DFS 3/20 Monday

March 20, 2017 by Greg Ehrenberg

Follow me on Twitter @gehrenbergdfs

There are only a few weeks left of regular season basketball.

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets - 7:00 pm

ATL

There is a lot of value in the Hawks tonight as Dunleavy, Millsap, and Bazemore have all been ruled out. Tim Hardaway and Ersan Ilyasova are going to step into the starting lineup and draw positive matchups. Taurean Prince will be the first man off the bench and he played 31 minutes in the Hawks last game even with Bazemore active. He will split time playing at both small forward and power forward. Both Schroder and Howard have been better per minute producers this year with Milsap off the court. I usually don't like playing Schroder in cash, but I think his minutes should be fairly safe tonight. The Hawks will need his offense with Millsap hurt.

Cash Plays

Schroder
Howard
Prince
Hardaway
Ersan

GPP Plays

Schroder
Howard
Prince
Hardaway
Ersan

CHA

The Hawks have struggled to defend backcourts this season, which makes both Walker and Batum strong plays tonight. Batum played just 27 minutes in the Hornets last game as he was returning from a migraine issue. There is a bit of risk here, but I would expect him to go back to seeing normal minutes. He played well in the last game and the only thing that really held him back was the minutes restriction. I am off the Hornets front court with the whole squad healthy.

Cash Plays

Walker
Batum

GPP Plays

Walker
Batum

Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers - 7:00 pm

UTA

Favors has been ruled out for tonight and Hood is questionable. With Hood off the floor this year, Hayward has seen the biggest bump in production, but he profiles more as a GPP play for me tonight due to the matchup against Paul George. If Hood is ruled out Ingles will start in his place and should get over 30 minutes of run. Joe Johnson is the likely starter at power forward in place of Favors.

Cash Plays

Ingles (if starting)
Johnson (if starting)

GPP Plays

Ingles
Johnson
Hayward

IND

I am mostly off of the Pacers tonight. I will have some Paul George exposure on Fanduel. It is not because I think he is a great play or in a good spot. This is a brutal matchup, but the small forward pool on Fanduel sucks today.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

George (Fanduel)

Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic - 7:00 pm

PHI

Jahlil Okafor is questionable with knee soreness. He started the Sixers’ last game, but was only able to make it through 11 minutes of action before coming out of the game. Okafor has been battling knee soreness for the last couple weeks, but the Sixers are no where near as cautious with Okafor as they are with their other young guys. If Okafor is out then Richaun Holmes would become a strong play. Holmes has really struggled with foul trouble this year, but he should be in line for 30+ minutes if he starts and keeps the fouls in check.

Cash Plays

Holmes (if starting)
Saric

GPP Plays

Holmes
Saric
Covington

ORL

Vucevic is once again questionable with a sore right achilles. It is the same injury that caused him to miss 4 games earlier in the month. If Vooch can't shake this injury, I think we are going to see him get shut down. The Magic have nothing to play for but a draft pick and it would make sense to sit Vucevic to avoid a more serious injury. If he can’t play Biyombo would step back into the starting job and would be looking at 35+ minutes of action. Fournier, Payton, Ross, and Gordon would all be looking at bumps in production as well.

Cash Plays

Ross (Fanduel)
Gordon
Fournier
Biyombo (if starting)

GPP Plays

Ross (Fanduel)
Gordon
Fournier
Biyombo (if starting)
Vucevic (if active)

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics - 7:30 pm

WAS

Markieff Morris has been upgraded to probable after originally being listed as questionable with an illness. I am off him tonight due to concerns about his conditioning. He hasn't played for a week. John Wall is a good play assuming that Thomas is active. Isaiah Thomas is one of the worst point guard defenders in the league. I will be off of Wall if Thomas is ruled out and Smart starts.

Cash Plays

Wall

GPP Plays

Wall
Porter

BOS

Thomas has missed the Celtics last 2 games with a knee injury, but he is listed as probable tonight. Assuming that Thomas plays, I won’t have much exposure to the Celtics tonight. While the game total is one of the higher ones on the slate, the Celtics’ prices are all marked up due to the increased production they had when Thomas was out. Everybody will be returning to their normal roles tonight.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Thomas (Draftkings)
Bradley

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder - 8:00 pm

GSW

While his fantasy point totals may not show it, Steph Curry has been awesome the last couple games for the Warriors. He appears to have really benefited from the extra rest Kerr gave to his stars last week. Curry has been knocking down shots at a higher percentage and overall has appeared to being moving better while playing with more energy. Obviously this is a bit subjective, but I am expecting a really strong finish to the year for Curry. It is not unreasonable to think he can get back to playing at his MVP level when he was an 11k player.

Cash Plays

Curry
Green
Thompson
Iguodala (Fanduel)

GPP Plays

Curry
Green
Thompson
Iguodala

OKC

The first 3 games for the Thunder this year against Golden State have not gone well. They have lost by at least 16 points in each game. Tonight figures to be different with Durant out. The Warriors are only favored by 1 point with a game total of 222.5 points. To me Westbrook is the top overall guy on the slate. I prefer him over Harden. Right now it appears Gibson and Kanter are making each other irrelevant in DFS. Neither are logging heavy minutes and Kanter has payed under 20 minutes in 6 of the Thunder’s last 7 games.

Cash Plays

Westbrook

GPP Plays

Westbrook
Oladipo

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets - 8:00 pm

DEN

It will be interesting to see where the ownership percentages land for this game. Chandler, Gallinari, and Arthur have all once again be ruled out. Barton and Jokic were extremely popular plays when these teams met on Saturday night. Not much has changed since then except for Barton having a massive price drop on Fanduel. I actually expect him to have lower ownership at a lower price tag due to a dud in his last game. Barton is $1,500 cheaper on Fanduel than Draftkings.

Cash Plays

Harris
Jokic
Barton (Fanduel)
Plumlee

GPP Plays

Harris
Jokic
Barton
Plumlee
Hernangomez
Nelson

HOU

Harden figures to be one of the most popular plays on the slate. Not only does he have 4 consecutive triple doubles, but the Rockets are easily expected to be the highest scoring team on the slate. Even though the Rockets should score a ton of points, I don't really love a ton of guys from their side of this game. They are pretty fairly priced and the inclusion of Lou Williams into the rotation has limited the upside of the Rockets’ secondary players.

Cash Plays

Harden
Beverley

GPP Plays

Harden
Beverley
Ariza
Williams
Capela

New York Knicks at Los Angeles Clippers - 10:30 pm

NYK

Porzingis will be active tonight after missing one game with a thigh bruise. The injury was extremely minor and is nothing to be concerned about. People were asking me on twitter if he was going to be shutdown, but I would expect him to be 100% tonight. I think he would have played in the Knicks last game if they were still in the playoff hunt. I am not sure who the Knicks will start at center between Hernangomez and Porzingis. This might be a game where they play this bigger lineup with KP/Willie to matchup with Griffin and Jordan.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Anthony
Porzinigs
Hernangomez (if starting)

LAC

The Clippers are overall in a very good spot tonight. This game does carry a bit of blowout risk, as the Clippers are not only 11 point favorites, but the Knicks have had a tendency to lose big this year. Chris Paul has really struggled with foul troubles recently. He picked up 2 quick fouls in the game against the Cavs backups and had 3 consecutive games with at least 4 fouls prior to that game. This has been really flukey and I expect Paul to be able to avoid fouling tonight.

Cash Plays

Griffin
Jordan

GPP Plays

Griffin
Jordan
Paul
Redick

Most of the value tonight as on the Hawks as of now. They are the best team to target tonight imo. Their value players can be used to fit in guys like Harden and Westbrook.

 
6.5d
bm1234
100% (1) agree 
I would play Barton at 5800. DK don't afford us that luxury.
6.5d
Aggregate
Westy killed my beautiful Holmes, Saucey and Gary Harris lineup
6.5d
Mrjordan23
Well looks like targeting the GSW/OKC game was crap for me
6.5d
gehrenberg
So Will Barton plays the rockets Saturday night at $6600 and tonight plays the rockets at $5800. But tonight his ownership was less than half of what it was Saturday
6.6d
bm1234
100% (1) agree 
I just don't learn...keep falling for the Kemba trap
6.6d
boohaa
It2, 3%. Lezzz go!
6.6d
gehrenberg
Sixers up 15 at half so there could be garbage time minutes for Long if the game is a blowout
6.6d
gehrenberg
I watched the first half of the Sixers game and still have no opinion on Long as a player though.
6.6d
gehrenberg
He only played 6 minutes in the last game even with Okafor only playing 11. So even if he took all of Okafor minutes he would have been at 17 minutes. It's really hard for me to play somebody who I think will only have that much playing time
6.6d
bm1234
Jokic under 4%, Plumlee under 7%...wow. All DEN are underowned IMO with the exception of faried
6.6d
bm1234
12 minutes...no. Because with so limited minutes he's way to volatile even given his per minute monster status. Very similar to KOQ. Part of me going with him also is that Holmes never played more than 29 minutes. So unless tonight's the night, I still think Long will get more minutes...but so far he's on pace for 14...which would suck
6.6d
mrachek
Ross is killing me with -2 right now
6.6d
gehrenberg
If Long ends up with say 18 fantasy points in 12 minutes would you roster him again next slate if he's still the min and Okafor is out again? Assuming neutral matchup I don't know who the Sixers play
6.6d
bm1234
Long is well on its way to blow away his value expectations. If he can end up with 20 minutes as projected, I think he'll easily go 8x
6.6d
gehrenberg
Good point, very true.
6.6d
bm1234
All about value on that slate. Jason Smith came on a day with Boston, PHX, BKN values. I think if there's a Jason Smith tonight (assuming its the first start), he'd be over 30% owned. Who knows...ultimately recency bias is the largest factor. If long exceeded value like Prince did, he'd be over 30% owned.
6.6d
gehrenberg
Thats still higher owned than what smith was though, which I find interesting
6.6d
JayScoop
So far, so good. Long with two steals in three minutes.
6.6d
bm1234
Long is under 6%. The difference though is that he's not starting. Starters imply minutes, so Long was never going to be heavily owned. Prince on the other hand is also not a starter, but he has around 30 minutes in 3 of last four games. He's ridiculously 40%+ owned. DK gpps
6.6d
gehrenberg
i was talking about Smith when he was he min. I think he was 3-5% owned that night and had 40 or so fantasy points. I'm not sure what longs ownership is I didn't play him at all
6.6d
boohaa
I ended up on Dwight and Vucevic as my only C's. PG we It2, Westy, Curry, Kemba. SG/SF/PF i went pretty chalk. Batum at 7% is nice value find.
6.6d
bm1234
Jason Smith is well above min thanks to DK :)
6.7d
gehrenberg
I think it will be interesting to see how his ownership compares to a guy like Jason Smith on night one with Kieff out. Smith was more minutes at a lower per minute output. And Shawn Long is just a complete unknown with high production in garbage time minutes. Both at min price though
6.7d
al3b3d3v
tons of prince and ross in my lines to fit in the studs
6.7d
balogunad123
Prince, Ross, or Joe Johnson?
6.7d
al3b3d3v
going long on Long...
6.7d
bm1234
100% (1) agree 
at min salary, I think he can make value with 20 min. He's well above pt per minute but short sample. It'll certainly be interesting tonight after all this discussion.
6.7d
gehrenberg
I think there can always be a case made for rostering anybody in a GPP. I just question the upside a guy no team wanted and has almost no chance at big minutes
6.7d
bm1234
Gonna definitely have some exposure to Long. Holmes have not exceeded 29 minutes any time this season. Long is going to get some minutes against ORL's bigs.
6.7d
Kevo2233
For what it is worth. On two other sites that I use. Shawn Long's value is 0 and 2.8.
6.7d
gehrenberg
I agree with what you are saying Kyle, but I think it's also worth noting that he only played 6 minutes in the Sixers last game when Okafor left early and played just 11 minutes
6.7d
gehrenberg
I can't say I have seen him play to be informed Mrjordan23. He played at a very small school and went undrafted. So far he has really only played limited minutes in garbage time. The Sixers just signed him for the rest of the year after he was originally on a 10 day contract. This is about all I know about him
6.7d
kylemckeown16
Long played 15 minutes the last time Okafor was out. Justin Harper was on the team at the time, too, and played 4 minutes in that game. Long is likely to play decent minutes at center Monday unless Richaun Holmes and Dario Saric exceed expectations for how many minutes they'll play.
6.7d
kslight
100% (3) agree 
Other than Holmes, he's the only player who's played center that's available tonight so he's at 20 minutes.
6.7d
Mrjordan23
BTW - not saying you have anything with the projections, gehrenberg, just wondering if you knew anything about him
6.7d
boohaa
Its not up to them or Gehern. If Long plays 20 minutes his past performance should come up with what the BBM page says. The Output can have a vary high degree of variance with a limited nba sample. Its based on his per minute production./ But sometimes what you can do in 6 minutes does extrapolate to 22 minutes properly.
6.7d
gehrenberg
Somebody else would have to answer questions about Shawn Long. I don't handle,the projection page and I'm not particularly high on him personally
6.7d
lenrock21
100% (2) agree 
why do u guys got shawn long so highyly rated tonight? no evidence of them playing big minutes recently
6.7d
Kevo2233
Does anyone like Long for anything tonight in DK? I don't know much about him.
6.7d
gehrenberg
24 year old rookie from Louisiana-Lafayette
6.7d
Mrjordan23
Who is this Shawn Long that just got a sizeable bump in the projections?
6.7d
gehrenberg
No I don't. He only played 6 minutes in the last game when Okafor left early. I don't think there is much minutes upside in Long.
6.7d
boohaa
if you play him make sure its a super deep GPP over like 5000 entires preferred.
6.7d
hegmanu
We really think Shawn (Kemp) Long is getting 20 mins tonight?
6.7d
gehrenberg
Ahh fair enough. I thought maybe there was someplace that measured something that showed teams the racked up fouls quickly against a particular position. Would have been interesting to look at. There could be certain teams that stsrting units draw fouls at a high rate whereas bench unit doesn't draw many fouls. But irrelevant now anyway
6.7d
boohaa
Ok maybe not "quickness", i just saw him come out early in 1st. Any yes total # of fouls v C stat is aggregate so i was using EASE page? Maybe not faster, you are right.
6.7d
gehrenberg
Hood playing tonight
6.7d
gehrenberg
Where can you look up quickness of foul trouble vs a position? Never seen those stats before
6.7d
boohaa
Harden went right at Joker last game got him in foul trouble quicker then you could imagine. Dont see why that couldn't happen again tonight. HOU accrues fouls quicker v C then 29 other teams in the league.
6.7d
gehrenberg
I'm with you on Plumlee. I have been trashing that trade since it happened and have never been found of it. In general I have just been so bullish on Jokic this year that it is difficult for me to be off of him
6.7d
bm1234
Certainly can see your point on Barton. For me personally, I never found him to be a 7K player...he is too volatile to keep that price tag. Jokic I'm much more certain on...lets be real here, the worst has happened...Plumlee ruined Jokic's value. He can certainly meet his salary, making him cash play. But he won't project to exceed it with Plumlee in the starting lineup. I wish they never made that trade...Jokic would've been 11K by now.
6.7d
gehrenberg
Vooch is good to go tonight
6.7d
gehrenberg
In truth I feel good about zero small forwards on fanduel tonight
6.7d
gehrenberg
I wouldnt really say I'm high on Ross. The small forward pool is just super weak on Fanduel and he's going to be playing over 30 minutes at a near min price
6.7d
rrjohnson
Looks like you are high on Ross for cash/gpp. Any concern with Bob Cov defense on him?
6.8d
gehrenberg
Also bm sample size is always an issue for me when projecting ceilings/floors for players stepping outside their usual roles. So you may very well be correct on Will Barton. But when I just look at my numbers, he projects for a huge ceiling at his current price point because of how many big games he has had with 2 of Harris/Chandler/Gallo out. He has also done it pretty frequently.But the sample size is not large enough where I would say I'm 100% sure it's correct
6.8d
gehrenberg
Jokic is usually always low owned so I would guess yes
6.8d
LeslieFrazier
Jokic finna go criminally under-owned w/ all the value at PF and then Rus/Harden?
6.8d
gehrenberg
I think if that is your opinion that is fine. I'm just remarking in general though it is a bit silly for a guy like Jokic to go from being chalky to extremely low ownership against the same team twice in a row when his price drops. So if I'm gerneal you are taking the stand that you don't play Jokic with Plumlee then that's fine. But it wouldn't make sense to be heavy on him last game and jump off today
6.8d
bm1234
IMO, Jokic is unplayable at his price with Plumlee there. He takes a huge hit on usage. Barton at 6900 to me was already way to expensive, which is why at 7300 to me he's not playable. I saw his career night, he needed to drain most of his shots to get that kind of production. His price now is reflective of him hitting most of his shots. I don't see that happening that often. He could blowup, but I'm at peace with that if he does.
6.8d
gehrenberg
Also Barton has gone over 50 draftkings fantasy points 3 of the 12 games that Gallinari has missed. So if to not like he doesn't have upside at $7,300. I would take a 25% chance of being over 50 fantasy points. He also has a handful of other games where he has been over 45 fantasy points
6.8d
gehrenberg
April 12 is the last day of the regular season
6.8d
gehrenberg
On fanduel Barton was over 50% owned at $6,600. Today he is under 6k and I think he will be lower owned
6.8d
LeslieFrazier
Only a few weeks left? =(
6.8d
gehrenberg
But a price change from $6,900 to $7,300 shouldn't justify an ownership change of 50% to being considered unplayable.
6.8d
gehrenberg
I was saying nothing had changed with Barton and jokics situations. Both were extremely chalky on Saturday. Jokic price has gone down in fanduel and draftkings. Barton has gone way done on fanduel and is slightly more expensive on draftkings
6.8d
bm1234
For DK, I wouldn't say nothing have changed on the DEN side. All their prices have been jacked up to crazy levels. Nelson made me a lot of money over the weekend, but now DK jacked him up by 1200. Ownership will be lower for all guys because it should be lower with the increased prices (again, at least on DK...dunno about FD). Barton is unplayable at his current price.