DFS 4/11 Wednesday

April 11, 2018 by Greg EhrenbergView Comments (89)

Twitter: @gehrenbergdfs

Foul Balls Podcast: iTunes SoundCloud

Figuring out playing time tonight is fun

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves - 8:00 pm

DEN

This is the most significant game of the regular season. The winner makes the playoffs. Gary Harris returned last game, but played just 18 minutes, so it is unknown how much he will be allowed to play. He is underpriced if playing regular minutes. The best options here are Murray and Jokic although Jokic is a bit pricey on Fanduel.

Cash Plays

Jokic (Draftkings)
Murray

GPP Plays

Jokic
Murray

MIN

For a game of this magnitude, I think Jimmy Butler is going to play his normal minutes. He played just 22 and 23 minutes in his first couple games back from the knee injury, but I expect Thibs to run him into the ground tonight. Gibson is questionable to play, but I would be shocked to see him miss tonight.

Cash Plays

Butler

GPP Plays

Butler
Towns

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers - 8:00 pm

MIL

Giannis is playing despite being listed as questionable, but this is a game that the Bucks might prefer to lose. A win guarantees them the three seed, while a loss could potentially drop them to the seven seed, which would mean a matchup against the Celtics in the first round. A win means they play against either the Cavs or the 76ers, which are tougher spots. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the minutes for the Bucks starters get limited a bit.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

PHI

Philly clinches the three seed in the East with a win or a Cavs loss. Saric got hurt on the first play of last night’s game, which opened up extra playing time for Ersan. He likely will draw the start if Saric is ruled out.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls - 8:00 pm

DET

Moreland is way priced up on Fanduel with Griffin and Drummond both out. He is still a top value play on Draftkings. Reggie Jackson should carry a ton of usage tonight when he’s on the court with the Pistons’ stars unavailable.

Cash Plays

Jackson
Moreland (Draftkings)
Kennard (Draftkings)

GPP Plays

Jackson
Moreland
Kennard
Johnson

CHI

Nobody for Chicago is guaranteed to play many minutes and nobody is super cheap either. I think they can be avoided with the expectation for just about the entire roster to play around 25 minutes.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans - 8:00 pm

SAS

This is another game with seeding implications for both teams. The only stable production from the Spurs has come from Aldridge this year. He is too expensive for me on Draftkings, but he’s a very strong play on Fanduel where he is much cheaper.

Cash Plays

Aldridge (Fanduel)

GPP Plays

Aldridge (Fanduel)
Gasol

NOR

This is a tough matchup for the Pels, but it is hard to ignore the production of Mirotic since moving into the starting lineup. He has scored at least 50 DK points in three consecutive games. Davis is a fine target to payup for tonight especially since I don’t think most of the expensive options play all four quarters tonight.

Cash Plays

Davis
Mirotic

GPP Plays

Davis
Mirotic

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers - 8:00 pm

NYK

Hardaway, Mudiay and Kanter are out again, while Courtney Lee is now questionable for tonight’s game. This should mean a ton of playing time for Ntilikina, who played 40 minutes in a similar situation against the Cavs on Monday. I am figuring all the Knicks guys to see similar playing time to wha they had on Monday.

Cash Plays

Burke
Ntilikina
O’Quinn

GPP Plays

Burke
Ntilikina
O’Quinn
Beasley

CLE

The Cavs need a win and a Sixers loss to move up to the three seed. While this makes it seem like we should see the Cleveland starters all game, the Knicks are playing a weaker than normal lineup and the Cavs are favored by 14.5 points. If this gets out of hand and the Sixers games is already settled then I think there is a good chance that we don’t see Lebron at the end of the game.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

James
Love
Green

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder - 8:00 pm

MEM

Memphis still is sitting basically their entire team, so even with blowout risk, there aren’t many guys to play minutes tonight. There is a lot of minutes security in rostering Grizzlies players and they have relatively high floors.

Cash Plays

MarShon Brooks
Dillon Brooks
McLemore
Rabb

GPP Plays

MarShon Brooks
Dillon Brooks
McLemore
Rabb

OKC

They are playing for seeding, but as 16.5 point favorites I think the most likely scenario is the OKC starters sitting out the fourth quarter. The core guys are usable, but I think just for GPP due to the risk of blowout. There is a narrative that Westbrook can average a triple double if he collects 16 rebounds tonight, but I don’t think the Thunder would risk injury to leave him during a blowout right before the playoffs.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Westbrook
George
Adams
Anthony

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic - 8:00 pm

WAS

Wall and Porter are both resting, so it seems like Beal and Morris would play limited minutes tonight even they are active. Oubre and Satoransky are both solid values, who should see plenty of minutes tonight.

Cash Plays

Satoransky
Oubre

GPP Plays

Satoransky
Oubre

ORL

Orlando isn’t resting anybody, but I don’t expect them to play their core guys regular minutes. Even when active the minutes have been restricted for Gordon and Vucevic lately. This makes them a team to fade tonight.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics - 8:00 pm

BKN

Dinwiddie is out tonight, but LeVert is back in the lineup. The Nets remain thin on the the wing, so LeVert could play a significant role tonight. I still think he is just a GPP play in case the Nets limit his playing time.

Cash Plays

Russell
Hollis-Jefferson

GPP Plays

Russell
LeVert
Hollis-Jefferson

BOS

Figuring their playing time for tonight is tricky. Rozier and Horford are both resting and the starters are playing limited minutes in recent games anyway. Monroe puts up big numbers basically whenever he gets extended minutes, which is in the cards for him tonight. Larkin makes for a good value with Boston thin at point guard.

Cash Plays

Larkin

GPP Plays

Larkin
Monroe

Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat - 8:00 pm

TOR

Toronto is playing their starters, but I doubt they see a fun allotment of minutes. This makes the team a fade for me.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

MIA

I think this is one of the more avoidable games on the slate. Miami is spreading minutes thin, which has been an issue whenever they have had a healthy squad this year.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings - 10:30 pm

HOU

We could see rest of limited minutes from the Rockets starters here. One thing we almost definitely aren’t seeing is regular minutes form Harden and Paul. The easiest situation would be they play with limited minutes, so we can confidently fade the Rockets.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

SAC

It is notably that Fanduel decided to leave the late games off the slate, which offers protection from rest and late scratches, which figure to happen. Houston has been giving a ton of minutes to Cauley-Stein and Fox recently and this matchup could be pretty easy if the Rockets end up sitting a bunch of guys.

Cash Plays

Fox
Cauley-Stein

GPP Plays

Fox
Cauley-Stein
Bogdanovich
Hield

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers - 10:30 pm

LAL

Andre Ingram is a great story and he should get some playing time tonight. At min price he has a decent chance to put up a solid game. He can shoot and make threes at a high percentage. Even with the Lakers resting guys, it is tough to figure out if anybody will play significant enough minutes to put up a good line.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Hart
Ingram

LAC

The Clippers have also been spreading their minutes out since they got eliminated from the playoffs. Harrell is okay to roster if we know he’s playing prior to lock, but this is another fade spot if we don’t get an update before 7.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers - 10:30 pm

UTA

This is another game with a lot of importance for seeding, but the issue is that both teams play at a slow pace and are solid defensively. Gobert is fine to roster, but I don't think motivation is going to create extra fantasy points for Utah.

Cash Plays

Gobert

GPP Plays

Gobert

POR

I think Lillard is okay as a GPP play even in a tough matchup because his price is down and he should see a lot of playing time tonight. Lillard is somewhat matchup proof, but the pace is a concern. I wouldn’t consider rostering him if I felt better about the playing time of other stars on the slate.

Cash Plays

Lillard

GPP Plays

Lillard

Final day of the season. Thanks for following along and interacting guys! I appreciate you allowing me to have an audience so I am not just yelling opinions into an empty hallway.

 
2.5h
al3b3d3v
100% (1) UP 
these 3 way games have been a total crap shoot. some i hit some i dont. Lebron is a lock for me on FD. Going to punt with Gortat to fit in Wall and then value cheap plays around those two studs.
4.8h
Keno
100% (1) UP 
4 game slate tonight
23.3h
Aggregate
Not too well - I had a lot of Teague :(. I'm gpp only, so Harden over Westy was the right call though. I also had a lot of rose, but teague really burnt me.
1.1d
al3b3d3v
How did u make out yesterday? All my cash double ups hit but quintuple didn't on fd
1.8d
al3b3d3v
He's a punt on a 2 game slate where I'm stacking that game.if.kat has fouls early maybe he plays 5 and gets value. Lotto pick basically
1.9d
Aggregate
Yeah its been a tough go for me as well. Taj seems super risky even at reduced pricing
1.9d
al3b3d3v
Last few nights are brutal. Hitting 4* is tough. I'm leaning Westbrook for cash a d harden for gpp. But don't blame be if it's reversed. I have both. Shit I'm playing taj Gibson in gpp
1.9d
Aggregate
Harden or Westy on DK? Basically same priced, both really need to win this game coming off of losses.
4.0d
al3b3d3v
nobody comments here any more which is a real shame. feels like once playoff basketball starts this site slows down in its updated and projections. I have a lot of exposure to the jazz/thunder game with Pelicans and simmons for cash
4.1d
agame2323
What the strategy for today's games? I'm thinking Houston vs Minn is the game to stack.
5.9d
bm1234
I'm gonna have a good amount of embiid
6.0d
al3b3d3v
looks like embiid is gonna play, hes probable now. Is he a must play or a tricky fade?
6.1d
Keno
Center is a shit show indeed on FD lmao. I feel like Collins will be the most pop play tonight on there.
6.1d
al3b3d3v
how do we feel about McGee starting tonight ? because that hinges on the core of my lineup. I can risk in GPP and plug him in or for cash I can roll out zach collins. Center is a shit show on fd.
6.9d
al3b3d3v
Let's see it my hunch is right
6.9d
chefcurry
Its hard for the Cavs to blow anyone out with that defense
6.9d
bm1234
I play on DK so I don't know the pricing but assuming they are similar, play Bron for cash, westbrook for GPP...I'm fading harden tonight.
6.9d
al3b3d3v
lebron, harden or westbrook FD. Im leaning to the king in a must win. but.... blowout in ohio may happen. thoughts ?
7.1d
kslight
100% (1) UP 
We've added one.
7.1d
Rojme
is there a whatif for mitchell
7.8d
So-Tex
If anyone is still out there, thoughts on Harkless playing? I can late swap off of Evan Turner...
7.9d
gehrenberg
100% (1) UP 
Derozan
7.9d
al3b3d3v
greg who is your favorite player tonight ? on FD
7.9d
gehrenberg
I don’t think either wright or miles play much tonight
7.9d
al3b3d3v
does vanvleet playing kill that punt value for Delon and CJ Miles ?
7.9d
gehrenberg
I think Brogdon is fairly priced. Turner is okay if Harkless is ruled out. Not many injuries tonight to create value
8.0d
So-Tex
Thanks again Greg!
8.0d
bm1234
turner brogdan value on DK?
8.1d
gehrenberg
There’s only three games with 0 value. It’s fine to roster them together just include some wizards
8.1d
So-Tex
Yahoo,GPP (or FD or DK), would you consider running Lowry and DeRozan in the same lineup or keep them separate?
8.1d
gehrenberg
I think Lowry/Lillard are the best point guards to roster tonight
8.2d
al3b3d3v
Thanks Greg. One more, should I play wall with Lillard or try to use rondo or Lowry with a higher end of tonight
8.2d
gehrenberg
I think Brown
8.2d
al3b3d3v
on Fanduel who is a better play at SG for cash/gpp; Brogdon or Jaylen Brown
10.8d
al3b3d3v
Had that gsw mcgee and iggy green Durant stack with raptors and brow still going
11.1d
Kevo2233
Is McGee confirmed starter?
11.1d
al3b3d3v
100% (1) UP 
McGee starting for gsw, some value there he should hit 5x .
11.1d
Rojme
its the playoffs he will most likely play
11.1d
Keno
Was hoping for some concrete news on Porter before lock but looks like we're not going to get that
11.1d
al3b3d3v
Where should most exposure be any one team or player, any stacks on the early games,?
11.2d
Keno
Center on FD is a nightmare. Who is the safest?
11.6d
Rojme
awesome
11.6d
joshlloyd48
Yeah there is, I just had to update it because it had Jodie Meeks
11.7d
Rojme
Is there a whatif scenario for mike scott
12.7d
gehrenberg
It’s fine to use this thread to talk about playoff games
12.8d
bellsofwar3
Woah that's awesome guys. Didn't know membership extended into the season. Would we be able to use the thread for discussion or is there a site specific one?
13.0d
Rojme
Awesome
13.0d
kslight
100% (2) UP 
Yes, we'll likely do the first two rounds, and your full season membership extends into the playoffs.
13.0d
gehrenberg
Yes there will be
13.0d
Rojme
Will there be playoff projections
13.1d
gehrenberg
100% (1) UP 
Nice hit
13.1d
Aggregate
100% (1) UP 
Thanks for all your help and banter this year Greg! Had a few long slides (tumultuous life of a GPP-only player) this year, but made up my losses (and a bit more) quite nicely taking down the $555 on DK last night. Looking forward to the rest of the BBM team working together for these DFS NBA playoffs :)
13.1d
gehrenberg
https://rotopros.com/articles/5095. Here is a free baseball article I wrote today. If you are looking for baseball content this year you can sign up using the promo code GREG25 for 25% off a subscription. We are also doing live shows where we take customer questions and have a slack chat where people ask me questions similar to the comments section we do here
13.2d
gehrenberg
I won't have articles during the playoffs
13.6d
lamar
Hi greg,will you write article during the playoffs?
13.8d
al3b3d3v
I'm playing late slate FanDuel gpp. Where should I spend up, Lillard and wcs or go balanced and cheap on all value? Gerald green seems like a lock sf. Who else should I target?
13.8d
bellsofwar3
100% (1) UP 
I'll chime in as well. You guys are great and the best I can do for you is word of mouth. Hope you guys grow. I'll be back for sure next year.
13.8d
al3b3d3v
100% (2) UP 
Great dfs season thanks Greg, Matt Ken and Josh. This site has the best tools for it in my opinion
13.9d
gehrenberg
He's usually only plays 14 minutes per game. Limited minutes is relative
13.9d
Aggregate
Larkin is going to have limited minutes from what I hear
13.9d
gehrenberg
I think Larkin is the best, but all those cheap guys should hit value @rsigler
13.9d
gehrenberg
Rhj @blood
13.9d
rsigler65
Which Boston guys do you feel most comfortable playing? Just Larkin and Monroe still? Are the rest of em just shiny objects? Seems like at least one or two should be good value plays.
13.9d
BloodandGold
Markieff Morris or RHJ tonight ? Thanks.
13.9d
gehrenberg
Murray
13.9d
chefcurry
100% (1) UP 
Thanks for all the back and forth this season!
13.9d
Keno
Also, Teague or Murray on FD for cash, G Harris playing full minutes not sure if that affects Murray much.
13.9d
gehrenberg
Mirotic @Keno
13.9d
gehrenberg
I don't think Lebron is playable anymore
13.9d
Keno
Millsap, Mirotic, Moreland, who do you like the most out of these for cash on FD Greg, ( Aldridge my other PF)
13.9d
gehrenberg
It looks like Lebron could be coming out of the game after he scores 10 points
13.9d
gehrenberg
I think he will
13.9d
Jorgo
Confidence level (%) that Butler plays >32 minutes?
13.9d
ericbjohnston
Yes Greg, I’ll need some help with baseball stuff. I won a $444 entry into the MLB enormous tournament on 4/20! I have no clue what I’m doing when it comes to MLB.
13.9d
So-Tex
DAMN! No love for Andre Ingram on Yahoo...not available for any slate tonight. Any precedent for a player being added before a contest starts?
13.9d
ericbjohnston
100% (1) UP 
Yes Greg, I’ll need some help with baseball stuff. I won a $444 entry into the MLB enormous tournament on 4/20! I have no clue what I’m doing when it comes to MLB.
13.9d
mattsize4
100% (1) UP 
Doc said Deandre Jordan would most likely sit one of the last two games and he played last game against the Pels. The Montrezel is questionable. BOBAN
14.0d
jgootzeit
Thanks Greg! I assume there will still be projections for playoffs?
14.0d
gehrenberg
I am writing baseball content at rotopros.com. I will post a promo code tomorrow
14.0d
jimiscoolfrog
100% (1) UP 
I am definitely interested in baseball content.Will be watching for the promo code. I joined later in the season. Wish I would have joined. You guys Rock!
14.0d
bellsofwar3
100% (1) UP 
Thanks Greg. I'm curious about Baseball Monster. I don't have much success but I have an itch to use it. I do use it for fantasy baseball year long so I have interest in that.
14.0d
rishipatel412
100% (1) UP 
Did you guys restart baseballmonster? I thought it shut down for DFS baseball.
14.0d
rishipatel412
100% (1) UP 
Your projections killed it last night. Thank you!
14.0d
gehrenberg
0% (1) UP 
Thanks guys
14.0d
So-Tex
100% (1) UP 
As others have said and will say, thank you for the great insight and content!! And I second bm's wish of playoff NBA DFS...even for just the first round maybe? ;D
14.0d
bm1234
100% (2) UP 
Good job Greg...wish you were doing playoffs nba.
14.0d
gehrenberg
Thanks astraface
14.0d
astraface
100% (2) UP 
Greg, its been an absolute pleasure following along this season.... and a profitable one! Thank you very much as your content became a part of my daily DFS routine this season and I will certainly be back next season.
14.0d
gehrenberg
100% (2) UP 
If anybody is interested in baseball content I will post a promo code here to get money off a subscription for my baseball stuff.