DFS 4/10 Monday

April 10, 2017 by Greg Ehrenberg

Follow me on Twitter @gehrenbergdfs

The self exclusion option was made for people who think they still need to be playing NBA DFS.

Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers - 7:00 pm

IND

As great as Paul George has been lately, $9,900 is just not a price I am willing to pay for him. Time well tell if this is a mistake, but it is a significantly higher price point than where he has been all year. I will say that George should see a normal minute allotment tonight, which may not exist with other higher priced players.

Cash Plays

Turner

GPP Plays

Turner
Teague

PHI

Saric is still on a minutes restriction, which is expected to remain for the rest of the year. He can’t be rostered. Richaun Holmes seems to have big games whenever he stays out of foul trouble. He gets in foul trouble a lot, but this helps his GPP value because it keeps his price stay depressed. McConnell has been very steady since Rodriguez got hurt and is one of the safer plays tonight. His upside is a bit limited.

Cash Plays

McConnell
Anderson (Fanduel)

GPP Plays

McConnell
Anderson
Holmes

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics - 7:30 pm

BKN

The primary targets for me are always Lin and Lopez. Hollis-Jefferson puts up some big games from time to time and the Nets will sometimes let him play for close to 30 minutes. It is really difficult to predict when those games will come, but he has upside. He had a stretch of 4 consecutive 30 fantasy point games where he played under 25 minutes in each game.

Cash Plays

Lin
Lopez

GPP Plays

Lin
Lopez
RHJ

BOS

This is an obviously great matchup for Boston, but I think there is a lot of blowout risk here. The Nets have been playing better recently, but the Celtics are 11 point favorites. They are also fighting for the one seed in the East and haven't been resting players. If Boston gets out to a big lead they could use the opportunity to limit the minutes of their starters.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Thomas
Horford
Crowder

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat - 7:30 pm

CLE

The expectation is that the Cavs will be resting a lot of guys tonight. Lebron was spotted out partying as late as 5 AM last night. It seems extremely unlikely that he will be playing.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

MIA

Assuming the Cavs are resting everybody, this is another game wth blowout potential. The Cavs don't have much offensive firepower with the big 3 inactive. Dragic is a strong target due to the Cavs weakness at defending the point guard position. Everybody else is just a GPP play for me. Waiters may be playing tonight, which could really make the Heat’s guard minutes difficult to predict.

Cash Plays

Dragic

GPP Plays

Dragic
Whiteside
James Johnson
Whiteside

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons - 8:00 pm

WAS

John Wall and Otto Porter are both questionable and I expect them to be game time decisions. If Wall can’t play then Jennings would start and become a very strong value play. Oubre started in place of Porter last game and was serviceable as a DFS play. He has been playing a decent amount of minutes lately and doesn't see a massive bump if Porter is out, but he should see a small increase in playing time.

Cash Plays

TBD

GPP Plays

TBD

DET

The Pistons had announced that they were releasing Beno Udrih, but then found out the they missed the deadline to waive players. Bad NBA teams are very disorganized compared to the other major sports. Boban has crazy per minute production and is expected to play between 20-25 minutes again today. He is a good target once again. I wouldn't play Ish Smith unless Wall is ruled out. If Wall is out then Smith’s matchup goes from a strong negative to a positive.

Cash Plays

Boban

GPP Plays

Boban
Smith (if Wall is out)

Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls - 8:00 pm

ORL

Evan Fournier is questionable and if he can’t play then Jodie Meeks would draw another start. He is averaging about 20 fantasy point per game this season, which would make him a decent value play with a plus matchup. The Magic’s minutes are a bit tough to trust. They were apparently going to start limiting the minutes of Ross to open up playing time for Garino and Hunt, but it hasn't happened.

Cash Plays

Meeks (if starting)

GPP Plays

Meeks
Ross
Payton

CHI

Wade is back in action, but his minutes are still being limited. Rondo has been ruled out and Jerian Grant will start again. He has played 30+ minutes in the last couple games, but the Bulls' point guard situation has been all over the place this year. It is possible we see Grant play just 15 minutes tonight, which makes him a bit risky. Butler is the safest play on the board in my opinion.

Cash Plays

Butler

GPP Plays

Butler
Grant

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks - 8:00 pm

CHA

The word on the street is that Walker is being shut down for the year. Brian Roberts is the likely starting point guard and should play a ton of minutes at a minimum salary. Batum will have a bigger role in the offense and be the primary playmaker for the final couple games of the year.

Cash Plays

Batum
Roberts

GPP Plays

Batum
Roberts

MIL

Milwaukee is still fighting for playoff positioning, which makes Giannis another good guy to pay up for this evening. He should be locked into his usual 35-40 minutes with good production. There is going to be a ton of value tonight without a ton of great options to spend up.

Cash Plays

Giannis

GPP Plays

Giannis
Middleton

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers - 10:00 pm

SAS

I am off the Spurs for now. Portland is resting everybody and this game has a very high likelihood of being a blowout. I think the Spurs will either be resting guys, or at least playing their key guys limited minutes. If they do end up resting players then there will be value here.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

POR

The Blazers will basically just be playing Aminu and a bunch of extremely cheap guys with Lillard and McCollum both resting. Napier is going to be playing point guard at a min price, so I think he is the best bet to lead the team in production. It is very hard to guess where the minutes and usage will go, but somebody will have to score some points for Portland.

Cash Plays

Napier
Turner

GPP Plays

Napier
Turner
Aminu
Leonard
Harkless
Vonleh

Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors - 10:30 pm

UTA

George Hill is expected to play on a minutes limit and Gordon Hayward has been ruled out for tonight. While this is a tough matchup on paper, I am expecting the Warriors starters to see a downtick in minutes which makes the matchup slightly easier. Favors has also been ruled out, so I am expecting a bunch of minutes from Joe Johnson and Jinglin Joe Ingles.

Cash Plays

Ingles
Johnson
Gobert

GPP Plays

Ingles
Johnson
Gobert

GSW

I am probable off the Warriors for these last couple of games. My feeling is that nobody is going to be playing heavy minutes. I think the starters are all going to be held under 30 minutes. With this matchup and their price tags, I think this makes them difficult to roster.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers - 10:30 pm

HOU

The Rockets are another team that I am mostly off of. I think Harden can still be used in GPP, but I am expecting him to see limited minutes. This is the second night of a back to back the Rockets are locked into their playoff spot. I don't think it is out of the question that Harden ends up being rested.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

Harden

LAC

The Clippers are still looking to lock up home court advantage in the first round. Their trio of Jordan, Paul, and Griffin are about as close to safe as we are going to get tonight. I am worried that this game could be a blowout with the Rockets limiting minutes of their starters. Houston has nothing to play for.

Cash Plays

Griffin
Paul
Jordan

GPP Plays

Griffin
Paul
Jordan
 
17.1d
gehrenberg
He's 24% on fanduel and 25% on draftkings
17.1d
So-Tex
Yahoo DFS...K Love, 6% in the $1 dollar multi, 9.1% in the $5. I managed to get him into one lineup for each...crossing my fingers! ;)
17.1d
gehrenberg
100% (1) agree 
Here's a way to explain gpp vs cash players ak Murphy. Player A is priced 6k and scores 30 fantasy points every game. Player B is priced 6k and alternates games with 20 and 40 fantasy points. Assuming neutral matchups and ownership player A would be considered a cash game player and player B would be considered a gpp player
17.1d
gehrenberg
But I agree 100% on trying to target teams/players with something to play for
17.1d
gehrenberg
Boohaa I don't think love will be low ownership. I would expect him to be the highest owned power forward on the slate assuming everybody saw he's playing. 1.73 fantasy points per minute with LBJ and Kyrie off the floor. I would expect him to be pretty chalky, but I could be wrong
17.1d
gehrenberg
100% (1) agree 
Some guys are very high variance which makes them too risky to play in cash games. But the variance can be preferred in gpp because it can mean certain players have higher upsides with lower floors
17.1d
gehrenberg
100% (1) agree 
Just a joke because these are some serious degenrate slates we are getting into
17.1d
ak murthy
Can someone help me understand why some players are better for GPP than cash? Also I don't understand what this means: The self exclusion option was made for people who think they still need to be playing NBA DFS
17.2d
boohaa
100% (2) agree 
Ok freeebie since yall been so nice. Target people who games matter tonight. Cp3, Blake, Jame johnson, Dragic, Josh Richardson, Tyler johnson, ABC, Middleton, PG13, Thad young been hot lately too now that hand healed? Throw in some outside long shots low ownership include K Love, Jennings. Sneaky long shot play Evan Turner is a ball handling SF, he should have a lot of touches if he stays out on floor.
17.2d
boohaa
Neither, take Jennings if its GPP... TjMcconnell > Ish
17.2d
tjzwarych
0% (1) agree 
Ish Smith or TJ McConnell?
17.2d
dsmiami
50% (2) agree 
"The self exclusion option was made for people who think they still need to be playing NBA DFS" ak murthy mrachek kslight bm1234 al3bd3v skywalka2000 boohaa Bely714 LeslieFrazier
17.2d
gehrenberg
Love in. So much usage for him. Great play if he gets the minutes
17.2d
mrachek
100% (2) agree 
These articles and projections have won me loads of money on FanDuel. Wish you guys kept it going for MLB would have subscribed in a heartbeat
17.2d
kslight
It's free, but we do have Baseball Monster. https://baseballmonster.com/default.aspx
17.2d
gehrenberg
This was super fun for me to do as well. I am really happy I did this and I really appreciate you guys interacting with me on these every day. You guys really don't know how many career opportunities this has opened for me that I never really had considered before. Everybody who comes to me with ideas for content related things brings up the interactive aspect of these articles
17.3d
bm1234
As others have echoed, your NBA articles are great. It's been a great year for me, partly thanks to your articles. BTW MLB is way too high variance for me. I rather play tonight's NBA slate 100x over than MLB slate. Unless you are doing a similar article for MLB :)
17.3d
al3b3d3v
went against Pineda today, got crushed. but the colorado stack is still in play, chalky chalk goodness.
17.3d
skywalka2000
Do you guys have a projection site for baseball?
17.3d
gehrenberg
That's a good question bm. I'm not sure of now, but I would guess I won't be doing them for playoffs
17.3d
boohaa
Played MLB, made some money last week; Its very painfull though. Still playing NBA till the wheels fall off.
17.3d
Bely714
100% (1) agree 
Thanks Greg. Sounds like I should make the shift over to baseball then. I'll be listening to your podcast. You, Josh, and the BM projections were a huge help in making my introduction to NBA dfs a profitable one
17.3d
bm1234
Are you doing these articles for playoffs?
17.3d
gehrenberg
I am with you Leslie. These slates are very difficult to play. I am in full baseball mode
17.3d
gehrenberg
Bely to be honest I can't remember how the playoffs played out last year. I did play some NBA gpps for playoffs. I won one playoff gpp on fanduel last year, but I think 100-200 people had the same lineup, so the payout wasn't great. I would guess same nights will be playable but most nights won't be
17.3d
LeslieFrazier
I had planned on playing NBA until the end of the season but this is a lil too crazy for me! Thanks for doing these articles, helped me out a lot this year. You should consider charging more $. =P
17.3d
Bely714
Haha yep...the BM player alerts page is entertaining. How many rounds into the playoffs do you consider "good dfs play"? First round only? Or do sites typically offer multi-day slates in order to increase the player pool?