DFS 11/6 Wednesday (free article)

November 6, 2019 by Greg EhrenbergView Comments (128)

Twitter: @gehrenbergdfs

Manage That Load

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers - 7:00 pm

WAS

This doesn’t appear to be a great matchup against the Pacers, however Myles Turner, the Pacers best defender, is questionable to play and Indiana is playing on the tail end of a back-to-back after an overtime game. This isn’t as poor a spot as the ease ranking indicate. Ac couple players stand out to me from the Wizards. Isaiah Thomas finally looks healthy after being banged up the last couple of seasons and it looks like he is the Wizards’ point guard for the foreseeable future. He has tournament winning upside. For cheap, we can look at Troy Brown Jr. as a good value. He opened the season playing light minutes due to an injury and got up to 30 minutes last game.

Cash Plays

Brown Jr.

GPP Plays

Brown Jr.
Thomas
Beal (Fanduel)

IND

With Turner and Sabonis out last night, Goga Bitadze became an obvious chalk play and delivered in a big way. His price went up a bit on Fanduel, but didn’t move on DK. Depending on the status of Sabonis and Turner (both are questionable), we can fire up Goga again. He would likely be the highest owned player on DK if starting at center again. He would also be a good play on Fanduel even though his price went up a bit. We can ignore him if the Pacers’ get both of their big men back from injury. In other injury news, both Sumner and Lamb are expected to miss tonight’s game as well. I am guessing Aaron Holiday enters the starting lineup. He’s a good value if this is the case.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons - 7:00 pm

NYK

Such a tough team to figure out. The minutes and production has had no consistency for the Knicks although it’s nice that we know Mitchell Robinson is going to be back in the staring lineup. This game has the lowest total of the night and the Knicks are significant underdogs, so we don’t have to force anybody into our lineups. For the pricing, there is upside in Randle and Robinson. Robinson returns to a starting gig and Randle’s price is down because of really poor shooting numbers. His efficiency is almost certain to pick up.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Randle
Robinson

DET

We have the same injury situation for the Pistons. Blake Griffin, Tim Frazier and Derrick Rose are all out for tonight’s game. This is going to mean another game with a tight rotation. Bruce Brown has been crushing as the starting point guard and playing close to 40 minutes per game. He is still a viable option although not the slam dunk from the last couple slates since his price has gone up. Kennard and Morris both make for solid plays and of course Drummond is still a top option. The big debate for tonight is whether Drummond or KAT is the top center. I don’t think you can go wrong with either although I have a lean towards Towns.

Cash Plays

Drummond
Brown
Kennard
Morris

GPP Plays

Drummond
Brown
Kennard
Morris

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets - 7:30 pm

GSW

This game has blowout written all over it. Russell and Green remain out for the Warriors and I think it’s a stretch to call anybody on this team a safe play. Ky Bowman is fine for GPP since we have seen how much Golden State is willing to play him, but he’s significantly more expensive now and I can’t say with any confidence that Bowman is going to be a good per minute fantasy producer all season. For GPP, my favorite play here is Alec Burks. He played a season high 28 minutes last game and his workload has slowly been trending up.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Bowman
Burks
Lee
Paschall

HOU

There is upside here against an awful Warriors’ team, but Houston is at home and the spread is 15.5 points. Harden’s price has gone way up after his last performance. With Westbrook back, it’s going to be tough for him to replicate what he did last game. Through in the risk of blowout and I am off Harden in this spot. If I have to pick one guy to play in GPP, it’s going to be Westbrook. He’s played well all season and his salary hasn’t moved much on either site. Edit: Eric Gordon has been ruled out with a hamstring injury and bad jump shot. Ben McLemore is a serviceable punt play.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Westbrook
McLemore

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks - 7:30 pm

CHI

Here is another team I really dislike. Coach Boylan is one of the bigger donks in the league and sat his starters for most of the fourth quarter in a competitive game last night. In the post game press conference, he said it’s because building a bench is key to learning winning basketball. I’m no coach, but I would think the key to learning winning basketball shouldn't involve losing every night. The only player I have had interest in targeting here lately has been Otto Porter, but his minutes have been reduced for back-back-back situations.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

ATL

Trae Young had a great game last night, but he played under 30 minutes. Unless we hear that his minutes restriction is off, it’s tough to expect him to have a massive ceiling playing 30 minutes or less. Last night, both Jabari Parker and De’Andre Hunter played increased role due to the John Collins suspension. It looks like both will be playing heavy minutes until Collins is back.

Cash Plays

Hunter
Parker

GPP Plays

Hunter
Parker
Huerter

Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors - 7:30 pm

SAC

Remember when the Kings were one of the most promising young teams in the league? All is took was firing Dave Joerger and hiring Luke Walton to throw the team off course. Boylen, Walton and Fizdale are in a three-man race for Worst Coach of the Year. It’s one of the less heralded trophies handed out at the end of the season. In recent games, Fox as started to pick up his play even though the team is a mess. He’s a low consideration GPP play in a tough matchup.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Fox

TOR

There are some pricing discrepancies here. Both Siakam and VanVleet are considerable cheaper on DK than they are on Fanduel, making them playable for GPP on DK. It’s tough to figure there is much upside in the Fanduel prices for the Raptors even though the matchup against the Kings figures to be a simple one compared to last season.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Siakam (Draftkings)
VanVleet (Draftkings)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies - 8:00 pm

MIN

Coming back from suspension, Towns is my favorite player to pay up for tonight. Prior to his wrestling agains the tag team of Embiid and Simmons, KAT was a fantasy monster, playing an increased role on offense. I expect him to pick his production back up here he left off and we could see his assist numbers rise if Jeff Teague is inactive. Teague is listed as questionable to play with an illness and his absence would open up some cheap value. Jarrett Culver could draw the first start of his career and he’s already in line for extra playing tim since Shabazz Napier is out.

Cash Plays

Towns
Culver

GPP Plays

Towns
Culver
Wiggins

MEM

I am starting to wonder if Valanciunas is going to be held to around 25 minutes all season. I thought his playing time would be more significant by now and ti actually dipped last game. JJJ is returning from a one-game absence because of a knee injury, eliminating the value we had in Memphis from its last game. This makes the Grizzlies a team we can avoid.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks - 8:30 pm

ORL

The Magic play at a slow pace, their offense sucks and nobody plays heavy minutes. All of this equates to a lack of DFS upside. Fultz is fine as a GPP play since he is cheap and continues to start, but there isn’t much else to see here. Terrence Roos is out tonight although he wasn’t playing a ton of minutes, so it’s hard to think his absence opens up much value.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Fultz

DAL

Luka has been great in his sophomore season. He’s threatening for a triple-double every night and I can’t completely ignore him tonight on a slate where there aren’t many studs in great spots. I prefer paying up for Towns although Doncic is certainly somebody to consider if playing multiple lineups. He’s a preferable option on DK since Fanduel priced him all the way up to $11k. There is also value in Dwight Powell who’s playing time is trending up after he started the season on a minutes restriction.

Cash Plays

Powell
Doncic (Draftkings)

GPP Plays

Powell
Doncic

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz - 9:00 pm

PHI

I don’t have much interest in Philly tonight. We have Embiid coming back from a suspension playing against in Utah. The Jazz weren’t great against centers last season, but I much prefer rostering Drummond or Towns tonight to Embiid. If we had less center options, I would have considered Embiid GPP viable.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

UTA

Playing the other side of this game isn't any better. The Jazz have a ton of depth this season and, even though the team is wining, we haven't seen much out of them by way of big fantasy outings. Couple this with a slowish pace and there won't be many games I am looking to roster Utah players unless there is an injury opening up value.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers - 10:00 pm

MIL

This is an interesting spot for the Bucks. The Clippers defense has been decent this year, but it fails apart when Kawhi isn’t on the floor. Their defense is allowing 11.3 more points per 100 possessions with Leonard on the bench. This creates a deceptively easy matchup for the Bucks. We can fire up Giannis as a high end play. He is my favorite guy to pair with Towns if there is enough value to roster two stars. Eric Bledsoe is also a high upside play since he’s been putting up big games in limited minutes. If Bledsoe pushes for 30+ minutes, his upside is substantial.

Cash Plays

Giannis

GPP Plays

Giannis
Bledsoe

LAC

Without Kawhi, the Clippers are a great source of value tonight. Both Harrell and Lou Williams have seen big usage bumps without Leonard on the court. Sans Kawhi, Williams has a 34.9% usage rating and Harrell has a 30.3% usage rating. Both make for good plays in the mid range, while the cheap guys to look at are Moe Harkless and JaMychal Green. Both should see increased playing time to fill the hole left by Leonard. The last time Kawhi was out, Green had his best game of the season.

Cash Plays

WIlliams
Harrell
Harkless
Green
Beverley

GPP Plays

WIlliams
Harrell
Harkless
Green
Beverley
Shamet

Here's the wrap up. On the high end, I like paying up for Towns. I also think there is a ton of merit to playing Giannis in a deceptively easy matchup and the Clippers/Bucks game makes for a stack since there is so much value on the Clippers' side. As for the best value plays, we are going to need to more injury info and I'll have an update later in the day.

 
7.8d ago
Whiteside isn't getting paid enough... :P ;D
7.9d ago
Whiteside is getting paid WAAAAAAAY too much to do stupid the way he is... X(
8.0d ago
GL all!
8.0d ago
Good luck, late-slaters! ;D
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8.0d ago
ROTFLMAO!!!
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8.0d ago
LOL!!! That's, like, the fastest down vote I ever got... :P
  50% (2) UP
8.0d ago
I'm in several of the .25/1/2 dollar groups and GPPs on Yahoo's late slate...in case anyone wants to follow along. ;D
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8.0d ago
Sorry I couldn't come back in at the time guys...real life got in the way. Gordon Hayward is doing pretty good right now for BOS. And I'm not going hog wild crazy with him on the late slate, but I would think there's a chance for a pivot play with Duncan Robinson starting.
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8.0d ago
Rozier or lma for cash?
8.1d ago
Jimmy's price feels too low tonight on DK. Rozier is going to Chuck 25 shots up tonight and try to stick it to Boston. All the Boston players feel overpriced tonight, but I don't mind Tatum still.
  100% (1) UP
8.1d ago
thoughts on montrez tonight for fd? Or even thoughts on center plays in general?
8.1d ago
What's with all the stomach and head aches in Miami. I guess it doesn't matter except for Winslow.
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8.2d ago
Oh, don’t get me wrong, I own them. I’m just not chasing Harell’s 61 DFS points, or Williams after running 41 mins last night. And you would think common sense would dictate you run Zubac tonight, given he only played 9 mins last night. But I’ve noticed that even when he gets 20 something mins, Doc tends to run him early, then sit him later in the game. It makes no sense to me basketball-wise, And it’s frustrating as hell when you have him in a late game with a potential high scoring line, only to have those player mins remaining sitting on the bench. Obviously, I own Clippers in the late slate. But I have a few plays in the main slate as well. Just not as heavy as I did last night with Leonard out.
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8.2d ago
I'll probly have some Clippers according to Vegas anyway.
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8.2d ago
Anyone playing tonight, feel free to comment your insights. Kawhi is playing, so I’m reluctant to use any Clippers besides him. On Yahoo, I like Lillard, Bam, Rubio, LMA, Oubre, and others. It’s a small Main slate, with an even smaller late slate. And considering I scored a 350 last night in a late slate 20 teamer, but only finished 10th (tied with another manager, no less), who knows WHAT the hell is going to happen tonight! :P ;D
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8.2d ago
Todays slate seems like a tough one.
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8.4d ago
@greg great call with Giannis. I was considering fading him against a solid Clippers D but wound up playing him in a majority of lineups. I think he was only like ~10% owned
  100% (1) UP
9.0d ago
now...what the hell is Covington doing?
9.0d ago
I was worried for a while. Everyone else was bein a ball hog :)
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9.0d ago
Nice, holiday is going to be fine. Doesn’t take much at such a cheap price.
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9.0d ago
I miss drop score
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9.0d ago
Alright, he’s on fire now. One shot made in a row.
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9.0d ago
Nothing. Literally nothing.
9.0d ago
Losing me money.
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9.0d ago
Aaron Holiday what is you doing!
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9.0d ago
Yea
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9.0d ago
Culver over Okogie as well?
9.0d ago
Preferably, Aaron holiday will do more than nothing
9.0d ago
Napier officially out. Culver should be the best value tonight.
9.0d ago
@lightsout Westbrook
9.1d ago
young or Westbrook?
9.1d ago
@gehrenberg Thnx for the help.
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9.1d ago
thhx bro @robertpeters
9.1d ago
@lights richardson imo
9.1d ago
t.brown< Richardson, or fultz?
9.1d ago
@sjm Giannis, way too much blowout risk for harden
9.1d ago
@mkittaka Harkless
9.1d ago
harden or giannis for cash?
9.1d ago
@mac it’s hard to say. I’m not sure what the pricing is or who is PF eligible
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9.1d ago
If Napier plays do you prefer culver or harkless
9.1d ago
@bbqnut I think brogdon and holiday are both cash viable
9.1d ago
Gpp , I play moneyball but just to make it difficult ffs
9.1d ago
@jackie Culver
9.1d ago
@lightsout Williams
9.1d ago
@mac which site and cash or GPP?
9.1d ago
@cfairly goga is playable for GPP
9.1d ago
@agame holiday is definitely good for cash
9.1d ago
Playing anyone on the Pacers in cash tonite?
9.1d ago
@omnisyon I have a bit more exposure to Morris
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9.1d ago
Culver or Holiday if both start?
9.1d ago
@jack Russ/Lee
9.1d ago
who do you have more exposure to lou Williams or brogdon? and overall better play? @greg
9.1d ago
PF seems tough tonihgt. your fav pf plays Greg?
9.1d ago
Thanks Greg!
9.1d ago
Napier hasn’t been ruled out. He’s doubtful and is going to warmup to see if he can play. I’m not saying Napier will play, but he has a slight chance to play.
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9.1d ago
is goga a viable play tonight?
9.1d ago
@mkittaka yes, but he’s going to warmup to see if he can play
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9.1d ago
Greg where do you see Napier has a shot to play? Everything I'm reading still calls him doubtful. Just curious since I'm considering pivoting off of Harkless for Culver
9.1d ago
Holiday cool for GPP or just a cash play?
9.1d ago
DK GPP - Markieff Morris or JaMychal Green?
9.1d ago
Trae Young/Bruce Brown or Russ/Damion Lee?
9.1d ago
he's listed as doubtful right?
9.1d ago
Welp, looks like Napier has a chance to play now. Makes the Culver situation a bit murkier.
9.1d ago
@lightout i have more Luka exposure
9.1d ago
@dr. He’s confirmed starting
9.1d ago
doncic or westbrook
9.1d ago
@injuries Bowman
9.1d ago
And Teague out. Culver is my favorite value play if he starts.
9.1d ago
would you feel better with Bowman ($13) or Aaron Holiday ($10) for cash PG on yahoo?
9.1d ago
I think goga is more of a GPP play. His playing time his uncertain.
9.1d ago
Goga still cash play? looks like sampson starting at the 4 and Sabonis at the 5
9.1d ago
Aaron Holiday*
9.1d ago
Nice, Holiday starting
9.1d ago
Young is good at basketball. I'm definitely interested at over 1K less than Doncic.
9.1d ago
Thanks Greg. Right now, he's too expensive for where he's projecting on Yahoo. And to pivot to him would mean coming off of the likes of Giannis, Towns, Drummond, Doncic, Westbrook...so yeah, I don't know that I'll go after him, even in GPP. I might just build a line for kicks and see where it lands.
9.1d ago
He’s fine for GPP although I still prefer other options
9.1d ago
Trae Young in the mix now? No minutes limit...
9.1d ago
Morant is safe?
9.1d ago
@79912 not at all, Moranta production has been extremely inconsistent
9.1d ago
@sjm not sure I would play Sabonis in cash. A little wary coming off injury.
9.1d ago
Morant is safe?
9.1d ago
@dr not sure. I hope he starts, but wouldn’t be surprised if Justin Holiday ends up starting.
9.1d ago
"Boylen is really into having the bench play crunch time minutes some games because it builds a winner or some bullshit like that." LOL!!! Again, Greg in mid-season form! :D
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9.1d ago
Goga and Sabonis together in cash?
9.1d ago
@gehrenberg, are you still thinking Aaron Holiday starts for IND?
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9.1d ago
Sounds like solid 4D chess coaching to me
9.1d ago
I don’t think he will shoot 38% for the field all year, but I’m also not confident he’s going to regularly play 30+ minutes. Boylen is really into having the bench play crunch time minutes some games because it builds a winner or some bullshit like that.
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9.1d ago
Do you think lauri is just in a slump or is he acutally this shit?
9.1d ago
I don’t think there are any locks tonight
9.1d ago
whos your lock gehrenberg
9.1d ago
I Think Sabonis is a decent option, but there’s a chance his minutes are lightly restricted coming back from injury
9.1d ago
Is this a smash spot for a fresh Sabonis?
9.1d ago
@lightsout not totally sure, waiting for an update on Teague
9.1d ago
@sjm I’m okay with him. I think there are better values at this point, but I’ll have some exposure.
9.1d ago
@greg whos in your core as of now? or top 4-5 highest owned?
9.1d ago
@nbanoob usually, yes although I don’t typically make any changes at this point in the day. I’ll react to the news and post as it comes.
9.1d ago
How do you feel about bruce brown today? I like him as one of the best plays on the slate. Will his ownership take a hit with his 66% price increase?
9.1d ago
When you update the dfs article do you announce it? @gehrenberg
9.2d ago
youre a good man........
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9.2d ago
Charlie Brown active for ATL...time to dust off all those PEANUTS gang references... ;D
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9.2d ago
@jack Brown has a 16% usage rating. I can’t imagine it can go any lower. He doesn’t need to score to get his fantasy points.
9.2d ago
@so-Tex Huerter
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9.2d ago
Thanks. Would you downgrade Troy Brown Jr. if he is announced a starter? Don't like him sharing usage with Beal and IT...
9.2d ago
Oooooo, I think this next one's tricky...Yahoo GPP, G, Lee, Fultz or Huerter?
9.2d ago
@jack KAT if it’s cash, Harrell for GPP
9.2d ago
Depends on the slate and the options. There weren’t many plays I like last night, so I had 150 lineups on DK with Parker and Goga in all of them. There wasn’t anybody who I thought was realistically going to be better value.
9.2d ago
Pay up for KAT or take the savings with Harrell? This is for FD where you can only play 1 center
9.2d ago
more of a general build question @greg.. when you come up with your core of players you like what exposure do you feel comfortable with? I have been toying with making my core group of players nearly all in lately but if one of them tanks you're screwed.
9.2d ago
Thanks Greg!
9.2d ago
@al, so far in the five lines I've built, I've got Giannis in everything, while splitting the difference between Towns and Drummond, leaning towards Towns (KAT in 3, Drummond in 2). I'll probably move off Giannis for a few lines just to diversify, but through the first five, I'm liking the comp numbers I'm seeing.
9.2d ago
@so-Tex bowman
9.2d ago
@al3 Beal
9.2d ago
@So-Tex, in my current build, Starting from PG, IT3, Brooks, Bowman, Culver, JaMychal Green, I am toying with teh last three spots specifically F, C, Util. I can fit Towns, Drummond and or ABC but not all three.
  100% (1) UP
9.2d ago
@youtee pending injury updates, holiday and Beverley
9.2d ago
Yahoo GPP, UTL slot...Ky Bowman or Luke Kennard?
9.2d ago
I still feel Dillon Brooks is worth a GPP play (at least on Yahoo at $11 bucks)...even as just a contrarian play to all the other cheap guards.
  100% (2) UP
9.2d ago
utility spot on yahoo, Beal or Siakam. Lineup has Drummond and ABC. Alternatively, i can do Drummond, KAT, Siakam ( this is gpp )
9.2d ago
Who are your favorite PGs for FD cash?
9.2d ago
Got into foul trouble and then the game was one sided
9.2d ago
Any idea why Morris only played 14 mins last game?
9.2d ago
another sleeper i will play tonight is big ragu, divincenzo, i like him in that high OU to get his, hes been hot and hes streaky for the minutes he plays
9.2d ago
Brogdon, Warren, Goga, run it back with Beal, Hachimura or Brown for all the $. Deep sleeper in tihs game, Mortiz Wagner GPP at .01 ownership
9.2d ago
@gfire need a bit more info. Culver if he ends up starting or Teague is out. Brown if that’s not the case.
9.2d ago
I do like Hunter tonight.
  67% (3) UP
9.2d ago
who do you like more Brown jr or culver?
9.2d ago
Lamb is almost certainly going to be out. Big holes to fill if Sabonis and Turner are also inactive.
9.2d ago
if Lamb sits love the holiday play
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9.2d ago
What stands out to you guys?