DFS 11/8 Wednesday

November 8, 2017 by Greg EhrenbergView Comments (74)

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When we go from no value to all the value in 20 minutes

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons - 7:00 pm

IND

Domantas Sabonis is out for the second consecutive game due to a calf injury. Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner are both going to be relied on for heavy minutes again. They are both reliable sources for playing time and production tonight. The Pacers don't have other players to soak up minutes in the front court.

Cash Plays

Turner
Young

GPP Plays

Turner
Young

DET

Stanley Johnson is out due to a back injury, which opens up the potential for a cheap punt play. Reggie Bullock is the likely starter, but the Pistons have not yet officially announced who is taking Johsnon’s place. Without much value (edit: not true anymore), Bullock could become the best value play on the slate. It is a scary proposition, since he hasn’t produced this year, but the opportunity will be there for him to payoff his salary. He averaged about 18 DK points in five games as a starter last year.

Cash Plays

Bullock (if starting)
Bradley

GPP Plays

Bullock
Bradley
Harris
Drummond
Jackson

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic - 7:00 pm

NYK

Porzingis has been awesome this year, but the Magic are one of the top defensive teams in the league so far. In addition, the Knicks are playing on the tail end of a back to back. I prefer to pay up for the Warriors' stars tonight. Aaron Gordon is also one of the rare players that I think has the size/athleticism combination to cover Porzingis. Update* KP is now also listed as questionable. Hardaway should see a massive amount of usage of Porzingis can’t suit up.

Cash Plays

Hardaway

GPP Plays

Hardaway

ORL

Elfrid Payton hasn’t played since the second night of the season with a hamstring injury. He is questionable, but even if he plays he is likely to have his minutes restricted. Jonathan Simmons started last game in place of Payton. He only played 21 minutes, but he got into early foul trouble. Simmons is in play if he ends up starting.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics - 8:00 pm

LAL

The Celtics are the best defensive team in the league and they are playing at a slow pace. In addition, this game has blow out risk. The Lakers are a public team and I think this lin is undervaluing the gap between these teams. Brook Lopez benefits a bit from Horford being ruled out, but he is still not quite safe enough to utilize in cash games. I am still concerned about his minutes evaporating.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Lopez

BOS

In a flurry of unexpected injuries, Al Horford is out for tonight with a concussion. He missed nearly a month due to a concussion last year, so this could end up being lengthy injury. Aron Baynes is going to have to soak up a lot of minutes tonight. He often gets into foul trouble, but he is likely to play until fouls become an issue. Irving is also in line for some more usage. He has a usage rating of 31.1% with Horford off the court.

Cash Plays

Irving
Smart
Baynes

GPP Plays

Irving
Smart
Baynes
Morris
Theiss (Draftkings)

Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns - 9:00 pm

MIA

This is a really strong matchup for the Heat. Whiteside’s price remains really cheap for a matchup against one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but his minutes are a concern. He played just 16 minutes in Miami’s last game. He was fresh off a knee injury and it was the second night of a back to back, so those were the likely reasons for limitations, however I can’t confidently say he gets over 30 minutes tonight. His upside still makes him a GPP target. Dragic and Waiters both have upside due to the expected pace and poor defense of Phoenix.

Cash Plays

Dragic
Waiters

GPP Plays

Dragic
Waiters
Whiteside

PHO

T.J. Warren is good. Devin Booker is good. Everybody else on this team has been trash and the minutes are extremely difficult to figure. If Tyson Chandler is ruled out, Alex Len would likely start and become a solid target. Outside of him I can’t get into the Suns’ role players.

Cash Plays

Warren
Booker

GPP Plays

Warren
Booker

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors - 10:30 pm

MIN

This is an awesome stack spot. With Durant ruled out, this game has far less blowout risk. Jimmy Butler’s role has been greatly reduced from his Chicago days, but the upside still exists, especially at his current price point. Towns is a solid play, but so much value is open at center that he isn’t a preferred option for me. I won’t roster Wiggins tonight just because Butler can be rostered for a similar price.

Cash Plays

Butler
Teague

GPP Plays

Butler
Teague
Towns
Gibson

GSW

Kevin Durant is not playing, which causes a massive usage shift for the Warriors. Curry gets the biggest boost and leads the Warriors with a 43.9% usage rate without Durant. Curry is my favorite play on the slate. All of the Warriors remaining stars now have value in their price tags, but Curry should have a monster night against one of the worst defenses in the leage. Andre Iguodala has showed signs of age this year and hasn’t been allowed to play many minutes. Without Durant this could be a game where we see Iggy play closer to the 25-30 minute range we have seen from him in the past.

Cash Plays

Iguodala
Thompson
Green
Curry

GPP Plays

Iguodala
Thompson
Green
Curry

I thought I was done writing this a few times this morning. Porzingis being out would be another slate changer, so hopefully we get a status update prior to lock.

 
13.4d
rsigler65
Why are the T-Wolves playing such tough defense? So annoying.
13.4d
gehrenberg
infinitely better production for Len in the third quarter compared to the first
13.4d
rsigler65
Lol did Len get into foul trouble? Classic.
13.4d
bm1234
Turner, Len, Kanter...all fail team for me
13.4d
So-Tex
So, all we need now is the news that Durant is actually playing tonight, and everything will be par for the course... :/
13.4d
nmondor
100% (3) agree 
Yikes Alex Len
13.4d
nmondor
I missed the memo on fournier
13.5d
bm1234
Kanter...why!!!
13.5d
gehrenberg
I’m suprised how chalky Drummond is with so much value at center
13.5d
rsigler65
Pretty funny how Miles Turner went from chalk this morning to so low owned.
13.5d
boohaa
Local beat reporter for Heat: Tyler Johnson (illness) did not go through shootaround but said he'd play Wednesday vs. the Suns. Johnson always says he'll play when asked, but that decision will ultimately be up to Erik Spoelstra, and it looks like he'll be headed for a game-time call after missing shootaround. If he's out, Wayne Ellington would pick up most of his minutes, and he'd be on the radar as a potential deep league, 3-point streamer. Stay tuned.
13.5d
rsigler65
I tried really hard today to not litter all my lineups with a bunch of low floor value plays. Hope it works out. Just 30% each of Baynes and Len and a teeny amount of O'Quinn.
13.5d
gehrenberg
I had also written a blurb for Draftkings about him playing. The Heat have been awful with injury reporting this year
13.5d
gehrenberg
The Heat announced him as active earlier in the day
13.5d
boohaa
Tyler Johnson OUT now... why did BBM say "IN" when Rotoworld was still saying Questionable... Lol 1% of my lineups dead. I was just too lazy to change him out
13.5d
gehrenberg
I tried to swap beasley in. Couldn't make it in time
13.5d
boohaa
Beasly sux lol. https://basketballmonster.com/DailyPlayerInfo.aspx?i=2812
13.5d
bm1234
60 for me
13.5d
nmondor
Going to be an interesting night. Curry is in 95% of my lineups.
13.5d
Aggregate
Dang Beas is starting, only just saw now I couldve swapped him out for Baynes
13.5d
bm1234
I made sure I have some beasley now that he's starting
13.5d
nated80
for GPP
13.5d
nated80
Ingram or Warren?
13.5d
gehrenberg
I rostered Bullock more than Thomas tonight
13.5d
gehrenberg
Gordon/Len
13.5d
gehrenberg
100% (1) agree 
I used very little Lee. Curry is my guy tonight. He is in 100% of my lineups
13.5d
omnisayon
FD GPP would you prefer Gordon/Len or Tatum/Kanter? Morris already in lineup.
13.5d
TruceJL
Thomas or Bullock?
13.6d
nated80
With Lee in your lineup, who do you spend up for?
13.6d
gehrenberg
Kanter is one of my highest owned players. I have Lee in 6% of my lineups. I used a pretty decent amount of THJ, but no other Knicks
13.6d
insolitude
Aside from THJ, which depends a lot on his shot falling, and Kanter, maybe Ntilikina and Beasley make some noise tonight?
13.6d
nated80
Game is in the Garden this evening
13.6d
gehrenberg
I am good with Morris especially now that Stevens has said that he won't have a minutes restriction
13.6d
boohaa
Morris - Should be close, game is in LA. He will play and do fine. Play him.
13.6d
nated80
Would you play Morris tonight? No restriction on minutes but in a blowout they wont need him down the stretch
13.6d
boohaa
in other words, focus on dray/klay/steph for gsw. Othersise your picking scrubs for no reason??
13.6d
boohaa
I mean, only playing swagginy or bell in like 50,000+ runner events, this guys are not even in the realm of relevant tonight. Look for people to take Porzinguage usage + minutes.... GSW/MIn going to be close or a blow out, if its a blow out all these GSW scrubs owulda got their 5-7x anyhow reguarldess of durant being out
13.6d
gehrenberg
I am not rostering either. I would rather just use guys like Baynes/Len
13.6d
gehrenberg
I don't think Nick Young plays much. There are better ways to go cheap.
13.6d
nated80
Wouldn't you roster Bell before Young?
13.6d
nmondor
I wouldn't say zero, just unlikely. There's always the random game where he shoots 7-7 from 3 and scores 21 points with like 1 rebound and a steal.
13.6d
boohaa
Yes, ZERO. Swaggy waste of lineup. its going to be a close game, hes not going to be a focal point on GSW offense at all.
13.6d
insolitude
Nick Young getting big minutes tonight is too much of a stretch?
13.6d
boohaa
But yea ORL is just meh. youll get 5-6x since NYK going to be playing in slow-gear off the b2b though so its ok. But yea too many guys returning, eveyone usage will be down on ORL.
13.6d
boohaa
Dream slate, all about construction. Play some cheap Centers w/ GSW $$$ Value, or play some Whiteside with some cheap value, or combo Kanter with Hardaway like mentioned. So many tickets i can see winning, all about how you rackem and stack em.
13.6d
boohaa
SG - booker smart hardaway and C. Lee ez game.
13.6d
gehrenberg
100% (2) agree 
There is so much value with so many guys out
13.6d
an99
sg now have booker,waiters,hardaway,dragic.I'm so confused.
13.6d
nated80
I understand that Turner on a B2B but just thinking
13.6d
nated80
Or O'Quinn for that matter
13.6d
nated80
Kanter at $6.8 but Turner right there at $7.5 You think that Kanter will out perform Turner even with KP out?
13.6d
gehrenberg
I think there are better values than Gordon Vooch. I love Kanter/Hardaway now
13.6d
nmondor
11% usage boost for Kanter and 8% usage boost for Hardaway is pretty huge with KP off the floor. I feel like that game is now stackable in GPPs too. This slate is a bit crazy
13.6d
an99
How about Gordon and Vucevic,they will meet low defense
13.6d
gehrenberg
Kanter is a fine play
13.6d
nated80
B-Easy wants to go off though!
13.6d
nated80
are you fading NY big's tonight as ORL defense against bigs pretty stout?
13.6d
gehrenberg
KP is out
13.7d
gehrenberg
Combine them with some combo of them with a combo of Booker/Warren/Len and I think that's a nice game stack
13.7d
nmondor
What’s Dragic/Waiters/Whiteside correlation?
13.7d
nmondor
If whiteside gets the minutes, I’m not sure how anyone on the Suns guards him. Fanduel he’s pricey but DraftKings it looks like he’s in a smash spot
13.7d
gehrenberg
Kyrie gets a slight bump in usage. For Miami I think Waiters/Dragic are strong plays. Whistside is in play on fanduel but Len/Baynes are far better values
13.7d
al3b3d3v
on fanduel the prefered stack is the warriors 3, then I am leaning towards boston and miami but torn on who gets the most usage there, if you had to lean one way where would u go
13.7d
gehrenberg
His upside is very capped. He started a bunch of games last year and didn’t go much.
13.7d
al3b3d3v
How high is the upside for McCaw with durant out, I think he starts over Iggy.
13.7d
gehrenberg
Both are very strong. I think Len has more upside
13.7d
agame2323
100% (1) agree 
As far as Cash... I'm going with anyone that's getting mins and good value. Not even going to overthink it tonight. And I'm staying away from anyone who typically gets into foul trouble.
13.7d
WhiteShadowDFS
I’m thinking Len would be an even better value than Baynes now that Chandler is out. Thoughts?
13.7d
gehrenberg
I added Thies as a GPP play, he would be the pivot if you want to get off Baynes
13.7d
gehrenberg
Theis would have to play more if Baynes gets into foul trouble
13.7d
nmondor
I'm so confused on how to build cash lineups tonight.
13.7d
rsigler65
Who do you think would benefit the most if Baynes does get into early foul trouble?
13.7d
nmondor
There's a ridiculous amount of value now. Of all the value plays so far, who is your favorite? I've been trying to build GPP rosters around Curry, Draymond, Klay, Butler, Towns, Teague and fill in value around them. I feel like BOS/LAL is a viable stack now with Horford out (Kyrie, Tatum, Morris, Lopez, Ball/Kuzma) as is MIA/PHO (Warren, Booker, Len, Dragic, Whiteside, Waiters).
13.7d
gehrenberg
Looks like Chandler is out now as well. Today is nuts.