Matt Smith Australian Q&A Chat, Tuesday 5am US EST/Tuesday 9pm AUS EST


August 15, 2022 by Josh Lloyd View Comments

We are back for another season of Basketball Monster. I’m sure lots of you have been here before, but I’m equally sure we will have a bunch of new users on the site, and firstly, we say welcome.


The core of everything we do at BBM is projections. Myself and Kyle McKeown project every single NBA player for season-long stats, and then we also make game-by-game minutes projections once the season is underway. It powers all of our tools, all of our analysis, and all of our thoughts on fantasy basketball. It’s a long process to put them together, and we are proud of what comes out. These will be updated every day in one way or another as we push to opening night and try to figure out what will happen in the NBA this season.


But, if you are new to the site or just need some assistance, it’s essential to know what these projections are, what they aren’t, and what they can do.


Projections are not rankings. We have a rankings page that tells us what has happened. It’s not a draft list; it’s not how we think players will finish; it’s a ranking based on your parameters of how players have ranked for the season to date or for previous seasons. You can check out the rankings for last season here.


As with everything on the site, the projections and rankings will change based on your league settings. You should immediately import your league or set up a league with the correct settings. This is where you adjust if your league is a categories or points league, activate the categories in your league, or assign the points values. It’s where you state how many teams, how many players are on each team, what the roster construction is and so on.


The page you will use the most leading up to a draft is the Projections page. This is where you can see our projected stats for every player for the upcoming season. But, I must implore that you understand this is not a ranking list. This is not a list of what order you draft players. Yes, the players get ‘ranked’ based on their fantasy points or cumulative value across the active categories in your league, but drafting in fantasy, more in category leagues, is never about going down a list and picking players.


If you go to the projections page, without any nuance, in a standard nine-category league, you’ll see Robert Williams at number seven. You’ll see Luka Doncic at 23. Kristaps Porzingis at nine and Kyrie Irving at four. Under no circumstance should any of these players be picked at these spots. This is where the statistical Z score value for all nine categories spits these players out on a per game basis. I will never tell you to pass on Doncic in the first round. Or to take Williams ahead of Trae Young, James Harden or Steph Curry, yet if you strictly use the projections as a list, that’s what it says, and that’s where you will go wrong.


To get those numbers looking a little more normal, I will always turn the turnovers category to punt, and I weight down the low volume stats like threes, steals, and blocks to a weight of 0.8. This pushes Doncic to 7, Williams to 23, Harden to 5 - things that make more sense. But, even then, you then have to truth and account for games played. We do our best, and we have a new system this year to try and label players’ injury risks, but predicting injuries is impossible. It cannot be done. The correlation year over year for games played ranges from low to non-existent. But, we are right to be sceptical of guys like Irving and Porzingis and even Kevin Durant or Joel Embiid, who occupy two of the top three spots on the list. To try and account for our basic estimation of games played, you can use the ‘replacement player’ button, which subs in the games missed with a waiver wire quality player to try and show the player's value with presumed missed time included. 


But, again, if you just look at the projection set at total value and draft off that list, you will go wrong because, as I said, injuries cannot be predicted. Drafting needs to be multi-faceted. You need to weigh the risk of injury, consider statistical and positional scarcity, and balance projections versus the player’s pre-rank and ADP on your site of choice to understand when you should be picking a player. You need to understand how that player fits in with your already selected players and how valuable they are to you. Throughout the preseason, we will attempt to highlight information to help parse through that data, whether here or on my fantasy basketball show.


One last point. It must be re-stated that myself and Kyle do not go in and just place players in order on the projection page. So, if you look at a player and say, ‘he is ranked too high or low’, look at the individual stat projections and see what you disagree with on a granular level. Fantasy basketball can be a challenging game with many variables and ways to go about it, but we hope to provide the tools to navigate those stormy waters up to draft night and then through the rest of the regular season.


Have a great year


love it!
100% (3) UP
Hi gents, great work already this season! Just wanting to join a Yahoo $ league from Australia, any tips on how to do this?
bigtickettaco 9/13/22
Great job so far of rolling out all the content. I've always wondered if ther is a way to share/copy/export a WATCH LIST from one team to my other teams I have set up in BBM? Thanks.
100% (1) UP
thanks for your hard work and what you do here its greatly appreciated by me
100% (5) UP
The values are 0.00 for league average so when building you can assume that would be about middle of the standings. If you take the average of all your category values, anything 0.7 or over should make you one of the better teams.
100% (3) UP
Hi Josh an Admins, New subscriber here. I am in an auction H2H 9-gat league trying to project out different "builds" that would win. Are there tools or at least data that can let me "battle" against say, historical league averages in various category, so I could emulate whether certain builds are a winning build so to speak?
Just want to say - starting my second year as a subscriber and Josh, want to thank you for all the work. I watch your youtube videos on a regular basis and the combination of those plus Monster is great!
100% (4) UP
i wouldn't really adjust 3pt% much, maybe to 0.9 as percentages can be pretty variable
Josh as someone who uses 3pt% instead of 3 pointers made in their league, would you recommend weighting it? Because I found that top players like luka doncic are falling all the way to 26th while kyrie is 4th in the projections (with turnover off of course).
0% (1) UP
The reason i weight the low volume cats down is because of the extreme volatility in the low numbers. For roto, I probably wouldn't be as inclined to weight them down
100% (1) UP
Hi Josh or anyone else that could assist lol I'm in a H2H keeper league with 16 teams on ESPN. Each team keeps up to two players on their team from the previous season and whatever round you got that player in the previous year would replace your next years pick. For example I'm holding Sabonis who I picked up last year in the third round so he'd replace my 3rd round pick this year. What is the best way to set up mock drafts under this scenario or your real draft as I already know there's essentially 32 players off the board prior to my mock or real draft even starting. I'd like to make sure the cat scarcity and all my data is correct and updates correctly. I understand the Draft tracker as I used it the last 2 years but couldnt find out how to do Mocks' correctly. I also think I can set myself up better for the actual draft as well, maybe i'm missing something IDK. Thanks,
Hey Josh, you mentioned changing weights of stls, blks, 3s slightly lower and punt to to get a better depiction of a player's value. Is this for h2h 9 cat or does this apply for roto as well?
100% (1) UP
I see you're using a "Total Games Values" so players we project for less games will be punished. Since projected # of games is not always reliable, it's probably better to use "Per Game Value" and maybe add an additional value showing "Total Games Value" so you can see both. If you still feel the $ values are lower than you expect to pay, I would increase the # of $1 players until it looks right for your league.
100% (2) UP
Sapnis 9/4/22
ken, josh- both things done before asking. Josh- values mentioned are with bench players/1$-still Gianis 45$
great work per usual! we appreciate u guys!
100% (3) UP
Josh goes over Auction Settings around the 5:30 mark in the Setting up Basketball Monster video.
100% (1) UP
Make sure in the auction you have 'number of $1 players' set correctly. In general, it should be set to how many total bench players you have in your league
Sapnis 9/3/22
Morning! First year starting monster in draft stage and first time auction. Did what is suggested here but still for 16team, 9cat, weekly some ratings seem strange: Trae is nr2 with 55$, while GIanis is 45$, at that rate it is almost impossible to get the top tier players. Is it something more to adjust? And I am trying mock drafts and values again are different-maybe there is some article I miss which is for auction? Otherwise- have a great seasone, and thanks for the great work!
100% (1) UP
RockyD 8/27/22
Team BBM well done! What a great welcome, and great insight as always. I used BBM last year and had the best draft I ever have. Unfortunately had a few injuries to key players and still finished 7th from drafting 11th. Looking forward to going further this season. Thank you for thy articles, and the energy you all put in to them.
100% (1) UP
kokiAlexandre 8/25/22
Already feeling the chills. Thanks for your awesome work, BBM. Josh, this is a banger of a welcome note -- big up!
100% (4) UP
Players are marked Low, Medium, or High risk which are used to generate projections. We'll be displaying these for Josh and Kyle's sets which should be ready in the next few days.
100% (3) UP
"...and we have a new system this year to try and label players’ injury risks" What is this new system?
Rapierman 8/17/22
Well, truth be told, the entire universe is just one big random number generator. In the end, we are subjugated by fate, even in fantasy basketball. No single person or group of people could predict the future with 100%. Were that to happen, then at least one of us would be God. Unfortunately, not of us are Him. That being said, we cannot go blindly into the dark, so we do our best to figure out how things are going to go. That is where statistical analysis has to step in. Even if it's not perfect, it's the best we can do, and it's certainly better than throwing darts in a dart boar. So, rather than run away it, let's at least try to embrace it. We don't have anything better to go on. In the end, some information is better than none at all. I simply choose to come here rather than go blindly into the dark. After all, if I won three roto leagues last year using your analysis, then y'all must be doing something right.
100% (7) UP
d_wags_peja 8/17/22
Awesome. Thanks for clarifying that.
The reason I weigh down the low volume stats is that they are a lot more variable. If someone averages 1.1 steals versus 0.8 steals is a gigantic difference in their fantasy rank. But in reality it's a difference of 1 steal per week and players with very high steals and blocks rocket up rankings completely overvaluing their overall contribution
100% (8) UP
d_wags_peja 8/16/22
Thanks Josh. Your article mentions you weight down the low volume stats like threes, steals, and blocks to a weight of 0.8. Is it possible to get more information relating to how to best weight categories in a future article or podcast? If so, it would be good to know how you determined the weighting value of 0.8 for those categories. I assumed the aim with weighting would be to weight down categories where it's easier to get stats, so the scarce ones are valued more highly. Your example though appears to recommend doing the opposite.
100% (1) UP