bruin99 (201 posts)  9/17/2012 1:00 PM

Ok I get that Buser is high on Iggy with the Nuggets, but here is my concern.  Quite a few people are saying that Jrue @ Philly was held back because Iggy was the one initiating the offense as evidenced by the fact Iggy had more assists than Jrue.  If Iggy held back Jrue's assists, what's going to happen when Iggy and Lawson are in the same backcourt?  Iggy's value is quite dependent on his assist totals, both Iggy and Lawson need the ball to go through them to initiate the offense and be valuable in a fantasy setting.  So do Iggy's assists suffer, Lawson's assists suffer, Iggy going to return to his days of scoring 18+ points, or will they figure out a way to share the ball and initiate the offense enough each that they maintain their value?

I understand that Denver is the fastest pace offense in the league, but I'm just concerned how the two of them will play off each other.

power101 (327 posts)  9/17/2012 1:26 PM

I am high on those two...but you have given some food for thought there with that point.

biggamejames (7 posts)  9/17/2012 2:44 PM

Exactly my concern. I have to choose a keeper from Lawson, Rondo, and Curry (to match with Lebron). I like Lawson and I hear the hype but I'm not convinced he's a sure thing with Iggy. Andre Miller is still there too.

dasein (625 posts)  9/17/2012 3:32 PM

I don't believe that "Iggy on team" = "drop in usage for team's PG" 

Philly were bottom 3 in pace from memory last year, so there's that. There just wern't as many possessions to go around. 

Also, that Jrue's numbers were disapointing last year had a lot to do with Jrue being dissapointing last year. Can't blame it all on Iggy.

I expect the Nugs to run and run and run, and Ty will have the keys. Iggy should be something of a poor man's Marion from the Phoenix days- an all around stat stuffer. 

Melo (21 posts)  9/17/2012 8:52 PM

Iguodala's USG% was lower than Afflalo's last season.

Da Ruhl (174 posts)  9/17/2012 9:27 PM

I agree with OP to an extent but I think a drop in AST may be offset by higher pace leading to better other stats as well as the drop in AST leading to a drop in TO...

-DR

ak murthy (196 posts)  9/18/2012 6:31 AM

If Lawson can put up those ast numbers beside Andre Miller I don't think Lawson will be hurt by Iguodala in the mix. If anything, I think Iguodala's presence hurts Lawson's scoring opportunities, but not significantly.

DaCommish (62 posts)  9/18/2012 10:40 AM

I think an increase in pace + usage (Iggy had a lower usage then Afflalo!! ) will lead to an uptick in points, treys, rebounds, steals and also turnovers. I do see slightly less assists because of Lawson/Miller but he should still be able to average 4.5 to 5 assists per game at the bare minimum.

Last year he also had a career worse in FT at .617 and his career FT is .737 so only way to go is up. I also think his FG will increase slightly up as Iggy would be featured more in the transition game. I think this is the year Iggy could crack top 25. 

All aboard the Koolaid Train! 

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/18/2012 12:11 PM

Usage rates and AST% from 11-12 (and career):

USAGE
Holiday 21.8 (20.5)
Lawson 21.2 (19.8)
Afflalo 19.1 (15.6)
Iguodala 17.7 (19.6)

AST%
Lawson 30.2 (28.0)
Iguodala 23.7 (20.8)
Holiday 21.6 (25.5)
Afflalo 11.1 (9.5)

So you are trading what we'll just call similar usage (Afflalo/Iggy) for a much higher AST%, which isn't going to hurt anyone. Iguodala's defensive metrics dwarf Afflalo's, as well, which lead to more transition possessions. And the real kicker here: Al Harrington is gone. He led DEN with a 24.4 usage last season, along with a measly 8.2 AST%, so removing him from the equation frees up usage for the arriving Iguodala (as well as the incumbent Lawson).

HYEPWRD (13 posts)  9/18/2012 9:48 PM

Forget the numbers...this team was downright scary in transiton last year. now they add yet another high transition guy. The problem might be 3 guys fighting each other for the ball to dunk in transition. Many of Iggys tough shots as the shot clock is winding down will be replaced with layups. Anytime he pulls down a def Reb---hes gonna look up and see faried up the floor with 3 steps on his man--for an easy assist. This style and the personel of this team really suit Iggys game. As a fan--to me---the most exciting team to watch last year got far more exciting. It was obvious that Affalo was one guy on the Nuggets that thought far more of his abilites than he actually had.

thebarnes (37 posts)  9/20/2012 12:13 AM

I am not sure about Iggy and am on the fence but aside from the useage/assists /co-existing with a point guard stuff I would propose that the other concern is the rotation. Sure you can say iggy gets afflalos minutes but he got those minutes last season with no Chandler and very little Gallinari in second half of season – that’s why he got those minutes. Hamilton was always a DNP too.

This season you have a healthy Chandler who could play any one of the 2/3/4 positions on any night, Gallinari completely healthy who is a natural 3, Jordan Hamilton who the  nuggets have said are committed to and HAVE to give minutes to develop even if only a few and hes a 2/3 and in order to give andre miller enough minutes so he didn’t refuse to play he played in the backcourt WITH lawson plenty (eerily similar to the situation of evan turner/holida/iggy faced trying in vein to co-exist).

The above rotations are just what WE KNOW. Theres unknowns too like will corey brewer get more consistent minutes at the 2/3? And how good is the rookie Fournier because as much as he was a reported Euro stash both he and the Nuggets worked quick to get him in the league immediately so you would have to think he gets SOME minutes.

Put all this together and whilst it’s not for certain, there is definite cause for concern on how all these guys will fit into a rotation that works for iggy and gives him big minutes. I wouldn’t draft him where he will probably go just because of the risk reward.

thebarnes (37 posts)  9/20/2012 12:18 AM

Also I didnt even include Quincy Miller who may or may not get minutes and hes not an NBA 4, hes a 3 right now. Thats 8 guys who COULD see time at the 2/3 and at least 4/5 that WILL.

biggamejames (7 posts)  9/20/2012 1:03 AM

Faster pace might also mean fewer minutes to keep legs fresh. I see Iggy getting better value than Philly but with more points, better % (hopefully for FT too), and slightly fewer assists. Lawson's scoring will probably increase too with Harrington gone and Iggy here but I don't think his assists will increase as much as his points, if at all. The team is stacked so they might limit each other just a bit or rotate big games.

power101 (327 posts)  9/20/2012 10:46 AM

Argh.... i want to be strong in FT this year. why iggy why do you have to be crappy in fts!

DaCommish (62 posts)  9/23/2012 4:23 PM

Iggy had a career worse in FT last year with .617

His career FT% is .737 and only dipped below .700 twice- both in last two years (.693 and .617).

Do you think he'll reach at least .700 in Denver? I don't see how he will shoot .656 as listed in his current projections.

dasein (625 posts)  9/23/2012 4:37 PM

@ DaCommish

.656 is the average of .693 and .617. I'd say taking the avg of the last two years is fair. 

DaCommish (62 posts)  9/23/2012 5:04 PM

@ dasein

I'd rather the 3y average of .695 

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/23/2012 5:18 PM

He was a reasonably consistent 62% last year, as well, which doesn't bode well for a significant climb.

Melo (21 posts)  9/24/2012 7:37 AM

As a Nuggets fan, I didn't want to make a new topic since I didn't think it is worthy but here's my feedback on Denver's projections:

- 30 mpg to 28 mpg for McGee, maybe even down to 26-27 since he has asthma and isn't able to play significant minutes in a fast paced system and with altitude.

- Denver has no back up centers in the projections, meaning one of Mozgov and Koufos should get 10-15 mpg off the bench. It's hard to figure out who will be the backup, Koufos got the minutes towards the second half of the regular seaon, but Mozgov ended up starting for Denver in the playoffs. I'm leaning towards Koufos.

- Do not see Anthony Randolph being in the rotation at all, and 22 mpg is big stretch if he is. Wilson Chandler is Denver's backup PF.

- I see Jordan Hamilton edging out Corey Brewer as the backup 2/3 since Denver needs three point shooting bad

mbuser (4344 posts)  9/24/2012 1:44 PM

Thanks for the detailed feedback. The projections are assuming (1) McGee makes some progress in all areas, including in dealing with his asthma (2) Mozgov/Koufos play less in the fast-paced system (3) Ant.Rand ends up with minutes as the backup center as a result of (2). And unless Faried plays a lot more, there are plenty in play at the 2-4 for Chandler. That said, Mozgov is at 12 minutes, which meets the 10-15 criteria you spoke of. And Hamilton looked great in summer league, no doubt - I certainly wouldn't be surprised if you are right, with Iggy's defense now in the mix, so we'll keep an eye on it in camp.

drdoom (37 posts)  12/9/2012 7:20 PM

its been a while since iguodala's been talked about. aside from his terrible recent bout of games, what do you think about his season so far? disappointing at best?

mbuser (4344 posts)  12/9/2012 8:22 PM

Wildly inconsistent game log. Everything is at least a tick below where we'd like it to be, and then the STL and TO are a big departure. The STL and AST have come up a bit lately, so of course his own offense has tanked. I'm not bailing yet - I think he'll improve as he gets more used to the freedom of the system and to the players around him, but the numbers are definitely a downer to this point.

Songlo11 (53 posts)  12/28/2012 6:15 PM

With the Nuggets playing the next 15 of their 18 games at home, would this be a good time to trade for Iggy since he is statistically better at home than on the road?

twilo28 (212 posts)  12/28/2012 11:43 PM

I wouldn't really care about the home/road splits  but I think Iguodala is solid "buy-low" candidate. A lot of people are willing to let go of him and he is seemingly starting to find his groove.  

mbuser (4344 posts)  12/29/2012 1:27 AM

More good games than bad lately, I'm not sure how much of a buy low window still exists, but it's worth finding out. And agreed that it has less to do with his playing lots of home games over the next month than simply having talent/situation to really turn things around.