Article

Welcome (or Welcome Back)

August 14, 2023 by Josh Lloyd View Comments

Welcome back to another season with us at Basketball Monster.

As I write this on August 14th, waiting for the site to open, there are a few key points I must convey.

At this time, Damian Lillard is still in Portland, so their numbers aren't going to feel accurate at all. To properly project Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, and others, I would need to remove Lillard from the team and redistribute his minutes and usage, which could be straightforward. However, I don't know who would be coming back in a potential trade, and that would leave Lillard without stats.

The same issue arises with the Miami Heat. Dame is likely to end up there, and it will impact players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo significantly, along with other guards. But without knowing who will remain, it's challenging to project accurately. Currently, I've reduced Bam's value slightly and allocated strong minutes to Portland's young guys, while still giving Dame his minutes. Please be aware that the Heat and Trail Blazers projections should not be fully trusted at this moment.

To a lesser extent, the situation is similar in Philadelphia with James Harden. However, I feel more confident that Harden will remain in Philadelphia. His playing time, though, is another story. If you feel Tyrese Maxey isn't projected high enough, it's likely because Harden's projections are still included.

Harden's quote today puts him in a different category. I have bumped projections for non Harden 76ers as I think there is a chance of a Ben Simmons type situation. These projections will be tightened when we understand more on the Harden situation.

Now, to the nitty-gritty.

I don't rank players in specific spots. If you ask why Player X is ranked at a certain position, understand that it wasn't my decision. We project individual statistics for all NBA players, and a formula using standard scores (or fantasy points) organizes them.

I welcome debates about specific stats, but the need for ranking players can reduce nuance in fantasy spaces. Rankings are based strictly on projections or last year's actual results, and they don't account for specific strategies like punting. Slim margins between rankings can drastically change a player's position.

Other Key Insights:

  • Variability: Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander jumped into the top five by increasing his free throw percentage. Wild swings in variable stats like free throw percentage and steals are common.

  • Overvaluation of Blocks: Straight rankings may inflate low usage big men who block shots, grab rebounds, and have a high field goal percentage. Don't be misled by mathematical quirks into drafting them too early.

  • Content Focus: Instead of flooding the site with generic articles, I'll emphasize projections and personalized content. You can always contrast your site's ADP and rank versus ours and adjust accordingly.

My Overall Takeaway:

  • Don't wed yourself to rank numbers.

  • Be aware of the overvaluation of high block/percentage players.

  • Recognize the undervaluation of low percentage players.

  • Understand that small changes can lead to large ranking changes.

I'm committed to making this season as engaging and informative as possible for all of you. If you have suggestions, requests, or specific questions that you'd like to see addressed, please don't hesitate to drop them in the comments below. Your input is essential in shaping our content, and I look forward to hearing from you.

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on projection screen, check edit display columns, then check minus 1 values
100% (4) UP
prouss8/17/23
How can I view minus1 rankings?
Thanks Ken, I was going to the wrong settings (the one next to update rosters, rather than the main settings tab). Apologies for the hassle, it's worked for me now.
100% (2) UP
ken_admin8/17/23
I believe you can just use the copy/paste method on your existing league to update the teams and rosters. Let me know if not.
100% (2) UP
Hi Ken, for those of us with CBS dynasty leagues, do we need to delete the league and then import again manually for all (in this case 16) teams?
I am working on a formula that is portable across formats, rather than even more subjectivity, but i can't get to something I like yet. It will come
100% (2) UP
Bump on the request for Dynasty rankings, you've made them clear in your podcasts but would love to see some numbers behind them too :D Welcome back everyone!
75% (4) UP
That worked, Thank you.
100% (1) UP
ken_admin8/16/23
The manual copy/paste method under Settings/Team Players.
What new method?
ken_admin8/16/23
Sure. Did the new method work for you?
Hi Ken. Will you be alerting those us who use CBS when you have this problem fixed? Thanks
Welcome back shaggers!
100% (2) UP
@travesty204 All good! From my understanding of the tournament, every team will play 2 games that week that count towards the regular season (December 4 - December 10). The championship game of the In-Season Tournament doesn't count, so everyone will play the same amount, at least for that week. I'm not sure how the rest of the November/December schedule look for each team since those get released on Thursday.
100% (3) UP
Yeah In Season Tourney, my bad.
@travesty204 Sorry, do you mean the In-Season Tournament in November/December? Or the Play-In Tournament for the playoffs?
Oh I see, so some teams won't play more games than others?
@travesty204 I don't think it should it affect it at all, tbh, since it counts towards the regular season.
How will the Play-in Tournament affect fantasy leagues? Or how do you think they should.
100% (1) UP
bigtickettaco 8/15/23
My greatest wish this year is for members to take some time to get to know how to use BBM and not just ask the admins what they should do. There is so much helpful info in HELP drop down in the toolbar (tutorials, FAQs, common ? answered...). There are places on BBM to crowdsource your questions under COMMUNITY. You truly are the ONLY one here who cares if you use your last pick for Coby White or Jevon Carter. Good Luck to all.
100% (13) UP
ken_admin8/15/23
Lots of new Yahoo positions this morning.
100% (5) UP
Stienba 8/15/23
Hey Josh, thanks for the good work, I've tried out BBM for the first time last season and loved the service so here I am again! Am I crazy or did Yahoo drastically reduced the positions for players ? I feel like a lot of players now have a unique position vs last season. Also in a Dynasty mode who would you keep/trade among a group of centers with Timelord/Poetl/WCJ/Mark Williams (also have AD but he's not going anywhere). 12 teams league and lost in Final last year but I need to drop one to get an additional SF
GrmRbrts 8/15/23
There we go. Thanks man. You saved me a lot of work. Hope you can forgive my ignorance. Cheers
100% (2) UP
You just need to set up a league and enter in underdogs scoring and then it will sort
100% (3) UP
GrmRbrts 8/14/23
I see what you're saying about league settings how you can use points per stat function. But no I don't have a league set up. I was asking because I wanted to sort players by fantasy points based on your projections to use for points league drafts on underdog. Sorry for being unclear and annoying.
Have you got your league settings in? Because if you do, they should sort by fantasy points
GrmRbrts 8/14/23
They are sorted by per game stats. I must be missing something
you can do it on projections page. the players are default sorted by projected fantasy points
GrmRbrts 8/14/23
Would be great to be able to sort players by fantasy points right on the projections page. I can always do it manually on excel though
Yes of course they can. You have to have your league set up and then that's how projections get default sorted
100% (1) UP
GrmRbrts 8/14/23
Can player projections get sorted by fantasy points per game?
The irony of Julius Randle's projections being ahead of Giannis'. I kid, Josh, I kid.
100% (1) UP
I'm still working on getting a formula that makes sense.
100% (1) UP
Hey Josh! Great work. Is your dynasty stuff going to be up?
100% (1) UP
No worries with that, although im not sure if the system takes two decimals in the weighting
DG23 8/14/23
Hey Josh, I'm a bit of a filthy min/max-er so was curious on your thoughts about slightly differing weights for the stats with more variability. I was thinking something along the lines of threes at 0.85, blocks at 0.75, and steals at 0.65. Obviously small differences from your 0.8/0.8/0.7 but yea
100% (1) UP
I am still working on that. For now, I downweight blocks to 0.8, but you absolutely do not have to do that
100% (2) UP
kess1989 8/14/23
Is there a category weighting or punt build that we should apply so that we’re not overvaluing the high block/FG% players? I believe Josh has mentioned in his podcasts that he was working on a new rank that accounted for this, but am not seeing anything.
100% (1) UP
ken_admin8/14/23
We'll dedicate more resources and have an emergency backup plan ready to try to avoid any trouble this year.
100% (5) UP
Anything being done on the night before the season starts? I recall the past couple years there were issues with the Draft Tracker as the usage of the website was extremely high.
100% (5) UP
rsimon11 8/14/23
For CBS, the Baseball Monster fix works perfectly. In Fantrax, if you have a league that renews, the ID does change every year.
ken_admin8/14/23
Can you check your FanTrax ID. It seems they may have changed some IDs from last season.
drodman38/14/23
I’m having a hard time updating rosters from Fantrax too
ken_admin8/14/23
Yes, it looks like CBS has changed a bit so we'll have update our process. Sorry about that, and hopefully it's not too hard to fix.
100% (3) UP
ManchvegasBob 8/14/23
Same here regarding the CBS team/player import not working
100% (1) UP
igorlima248/14/23
Let's go!! Another season together
100% (5) UP
idkcc 8/14/23
Good to be back with you boys. Thank you Josh, ken, kyle and the bbm team for providing the best fbb analysis and coverage every year. Opening day is always a great day of the year for me.
100% (10) UP
GreenTubs8/14/23
Cheers for the early start - interesting to see Tyus' assists projected to be lower than his brother's. Given the stats we saw Tyus put up as a starter in Memphis, how much of that is expected to translate to Washington? I personally think his assist numbers are going to be closer to 8 than 6.
100% (2) UP
ken_admin8/14/23
I'll give this a look now.
100% (1) UP
#448998/14/23
Good morning Ken, its good to see you back. I use the CBS service. the Site is actively linked with my account there but when I hit the update rosters button for our league the auto message tells me rosters have been updated but they are not coming across.
100% (1) UP
ken_admin8/14/23
Hopefully fixed for you now but let me know if you see it again.
100% (1) UP
That wasn't there before. Ken will need to see what happened
Khaz8/14/23
It seems there is error on the number of games : all players have more than 100 games, especiallay Brandon Clarke with 301.
Clarkmeister 8/14/23
Thanks. Do we have an estimate of the site opening?
That is the baseline for how I use it, yes
100% (2) UP
Do we still think 0.8 for blocks, steals, threes in weightage with disregarding turnovers is healthy way of looking at projections?
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