Article

Welcome (or Welcome Back)

August 14, 2023 by Josh Lloyd View Comments

Welcome back to another season with us at Basketball Monster.

As I write this on August 14th, waiting for the site to open, there are a few key points I must convey.

At this time, Damian Lillard is still in Portland, so their numbers aren't going to feel accurate at all. To properly project Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, and others, I would need to remove Lillard from the team and redistribute his minutes and usage, which could be straightforward. However, I don't know who would be coming back in a potential trade, and that would leave Lillard without stats.

The same issue arises with the Miami Heat. Dame is likely to end up there, and it will impact players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo significantly, along with other guards. But without knowing who will remain, it's challenging to project accurately. Currently, I've reduced Bam's value slightly and allocated strong minutes to Portland's young guys, while still giving Dame his minutes. Please be aware that the Heat and Trail Blazers projections should not be fully trusted at this moment.

To a lesser extent, the situation is similar in Philadelphia with James Harden. However, I feel more confident that Harden will remain in Philadelphia. His playing time, though, is another story. If you feel Tyrese Maxey isn't projected high enough, it's likely because Harden's projections are still included.

Harden's quote today puts him in a different category. I have bumped projections for non Harden 76ers as I think there is a chance of a Ben Simmons type situation. These projections will be tightened when we understand more on the Harden situation.

Now, to the nitty-gritty.

I don't rank players in specific spots. If you ask why Player X is ranked at a certain position, understand that it wasn't my decision. We project individual statistics for all NBA players, and a formula using standard scores (or fantasy points) organizes them.

I welcome debates about specific stats, but the need for ranking players can reduce nuance in fantasy spaces. Rankings are based strictly on projections or last year's actual results, and they don't account for specific strategies like punting. Slim margins between rankings can drastically change a player's position.

Other Key Insights:

  • Variability: Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander jumped into the top five by increasing his free throw percentage. Wild swings in variable stats like free throw percentage and steals are common.

  • Overvaluation of Blocks: Straight rankings may inflate low usage big men who block shots, grab rebounds, and have a high field goal percentage. Don't be misled by mathematical quirks into drafting them too early.

  • Content Focus: Instead of flooding the site with generic articles, I'll emphasize projections and personalized content. You can always contrast your site's ADP and rank versus ours and adjust accordingly.

My Overall Takeaway:

  • Don't wed yourself to rank numbers.

  • Be aware of the overvaluation of high block/percentage players.

  • Recognize the undervaluation of low percentage players.

  • Understand that small changes can lead to large ranking changes.

I'm committed to making this season as engaging and informative as possible for all of you. If you have suggestions, requests, or specific questions that you'd like to see addressed, please don't hesitate to drop them in the comments below. Your input is essential in shaping our content, and I look forward to hearing from you.

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