Season 2%
New Feature: Min/Max Projections and Minutes Type
ken_adminken_admin9/17

Currently, under each player's profile, you'll see Min and Max projections for Josh and Kyle (for Super Monster).  These are initial versions, and I would expect revisions over the next week or so.  Here's how they're calculated:

Each player is optionally assigned one of the following minute types by Josh and Kyle:

  • Stable with Limited Upside - stable minutes with a potential for small increase
  • Stable with Limited Downside - stable minutes with a potential for a small decrease
  • Performance Upside - could see a nice boost if he performs well
  • Performance Downside - could see a decent decrease if he performs poorly
  • Ramp Up - minutes expected to increase over the season
  • Ramp Down - minutes expected to decrease over the season

If a player has no designation, he's expected to have stable minutes.  Though not included in the min/max calculations, each player obviously has the potential to have a higher max based on injuries.

The minutes type is shown on the profile page and also next to the player's minutes column on most pages.

In addition to adjustments made based on minutes type, we also adjust a player's min/max based on their historical consistency in each stat.  For those with no info, we apply a league default.

Once we're confortable with how these look, we'll add these as optional Value Columns on most page.

If you have any feedback, feel free to post that here.

 

cozyvibezcozyvibez9/17

Inital thoughts this is an amazing feature addition! It would be great if this can be added to Edit Display Values, this way we can see a player's potenial ceiling and floor within Projections and Draft Tracker without having to click into a player's profile. Also always for easier comparison between players and have everything viewable within one page. Would be interested if others feel the same way 

ken_adminken_admin9/17

Thanks, and yes, we expect to add these as Value Columns shortly.

jay14bayjay14bay9/17

great feature it's good to have a range for the projection. on a quick glance though i don't understand why it's showing a $ value that is higher for the minimum projection than the maximum projection (i spotted checked a few players - for example Edey $24 min $17 max)

goonit87goonit879/17

Really like this feature too but like Jay I see some inconsistencies between rank and $ value. For example Pritchard's default forecast is rank 44 / $23 but max is rank 26 / $21, you would expect the $ value of the "max" rank to increase rather than decrease compared to default.

ken_adminken_admin9/17

Thanks, and we'll give the $/rank issue a look.  My guess is it's comparing all max players together so they may look worse than normal.  It should compare their max with other normal though.

goonit87goonit879/17

Thanks Ken!

One more nit that you can take or leave - I noticed that "stable with limited downside" is a red horizontal arrow and "stable with limited upside" is a green horizontal arrow. I would have expected those colors to be reversed since I generally understand "limited downside" to be a positive trait and thus be colored green.

ken_adminken_admin9/17

Yes, better wording may be needed."stable with limited downside" is considered negative since it means "some downside with no upside".  We'll give this some thought, but feel free to offer suggestions.

goonit87goonit879/17

Ah, that makes sense! Consider "stable with potential downside" / "stable with potential upside", those make sense to me and seem to capture what you guys had in mind.

DG23DG239/17

@ken I figure that you guys already have this on your radar, but I noticed that while the min/max projections have ranges for ft% and 2p%, the 3p% numbers are all the same, so wanted to bring that up just in case

ken_adminken_admin9/17

You mean between Josh and Kyle's, the ranges are the same?

DG23DG239/18

As in Josh and Kyle's max and min projections have variations in ft% and 2p%, for example Josh's high vs low projections on Wemby are 84.8% vs 78.6% on fts and then 61% vs 57.9% on fp%, but the 3p% projections on the high vs low are both 36.5% (and same deal with all of Kyle's projection sets for every player from what I can tell)

joshlloyd48joshlloyd489/18
Yeah DG, we've noticed that and are working on that
DG23DG239/18

Awesome, thanks for all that you guys do!

ken_adminken_admin9/18

You should see changes in 3% Min/Max now.

yavidoryavidor9/18

Hi Guys,

These new features are great, thanks for all the hard work.

One small thing I noticed, in leagues with salaries, it seems that the $ values are wrong for the min max projections.

For example, in my league, if I take a look at Andrew Wiggins:

RankValue$Name
1120.3$10Josh Projection
550.59$10 Josh Max 
212-0.01$8 Josh Min 

 

If Josh's projection puts wiggins as the 112 ranked player and in my league that would mean he is worth 10 dollars, then it does not make sense that the max projection which ranks him 55 is also worth $10.  In a similar way I would expect the min projection that ranks him 212, to be worth way less than $8.  In some cases I even saw that the min projection had the highest $ value.

 

Thanks for all the hard work, you guys are awsome!

ken_adminken_admin9/18

We'll fix this today.  The current $ a relative to other max players rather than un-maxed.

JZSonicJZSonic9/21

Could we get an update here once the feature is officially added to the projection? Greatly appreciate it!

rsigler65rsigler659/22

Love to bust out max/min columns on the Projections 25-26 page if possible. Per game and season total? At least per game.