DFS 3/11 Wednesday (free article)

March 11, 2020 by Greg EhrenbergView Comments

Twitter: @gehrenbergdfs

Will Luka have another big game without KP?

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers - 7:00 pm

DET

The safest play here is Christian Wood. Over the last month, he’s been one of the most consistent DFS producers. He scores right around 40 fantasy points in just about every game. For cheap, McRae is a viable play with upside. He scores about a fantasy point per minute and could get decent run, especially if Bruce Brown is ruled out. Thon Maker is nearly min price on DK and is worth a look after he played 27 minutes last game.

Cash Plays

Wood

GPP Plays

Wood
McRae
Maker (Draftkings)

PHI

Philly is finally getting pieces back. Richardson is going to play after missing three games with a concussion and Embiid is questionable. If Embiid plays, he would make for a great play if he doesn’t have a minutes restriction. At the moment, it’s unclear how much he would be allowed to play. Despite the missed time, he could play normal minutes since he had a shoulder injury. If he’s out then we can continue to look at Harris and Horford as good options.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat - 7:30 pm

CHA

There were a ton of great fantasy purposes from the Hornets on Monday, which shouldn’t be the case tonight. That was a game against the Hawks that went to double overtime. Tonight’s game is a far more difficult matchup in Miami. Not only do we have to worry about the Heat’s defense, there is blowout risk and this game has the lowest total on the slate. The pricing here is also a bit inflated due to Monday’s game.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

MIA

There are a ton of questionable players in the Miami backcourt. Butler, Herro and Nunn are all questionable to play. This situation is going to need an update and Dragic stands to gain the most. If none of these guards are able to play, Dragic could end up starting and playing big minutes against one of the weaker defenses in the league. If everybody plays, there is substantial blow risk and the production would be spread out.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks - 7:30 pm

NYK

The Knicks’ rotation last night was bat shit crazy. Getting behind early to the Wizards, the starters came off the court four minutes into the game, leading to extended minutes for the bench. I don’t trust anybody here for cash games, but for GPP, there is clear upside playing against the Hawks and we should see minutes go back to normal tonight. The top tournament play here is Payton going up against Trae Young defense.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Payton
Barrett
Robinson

ATL

Young is a fine upside play although he isn’t my top expensive play on the slate. Doncic is the clear guy for me in cash games, leaving Young as a GPP play for me. Unless enough value opens up to play both of the sophomore guards, Young isn’t a somebody I would look to roster in cash. Another GPP play, Reddish has upside if he can stay healthy. In the Hawks’ last six games, he has three big performances, one missed game and two games he left around halftime because of injuries. Hopefully, he stays on the court tonight.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Young
Huerter (Fanduel)
Reddish

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder - 8:00 pm

UTA

This is a pretty weak game to target. Both sides have strong defenses, the total is low and there is rarely any pricing value on Utah. I am typically only looking to target the Jazz when Conley rests or somebody else is dealing with an injury. As it currently stands, it’s unlikely that anybody here has a big game. Update: It is now starting to look like Gobert might sit tonight after he missed shootaround due to illness. If he’s out, we can look to Bradley as a value play. In his two starts this season, he averaged just under 30 fantasy points.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

OKC

After Gilgeous-Alexander sat on Monday, he’s probable to play tonight. Assuming he plays, there isn’t any value to see here. Chris Paul will see a step back in playing time and usage and Schroder would also see less playing time off the bench. We have available plays if SGA has a setback, which doesn’t seem to be all that likely at this point of the day. The Thunder aren’t typically an upside team with everybody healthy and a matchup against the Jazz doesn’t help their cause.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks - 8:00 pm

DEN

Will Barton is a bit too cheap on both sites. He’s had a pair of big games in a row, which shouldn’t really come as a shock. Towards the end of January, he was a guy priced well over $7k before missing a handful of games with an injury. It took Barton a couple weeks to get back on track and he should be able to get back to regularly producing mid-30 fantasy points per game. Until Barton’s price goes up, he’s somebody to consider.

Cash Plays

Barton

GPP Plays

Barton
Jokic

DAL

Since this is a back-to-back, Porzingis is expected to sit. Dallas been cautious with him and hasn’t been allowing KP to play games in consecutive days. With him off the court, we should expect a big night for Doncic, making him my favorite expensive play on the slate. He has a 39.7% usage rating and scores a couple extra fantasy points per 36 minutes with Porzingis off the court. For value, we can look to Kleber who will likely enter the starting lineup.

Cash Plays

Doncic
Kleber
Hardaway Jr.

GPP Plays

Doncic
Kleber
Hardaway Jr.

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings - 10:30 pm

NOR

The pricing is pretty fair for the Pels. Particularly on Fanduel, Zion makes for the best value play and he’s also a safe play at his FD price. My next favorite play on this team is Jrue Holiday. He’s seen the biggest uptick in playing time and production over the last couple weeks with the Pelicans fighting for a playoff spot. Holiday is regularly playing 38 minutes per game down the final stretch of the season.

Cash Plays

Williamson
Holiday
Ingram

GPP Plays

Williamson
Holiday
Ingram

SAC

The frontcourt situation for the Kings has been a rough spot for fantasy production since Holmes came back from his shoulder injury. He’s playing under 20 minutes a game, which isn’t enough to roster, while it is enough playing time that he cut into the production of Bjelica and Giles. The best case scenario here will be if Holmes returns to the starting lineup. It’s going to happen eventually although it’s unclear when. Fox is the safest play rom the Kings while Boganovic and Hield are risky upside plays.

Cash Plays

Fox

GPP Plays

Fox
Hield
Bogdanovic

I am going to be building around Luka tonight. Both his floor and ceiling are substantial when Porzingis doesn't play. As for value, there's a bunch of players still listed questionable. It seems like there should be a decent amount of cheap options once we get more info.