DFS 3/15 Wednesday

July 3, 2017 by Greg Ehrenberg

Follow me on Twitter @gehrenbergdfs

I am listening to Fred Hoiberg. This should go well.

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers - 7:00 pm

CHA

Batum has been ruled out for tonight with a migraine. He has also been listed as doubtful for Saturday as he undergoes further testing. Even though Jeremy Lmb’s price has risen I still think he is a fine play for tonight. He is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game as a starter this year. As good as Marvin Williams has been recently I am not willing to lay his current price for him. I don't think he will continue to hit 60% of his shots nor do I think he is going to keep pulling down 15 rebounds a game.

Cash Plays

Walker
Lamb
MKG

GPP Plays

Walker
Lamb
MKG

IND

Well the minutes were there for Thad Young last night, but he just didn’t do much with them. In his last 2 games he has played 38 and 37 minutes. He was nearly a 6k player earlier in the year, so there is upside at a price tag in the 4k range when he is playing just under 40 minutes. Myles Turner had a breakout game last night and had his first double digit rebounding game in nearly two months.

Cash Plays

George
Young

GPP Plays

George
Young
Turner

Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards - 7:00 pm

DAL

After shooting barely over 40% for the first part of the year, Dirk’s shooting percentage has evened out to his norms from the last couple of years. I think this is at least in part to Dirk working through injuries to start the year. Noel is going to be active tonight, but I don't want to roster him on a 10 game slate because I think his minutes are likely to be a bit limited. I am guessing knee soreness is what was preventing him from playing huge minutes the last couple games he was active.

Cash Plays

Dirk
Barnes

GPP Plays

Dirk
Barnes

WAS

This is the Wizards first home game in a while as they are coming off of a 5 game west coast road trip. Washington played well on the road trip, although they played mostly garbage teams. Marcin Gortat has had extremely unstable minutes since Mahinmi came into the rotation. It is tough to know if Gortat will play 20 minutes or over 30 on any given night. Mahinmi has been plying at a much more realistic level after his crazy 7 steal game.

Cash Plays

Wall
Beal

GPP Plays

Wall
Beal

New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat - 7:30 pm

NOR

I was very heavy on Demarcus Cousins last night. He was well on his way to a monster game, but unfortunately the game was a blowout so he only ended playing 30 minute and barely saw the court in the fourth quarter. The good news is that his price is once again depressed tonight and I think he makes for another really strong play. Davis briefly left last night’s game with an ankle injury, but only missed 2 minutes of the game. He should be fine for tonight.

Cash Plays

Cousins

GPP Plays

Cousins
Davis

MIA

Dragic missed last game with a comically swollen eye. It was completely closed shut. The swelling has gone way down and he will be playing tonight. The eye injury should be a non issue and shouldn’t impact his play tonight. I am expecting the Heat will have to play bigger lineups to compete with the Davis/Boogie combo, which I think means a couple extra minutes for Whiteside and James Johnson.

Cash Plays

Whiteside
Dragic
James Johnson

GPP Plays

Whiteside
Dragic
James Johnson

Minnesota Timberwolves at Boston Celtics - 7:30 pm

MIN

Ricky Rubio is back in action tonight and he actually has a good matchup. He has been tearing up teams despite getting pounded by bad matchups lately. I am going to be all over Rubio now that he has an easier matchup. His shot attempts have been way up lately. It looks like he may be figuring out how to make shots in addition to his incredible passing.

Cash Plays

Rubio
Towns

GPP Plays

Rubio
Towns
Wiggins
Dieng

BOS

Avery Bradley is one of my favorite shooting guard plays tonight. He no longer has a minute restrictions, so he should see north of 30 minutes tonight. He only played 25 minutes last game, but it was due to the game being a blowout. Bradley has played well since coming back from his lower body injuries and the only thing holding him back was his minutes restriction. I don't see any reason that he wont get back to the 7k salary he had earlier in the year.

Cash Plays

Bradley

GPP Plays

Bradley
Thomas (Draftkings)

Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons - 7:30 pm

UTA

The Jazz have everybody back healthy, which limits their value. To add to this they have a relatelvy tough matchup against the Pistons and both of these teams play at a slow pace. I don't have any Utah players in my player pool tonight.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

DET

The Pistons are playing Utah tonight and this is the second night of a back to back. I feel good fading them tonight.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls - 8:00 pm

MEM

Chandler Parsons has been ruled out for the year with knee injury. It was a need a banner year for him in his first season in Memphis. I would expect Vince Carter to start again tonight. He is coming off of a monster game, but I will be fading him in GPP tonight. I think his ownership will be inflated due to his last outing.

Cash Plays

Conley
Carter

GPP Plays

Conley
Gasol

CHI

Fred Hoidberg said today that he is going to shorten the Bulls rotation. My expectation is that Rondo, Wade, and Butler will all log heavy minutes tonight. Cameron Payne has been ruled out for tonight and he had been the Bulls backup point guard. As much as I don’t like Rondo as a real life player it is hard to ignore his upside when I think he will be logging heavy minutes at such a cheap price. Mirotic finally reentered the rotation last game and had a good outing. I wouldn't be shocked to see him start over Portis tonight. If he does he would be a solid value play.

Cash Plays

Rondo
Wade (Draftkings)

GPP Plays

Rondo
Wade (Draftkings)
Butler
Mirotic

Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets - 8:00 pm

LAL

The Lakers have named 4 of their 5 starters for tonight. They haven't said who will start at shooting guard, but I suspect it will be Russell starting as the 2 guard. Zubac has also been named the starting center for the rest of the year. Clarkson will start at point guard, which I am guessing will be his role for the rest of the year.

Cash Plays

Randle (Fanduel)
Zubac

GPP Plays

Randle
Zubac
Russell
Clarkson

HOU

The Rockets are projected to score an absurd number of moments. Their Vegas line has been set at 126.5 points, but they are also favored by 17.5 points. Harden should put up a ridiculous amount of fantasy points if he gets to stay in the game through four quarters, but I have doubts that it will happen. I will definitely have exposure to him, but I am not sure how much right now. It depends on how the rest of the slate shapes up.

Cash Plays

Harden
Capela
Beverley

GPP Plays

Harden
Capela
Beverley
Williams
Gordon
Ariza
Dekker
Anderson

Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs - 8:00 pm

POR

I am going to be fading Portland tonight. They have a tough matchup in San Antonio and are 11.5 point underdogs so there is some blowout risk. This is also the second night of a back to back for them and they are projected for under 100 points.

Cash Plays

None

GPP Plays

None

SAS

LeMarcus Aldridge is coming back after missing 2 games with an irregular heartbeat. Luckily it turned out to be nothing serious. Tony Parker is questionable and Dejounte Murray has been ruled out. If they are both ruled out then Patty Mills would have to play heavy minute again. He played 37 minutes in the last game.

Cash Plays

Mills (if Parker is out)
Leonard

GPP Plays

Mills
Leonard

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns - 10:00 pm

SAC

It is really hard to know wha the minutes allocation will be for the Kings. It is also possible that they end up resting players again. They are one of the most difficult team to predict right now. I recommend avoiding their backcourt due to the uncertainty around them.

Cash Plays

WCS

GPP Plays

WCS

PHO

The Suns looked like they were toning down Booker’s minutes a bit, but they have gone back up in the last few games. He has played over 37 minutes in 3 of the Sun’s last 4 games. The Kings have been one the best matchups in the NBA for shooting guards this year. Allen Williams has been a great per minute producer this year, but he hasn’t been getting a ton of minutes lately.

Cash Plays

Booker
Warren

GPP Plays

Booker
Wiliams
Warren
Chriss

Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers - 10:30 pm

MIL

This is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the night, but Draftkings has priced everybody way down for this game. I don’t really understand the reasoning. This is my favorite game to stack on Draftkings.

Cash Plays

Giannis

GPP Plays

Giannis
Middleton (Draftkings)
Monroe (Draftkings)

LAC

The pricing for the Clippers’ stars is really ridiculous on Draftkings tonight. Not only are the Clippers expected to be one of the highest scoring teams on the slate, but the Bucks have not been an elite team at limiting fantasy production. They do well against points guards, but they have been struggled against forwards and centers this year. I am going to be loading up on the Clippers on Draftkings.

Cash Plays

Paul (Draftkings)
Griffin
Jordan

GPP Plays

Paul
Jordan
Griffin

I am trusting Holberg tonight, which may be a mistake. Only time will tell. I would really like to hear the logic on what is going on with the Clippers' prices on Draftkings for tonight. If anybody has a reasoning for it I would love to know.