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DFS 11/7 Wednesday (free article)

November 7, 2018 by Greg EhrenbergView Comments (181)

Twitter: @gehrenbergdfs

Foul Balls Podcast: iTunes SoundCloud

Watching Duke last night was the best I have felt as a Knicks' fan in years

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic - 7:00 pm

DET

This is one of two games expected to be played at a slow pace tonight. We also have most of the Pistons’ players priced up due to increased production from their last game, which went to overtime against the Heat. While, I wouldn’t call either Griffin nor Drummond terrible plays, they don’t make it into my player pool because there are targets I prefer in their price range. The potential source of value for Detroit comes if Reggie Bullock is ruled out. Glenn Robinson The Third started in place of Stanley Johnson last game and got a healthy amount of playing time. He should see secure minutes if Bullock is out.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Robinson

ORL

Jonathan Isaac remains out, while Evan Fournier is questionable. Aaron Gordon is a safe play with upside with Isaac out of the lineup. Gordon has put in a couple big games in a row and his playing time is more stable with Isaac injured. If Fournier is out then I expect either Terence Ross or Jonathon Simmons to start in his place. I am hopeful that go to Simmons, who would be an awesome value play.

Cash Plays

Gordon

GPP Plays

Gordon

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers - 7:00 pm

OKC

With Westbrook out, Paul George is going to have to lead the Thunder offense. He sees a 5.2% usage increase without Westbrook on the floor this year. Dennis Schroder also sees a value increase and he will start at point guard. Fanduel priced up Paul George and left Schroder cheap, while Draftkings did the inverse. George is the stronger DK play, while Schroder is a stronger play on Fanduel.

Cash Plays

George
Schroder

GPP Plays

George
Schroder
Adams

CLE

With Larry Drew taking over, he seems to be giving George Hill more playing time. He has played 32 and 28 minutes since Drew took over. Hill is priced up on Fanduel, but he is still very cheap at $4,000 on DK. It’s only two games, so I don’t feel great about him in cash games, but the upside is there as a GPP play if he keeps seeing minutes in the 30 range. I do have a bit of an affinity for Cedi Osman and he has struggled in recent games, but it is hard to ignore that he played 43 minutes last night. It is hard to think he doesn’t have upside if he keeps seeing that much floor time.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Osman
Hill (Draftkings)

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks - 7:30 pm

NYK

Tim Hardaway missed last game, but he is expected to return tonight. This is a positive matchup for the Knicks, but we are left with the issue of having no clue who is going to play minutes for New York. They are exactly what the Kings were last year, but with less talent. Unless there are injuries, I can’t see myself targeting the Knicks much this year. The one guy with a consistent role is Hardaway when healthy.

Cash Plays

Hardaway

GPP Plays

Hardaway

ATL

Taurean Prince missed last nights’ game and we ended up getting a great value game from Kevin Huerter. The tables have turned tonight with Prince expected to play and Huerter ruled out for personal reasons. Prince is priced down a bit, so there is upside for him, but there is some concern his minutes could be limited due to the ankle injury.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Prince

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat - 7:30 pm

SAS

There is opportunity here with both Rudy Gay and Pau Gasol out for San Antonio. I assume we are going to see Davis Bertans start and he is a strong value play if this is the case. Jakob Poeltl could also potentially see more playing time, but he is a deep GPP play if coming off the bench.

Cash Plays

Bertans
Aldridge

GPP Plays

Bertans
Aldridge
Poeltl

MIA

We are going to need an update here. Whiteside has been upgraded to probable, but Dragic has been downgraded to questionable. The return of Whiteside takes the value away from the front court, but the backcourt could see value in guys like McGruder and Tyler Johnson if Dragic is ruled out. Dwayne Wade was ruled out early for personal reasons.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers - 8:00 pm

PHI

As good as Embiid has been recently, I think his price is a bit out of control right now. I don’t think he should be priced at the same level as guys like Lebron and Anthony Davis. Robert Covington is dealing with a bad back, which him questionable to play tonight. Dario Saric has really struggled this year, but he is going to be relied on to play a bigger role if Covington is out.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Simmons (Fanduel)
Saric

IND

I have a moderate amount of interest in Myles Turner as a Fanduel GPP play. His production has been all over the map, but we have limited viable options at the center position tonight. With his price point down, I think we can use him in tournaments and hope this is one of his big nights. There aren’t really any other center I like on Fanduel around his price point and we have to hope he can avoid foul trouble against Embiid.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Turner (Fanduel)

Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans - 8:00 pm

CHI

I really dislike Jabari Parker, but I can’t ignore him at his current price, while playing big minutes. Wendell Carter Jr. continues to put up big game after big game for Chicago and he looks like one of the better players from the this years draft class. His mobility and ability to stretch the floor makes him the prototypical big man in 2018.

Cash Plays

Carter Jr (Draftkings)

GPP Plays

Carter Jr (Draftkings)
Parker

NOR

For tournaments, Anthony Davis is my favorite guy to spend up for. He has an ideal matchup, his price is down and there appears to be a bit of public sentiment against him due to a couple bad games in a row following his elbow injury. He is still a high variant player and there is blowout risk, so for cash I prefer to roster Paul George or Lebron on the high end.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies - 8:00 pm

DEN

Memphis has established itself as one of the top defenses in the league once again. They struggled last year, but the addition of Jaren Jackson and the return of Mike Conley has made them into an elite defense once again. There are better spots to target than Denver tonight.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

MEM

This is by far the lowest total on the slate at 204 points. Denver is playing at a slower pace this year and they are also one of the top defenses at limiting fantasy points. Conley is reasonably priced on Fanduel, so I think he is okay for GPP, but I don’t think this game is worth targeting.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Conley

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz - 9:00 pm

DAL

This is another spot I think we can fade. Dallas is playing on the tail end of a back to back in Utah. Not only is the matchup tough, but there is blowout risk.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

UTA

Donovan Mitchell is probable to play after missing two of the last three games with a hamstring injury and ankle sprain. I think he makes for an interesting GPP play on DK with his price a bit down, but a potentially one sided games leaves him out of cash game consideration for me. Utah could ease his workload a bit.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Mitchell

Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings - 10:00 pm

TOR

Kawhi Leonard is expected to play after missing time with an ankle injury. His return slightly dampers the amount of usage we see for Lowry, but Lowry has played so well that I think he is a safe play for cash games. Ibaka has some crazy streak of like three months without missing a field goal and he should return to the starting lineup for this game if the Raptors keep their big man rotation consistent.

Cash Plays

Lowry
Ibaka

GPP Plays

Lowry
Ibaka

SAC

Surprisingly, not bad. Sacramento is off to a good start this year and Bogdanovich is close to returning. It is unknown how he will impact the rotation, but it seems Fox and Hield should have safe playing time. The Raptors have been terrific on defense, but Fox is still a bit too cheap on DK given his production this year.

Cash Plays

Fox (Draftkings)

GPP Plays

Fox

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers - 10:30 pm

MIN

Derrick Rose is a must play in cash games and one of the best values on the slate. Teague is out again and Rose is expected to draw another start at point guard. Usage is an issue in this starting lineup with so many high volume shooters, but Rose starts with the ball in his hand as the point guard, so he should have a safe amount of production. This team desperately needs to make a trade.

Cash Plays

Rose

GPP Plays

Rose

LAL

On the high end, Lebron is the safest guy to play in cash games. His minutes were limited last game in a blowout, but outside of that night, he hasn’t had any duds this year. I don’t doubt that either Lonzo or Rondo could have a good game, but Walton is not going to be consistent with who he decides will play more minutes.

Cash Plays

James
Ingram (Fanduel)

GPP Plays

James
Ingram

We have a pretty big slate with a lot off options. Rose is the best value play and I think he needs to be played in cash games tonight. As far as expensive players go, I think Lebron is the best cash option and Davis is the best GPP play.

 
69.8d ago
Hey, good call on booker and bledsoe.
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69.8d ago
It’s been a rough year for Tatum. I’ll write about him a bit tomorrow, but he might have lost his starting job.
69.8d ago
Lol, just tuned and saw he's playing. I assumed he was injured. How's it possible to have 0 everything in 13 minutes??
69.8d ago
Yeah, he has sucked. He isn't injured
69.9d ago
Anyone see what happened to Tatum?
70.0d ago
Middleton @trd
70.0d ago
Yea Warren is a really good play
70.0d ago
at 4k on DK? hell yea
70.0d ago
warren for cash?
70.0d ago
Last guy in: Nurk, Capela, or Middleton
70.0d ago
Thoughts on TJW? Best value now?
70.1d ago
15-19 minutes for Holmes is reasonable, but I think Bell/McKinney or whoever starts in place of Green is a better value
70.1d ago
Tyson wasn’t in the rotation
70.1d ago
@bm I don’t think Schroder is going to be quite that chalky, but I never take issue with fading anybody unless they are an unquestionably great value.
70.1d ago
I know Holmes has been playing minutes in the teens but he played more mins last game now that Tyson is gone?
70.1d ago
Seeing Harden cheaper than ABC, Curry, and Durant is a first for me.
70.1d ago
Would you be ballsy enough to fade Schroder completely knowing he'll probably be the highest owned player on DK?
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70.1d ago
Harden would be 1 for me, he’s a bit too cheap. Giannis second and then everybody else is just kinda bunches together.
70.1d ago
Greg what's your order? So far I think its Giannis, Curry, Harden, Durant for me at the moment...
70.1d ago
Harden favorite guy to pay up for?
70.1d ago
Booker seems to be somewhat matchup proof. He hasn’t had any bad games this year, so I think he’s worthwhile. It’s a great matchup for Boston, but they have had so few big games this year. The best individual matchup is Horford.
70.1d ago
Thanks...outside of Ayton, anybody in the Suns/BOS game you looking at?
70.1d ago
The best value is going to be whoever starts in place of Draymond. It's a bit hard to say who it will be as of now. I think George is a good play, but not quite as strong as he was last night. Tougher matchup and tail end of a back to back. CP3 is going to be guarding Schroder, so I do think that means more of the offense funneled to George.
70.1d ago
also, are you still back on PG13? Will Schroder get CP3 defense?
70.1d ago
Greg, what's your take on tonight's slate? Who are the top studs and values?
70.1d ago
The Bledsoe price on DK is a bit ridiculous to me
70.1d ago
@ add he is forced into heavy min tonight and is pretty cheap on DK, not as cheap on FD but still decent.
70.1d ago
Bell or mckinnie?
70.1d ago
Why the love for Beverly? I know he’s been playing extreme minutes.
70.2d ago
No pod either. @addison, I personally don't like to bank on blowouts. Rozier is not happy with his role...he's a little too unpredictable for me but I might have a little. Holmes getting minutes in the teens...and Ayton plays in blowouts. I won't play holmes
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70.2d ago
No articles on Thursday but might be a podcast
70.2d ago
Is there no article today? Or has he just not posted it yet?
70.2d ago
What about Richaun Holmes for the suns? and Terry Rozier if Celtics blow out suns.
70.2d ago
Not sure if all in on Giannis is a good approach. I say that not because he's not a good play, but extra usage for Curry/Durant and also Harden is a bit underpriced are all viable options.
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70.3d ago
I'm no expert but I'm all in on Giannis. Best value is likely going to be one of Bell or McKinnie but not sure how much of each I want or if having both in the same line up is viable.
70.3d ago
No article today, so gonna start the discussion. I think there are a lot of studs in good spots, but not a lot of clear cut value. I actually really like the top four guys. If Westbrook plays, I would fade OKC all together, and make my choices simpler. Otherwise I'm going back to PG13.
70.8d ago
hahahhahahahhahahahahaahhaha
100% (1) UP 
70.8d ago
Well, so much for my prediction on pace. :? Guess that's why I DON'T bet on the over/under for Spurs games. :P ;D
70.9d ago
I have Davis and whiteside in gpp and obvi punt at many positions to fit in two of them, barely winning anything.
70.9d ago
Back on the bench
70.9d ago
Well at least Davis had a great game in 3 quarters
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70.9d ago
He's gunna triple dub with Blocks
70.9d ago
I just got back from dinner. WTF did Whiteside do tonight? He went nuclear on the Spurs.
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70.9d ago
@harrison looks like you were right about the Spurs game being a blowout
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70.9d ago
8 blocks.??s
70.9d ago
Crazy right
70.9d ago
Whiteside just going ham
70.9d ago
Lowry or Buckets for util? Need one of those guys to go off. Thanks
70.9d ago
PG is playing fairly well, but just a really low scoring game so far
71.0d ago
PG picking it up a bit now
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71.0d ago
Cedi...there goes 25% of my lines
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71.0d ago
What is Paul George doing?
71.0d ago
It balances out over the season. Some in game injuries in favor some not in favor. That’s the way it goes. Super annoying when the bad break happens though.
71.0d ago
I must have been "using the force" because I had zero exposure to him in all my GPP plays. I was dreading the thought...but now, breathing a huge sigh of relief. I feel for you guys playing cash though...tough hit to take... :/
71.0d ago
Thanks!
71.0d ago
I’m prohibiting myself from any Jedi/Cedi puns until further notice
71.0d ago
I slightly prefer Turner
100% (1) UP 
71.0d ago
RIP CASH LINE :( gonna need a value play to drop like 40 lol. Cmon JR!
71.0d ago
Late slate on Yahoo, GPP, Myles Turner or Sabonis? Sabonis is projecting higher but I can afford one or the other.
71.0d ago
Can I buy u a beer.....LMAO. There goes our night.
71.0d ago
Welp. >:(
71.0d ago
Same here. Doubtful to return with back spasms.
71.0d ago
He’s in my cash lineup.....
71.0d ago
Parker
71.0d ago
@monstee back injury
71.0d ago
One quick one greg if you can: Parker or Ingram
71.0d ago
Seriously?? Did he go back to locker room?
71.0d ago
Sexton off to a great start
71.0d ago
Cedi hurt early
71.0d ago
No known restriction
71.0d ago
No known minute restrictions on Ellington right?
71.0d ago
I like getting Ellington in @keno
71.0d ago
Parker/Ellington
71.0d ago
Parker & Ellington or White & Bembry
71.0d ago
Last minute I went from Hardaway and Ingram to Ellington and Griffin on FD, thoughts Greg? lol
71.0d ago
Yea swap Bertans to Ellington
71.0d ago
bertans isn't starting. Should I look for another value option? Maybe Ellington?
71.0d ago
Yea for sure
71.0d ago
Ellington in cash greg?
71.0d ago
@sgog I have more Parker exposure
71.0d ago
White @katkel
71.0d ago
@so yes Lebron in cash and AD for GPP
71.0d ago
I think 25% is fair
71.0d ago
thanks greg. What type of exposure would you put AD in GPPs? Last time I got him at 25% but that seems too high.
71.0d ago
Ibaka or Jabari Parker raw points??
71.0d ago
JR Smith or White for cash?
71.0d ago
Yahoo GPP...stud to pay up for, LeBron or AD?
71.0d ago
thanks greg. What type of exposure would you put AD in GPPs? Last time I got him at 25% but that seems too high.
71.0d ago
No more so than any of the other variance we see from him
71.0d ago
are you worried about AD's elbow at all?
71.0d ago
@btwells fox/Osman
71.0d ago
For me the White news doesn’t effect Bertans, but still looking for the Spurs starting lineup
71.0d ago
Sexton @logan
71.0d ago
Whoa thats a bizarre line change. Interesting thanks greg
71.0d ago
Fox/Osman or JR Smith/Aldridge? DK
71.0d ago
Bertans Still in play?
71.0d ago
With the Derrick white news is bertans still a solid okay? Gpp
71.0d ago
Would u go Sexton or white for cash? On DK. @greg
71.0d ago
@aggregate the line has actually moved in favor of Cleveland since Hill was ruled out, but I don't agree with that
71.0d ago
@bm I like White and Sexton/Clarkson are both in play. Sexton the priority now that he's starting.
71.0d ago
Is PG safe for cash still if we can expect a blowout (Sexton is a much worse player than Hill)
71.0d ago
Derozan @keno
71.0d ago
And why did randle get such a sizable bump just because of payton being out?
71.0d ago
So you like sexton, how about clarkson? Also, you like bertan but what about white?
71.0d ago
@corb the minutes have to be assigned to somebody, but I don't think any of us can really have a ton of confidence in the Knicks' rotation on any given night
71.0d ago
Derozan or Lowry Cash DK, last spot so money doesn't matter Cash
71.0d ago
Yup, there goes Hill...
71.0d ago
Kevin Knox seems highly rated in the projections, wonder if that's legit
71.0d ago
Sexton is a good value now. Good for cash/GPP
100% (1) UP 
71.0d ago
@79912 Rose in cash imo
71.0d ago
Also what are your thougts on Sexton if he starts now?
71.0d ago
Maybe it's just the homer in me talking, but with all those young'uns starting for the Spurs tonight, plus DeRozan moving over to SF, I'd bet Coach Pop wants to push the pace in that game. Might be good to bet the over on that game? But again, could be just the wishful homer in me talking... :P ;D
71.0d ago
Robinson is good as your punt @keno
71.0d ago
Greg you like Glenn Rob for Cash on FD ?
71.0d ago
Schroder,Rose,White,how to choose pg
71.0d ago
Hill out so no longer in play
71.0d ago
I don’t think it should change much for Bertans. My expectation is that he will still start, but I haven’t seen an official lineup yet.
71.0d ago
Berty no longer good for cash?
71.0d ago
With the Derrick white news is bertans still a solid okay? Gpp
71.0d ago
Is bertans not in play now? If so is white in play?
71.0d ago
@relaxn I don’t doubt that either Lonzo or Rondo could have a good game, but Walton is not going to be consistent with who he decides will play more minutes
71.0d ago
Ingram @keno
71.0d ago
In a pinch you can roster Hill for cash @logan
71.0d ago
Rose for cash @logan
71.0d ago
Thoughts on Rondo Dk?
71.0d ago
Ibaka or Ingram Cash on FD Greg
71.0d ago
Hill for cash though? @greg
71.0d ago
@generaljager 1. Thank you for your service and send general soreness my regards 2. Bad for Prince and good for Bembry, who is in play for me in cash/GPP now
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71.0d ago
@phil bellineli would only be a deep GPP play. We also have a white coming back tonight to take some backcourt minutes.
71.0d ago
@logan I think George hill is worth rostering
71.0d ago
Bertans @relaxn
71.0d ago
Bembry good for cash now?
71.0d ago
Prince not starting is a good or bad thing?
71.0d ago
do you think belinelli is worth a look with rudy out?
71.1d ago
@greg SG is rough on DK anyone u like outside of Mitchell, hardaway and rose?
71.1d ago
Favorite C DK cash
71.1d ago
I would entertain the idea on DK, deff not FD tho at 4500 ha
71.1d ago
I'm playing J.R. in cash, we'll see that happens
100% (2) UP 
71.1d ago
@addison hill and Cedi together is fine especially since it looks like the Cavs are committing to small ball
71.1d ago
Haha yea JR for GPP. If you trust him in cash then you have way bigger balls than I do.
71.1d ago
/me throws a bottle of henny on the court, then watches JR smith run towards the henny
100% (1) UP 
71.1d ago
Is hill and Cedi in same lineup ok for gpp on dk
71.1d ago
@logan last time i asked the question about spurs blowing out the suns, they did blow them out. so *shrugs*
71.1d ago
JR still just a GPP guy Greg?
71.1d ago
J.R. a must for cash? ;-)
71.1d ago
The Cavs do not like Nance
100% (1) UP 
71.1d ago
@texans it’s really hard to trust his minutes. He played 11 minutes last game and it was a double OT game.
71.1d ago
@al3 little dog
71.1d ago
FD GPP Mitchell Robinson?
71.1d ago
FD cash punt at SF, Juancho or Little Dog?
71.1d ago
The spurs aren’t the team they used to be for years anymore bro @harrison
71.1d ago
Carter
71.1d ago
Carter Jr. or Sabonis?
71.1d ago
Miami is favored by 2 points
71.1d ago
It might be poor memory, but in games without Dragic, the Heat have been getting blown out or barely competing in games. If he's out, is a blowout likely or at least concern for blowout for spurs game?
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71.1d ago
@gdaly TJ due to the price
71.1d ago
@keno yea, but only if Dragic sits for Johnson. With Wade also out it figures he would have to see a sizable role.
71.1d ago
Thanks for the highlight - thanks Josh! For anyone else interested in the comments, it can be found here: https://www.nba.com/cavaliers/video/teams/cavaliers/2018/11/06/2326194/1541474831860-181105-coach-postgm-2326194 around the the 4 min mark
100% (1) UP 
71.1d ago
Greg, greater value on Winslow or T. Johnson if Dragic sits? Winslow started last game he sat out if I'm not mistaken.
71.1d ago
Greg if Dragic is out, Ty Johnson good for cash?
71.1d ago
I got Bron on FD PG13 on DK for Cash
71.1d ago
I think PG is close to a must play in DK cash games
71.1d ago
PG or forcing in Lebron DK cash
71.1d ago
Re: Hill and Sexton, Drew has been annoying, but he did say after last game that he erred in not playing Sexton more, despite Sexton not being good, which is painfully obvious to everyone. So i think we see the minutes for hill dip a little in this one
100% (2) UP 
71.1d ago
Fav C DK cash and thoughts on Adams and McGee?
71.1d ago
Just a note: I think Lue got fired 4 games ago (you said 2), so Hill's minutes have actually been 20, 24, 28 and then 32. Then 20 minutes was due to foul trouble and Sexton got good run then. Not sure about the 2nd game, prob realizing that Sexton is not NBA ready?
100% (1) UP 
71.1d ago
my three centers on FD are Kat, Adams, and WCS. I think i will fade Kat because jimmy is playing. Ill end up using Adams or Wcs
71.1d ago
I don’t think today is a great stack slate. I think it’s better to just pick and choose the best plays because there isn’t any one game I like a lot of players from
71.1d ago
Min/LA best stack game?
71.1d ago
Yea he should have extra rebounds available with Russ out
71.1d ago
You good with Adams for cash at C?
71.1d ago
Yes that’s fine
71.1d ago
Good with Schroder and PG together for Cash Greg?
71.2d ago
@texans for promotional reasons we make the article free on Wednesday’s, but it’s for paid customers only the other days of the week
100% (1) UP 
71.2d ago
@al3 I think that’s a good idea. I do have that at the bottom of my article today. I also think I’ll grt the question anyway haha.
71.2d ago
@keno it’s pretty tough to fill the center spot today on FD. I think it makes sense to build the rest of your lineup and then go with the best option of what fits after all the spots are filled.
71.2d ago
Good Suggestion @al3b
71.2d ago
when it says (Free Article) Will there be a paid article?
100% (1) UP 
71.2d ago
so i think the format of the article would benefit from having a top stud play and a top value play at dk, fd, if only mentioning two. I know those values change before lock, but it would speed up the "hey whats the best value/stud or etc" question.
100% (1) UP 
71.2d ago
Good stuff boss lets get it today, Favorite Center for Cash on FD Greg?
100% (1) UP 
71.2d ago
https://soundcloud.com/gregehrenberg/foul-balls-11-7. Podcast for tonight. Any early questions?