rankings when I starting mocking and compiling this list, so at the time the drafts and results were certainly an influence. Not so much lately, though

JulioIP (1 posts)  10/23/2012 9:42 PM

Hi, was drafting with the tracker.. and was involve in the middle of a crime ;.)

Who is responsible for the abduction of Omer Asik from the database?

A call from rockets ... they arent really concern of his lost, if they can drop his salary...